Police forcibly dispersed entrepreneurial action January 21, yesterday held Trials its participants. Why did the authorities reacted differently to the protests on January 10 and January 21? How to evaluate a comment Alexander Lukashenko to these actions? What are the prospects for the protest movement has business?
Participants: entrepreneurial movement activist Lev Margolin from Borisov and editor analytical bulletin "Belarusian Week" Alexander Klaskouski from Minsk.
Why did the authorities used force?
Valery Karbalevich: "During the action on 10 January the police behaved quite cautiously. She did not touch the protesters, relaxed has allowed to block traffic on the main avenue of the capital. But the January 21 riot police broke up a little share. A controlled power operation Interior Minister Naumov. What prerequisites such a different approach to the business of protest? "
Lev Margolin: "Surely, after the first action on 10 January in the nation was to be held any meeting to
which was considering the business case for the protest. Certainly, there are two kinds. Some, sure, offer concessions, while others sought to use force. Overcome by another spectacle. Maybe reprimanded and Naumov. Because to fix it and ran overclocked shares. "
Alexander Klaskouski: "Of course, January 10 was a point of confusion authorities. After the first time announced a brand new protest group.
For example, autumn opposition rally held by the projected scenario. And now came outside apolitical people who stepped on the toes of their ailing economic interests.
The action was attended by representatives of the opposition. Followers parties, opposition youth sufficiently technologically economic slogans translated into a political channel. Came an explosive mixture. Because that demonstration was unsafe and unpredictable for the authorities.
I think after the fact was indeed a "debriefing." Certainly, it was decided that if the concessions, it will cause more damage to power, people will feel its weakness. Who will lose one — will be released tomorrow with the requirements of other groups. And so it was decided to apply the power scenario. And about your style power makes no sense to worry because he is so bad. "
Karbalevich: "It seems to me that the power to force scenario pushed another factor. They have seen that the scale of the protest is not built up business, because you can not be afraid to use force and courage"
Trials of protesters
Karbalevich: "Yesterday, the trials of the 22 detainees during the action. Moreover, in contrast, of 10 January, the vast majority of them — entrepreneurs. Half of them received fines. But after the events of January 10 all got arrested for 15-20 days. Than you explain to such a difference in the strategy of repression? "
Margolin: "Since January 21 were arrested specifically entrepreneurs, and then made a mild punishment. After pazatrymlivali not organizer, and the rank and file shares. And the authorities do not want to create for himself new conscious opponents.
The authorities know the organizers on January 21. But it will delay them? Lukashenko also said that business was not there, they went because beheld that their substitute. "
Klaskouski: "Before January 21 the authorities put the puzzle neutralize favorites businessmen and youth activists. Because courts give them 15-20 days. And it gave a certain result, during the action was not felt tribute to the organization.
And at the moment when even give arrested on 15-20 days, still to follow the action announced on February 18 they come out of prison. Besides huge fines — is also a strong whip. In the end, when arrests cause a reaction in the West, the international resonance of fines significantly less. "
Karbalevich: "Yesterday, finally spoke about the protest and businessmen Alexander Lukashenko. After 10 January, he was silent on the matter, and now spoke. How do you explain to? And possible to comment on his statement? "
Margolin: "It was already the second resounding action businessmen. Because Lukashenko could no longer remain silent, as this could be interpreted as weakness.
He voiced the same version that authorities offered after January 10: it was an action not businessmen, and opposition. But this version has no effect. After the shares had a lot of people about this many media reported. "
Klaskouski: "First we need to note that Lukashenko, for all its ematsyynastsi, able, when necessary, to withstand a break. During crisis moments when the scales vary and it is unclear where they will swing, he is silent. So it was during the gas wars with Russia, during last year’s campaign a day Will.
On January 21, it became clear that the protest wave uniformly goes down, repressive measures produce fruit. In addition, at the time of Lukashenka’s statements to this question was already prepared the ground for public relations. Municipal propaganda claimed that the opposition is fueling the fire.
Coupled with the fact I would have said that Lukashenko’s statement looks restrained and multilayer. There was a clear message to those businessmen who are wary of the politicization of the protest. Say, fellows, what do you do not wilt and sharply distanced themselves.
There was a promise to the population and to say: we still needed foreign investment, and such a mess spoil the picture of our stability, and because it is out of place. "
What are the prospects for the protest movement has business?
Karbalevich: "But entrepreneurs continue to fight. Declared strike a new rally on October Square appointed on February 18. Does it seem to you that this is a rearguard battle? Until February 18 the majority of businessmen already determine what to do: goes into the status legal entity, or register their own employees as a business, or to finish their work. Which perspective is the protest movement businessmen? "
Margolin: "The decision to follow the action on February 18 due with 2 reasons. In 1-x if favorites are arrested after the January 21, even if they are given for 20 days, until February 18, they will be free.
In-2, the entrepreneurs, who fled to private unitary enterprises have until February 20 to submit the report to the tax office. Then many will learn that hastened do. Because action on February 18 can be meaningful. "
Klaskouski: "If you listen to the statements favorites entrepreneurial movement and the opposition, there prevails bodrenkaya tone. I think it superfluous optimistic statements.
After mass and individual entrepreneurs apolitical conformist. Part of them wary of attempting to politicize the movement. In many of them the illusion that one can agree with the authorities "on the concepts."
These people accustomed to think pragmatically. Life has taught them to adapt to the situation. They are accustomed to survive in the most adverse economic criteria. And at the moment they are trying to adapt to the new rules. They have something to lose, except your own chains, to paraphrase a classic. And they currently think about how to find new, maybe grayish scheme.
Because government strategy — to take business of attrition — can give the effect. But lyatentnaya discontent in this environment remains. And in the long term it could be unsafe for the authorities. "
Margolin: Most business uses grayish scheme: employees continue to work, but illegal. And then everything will depend on how this will relate power. "
Karbalevich: "So Makar, the authorities have embarked on power act in relation to the movement of entrepreneurs. Apparently, no other methods of communicating with disgruntled citizens in today’s ruling te
am does not have."
Tags: entrepreneurs, Klaskouski, Margolin