Slowing global economic growth will negatively affect the demand for Belarusian products abroad, and price increases energoelementov lead to a deterioration of trade criterion. So Makar, access to external financing Belarus may be even more limited. However, some Belarusian experts believe that the costs of the global crisis for Belarus may have not only negative consequences.
Analysts predict recession virtually Worldwide. Prerequisite — an acute crisis, which has led to a collapse in the money markets. Crisis as economists foretell, in the near Time will deepen, and in the following year a large part of national economies start with a huge budget deficit.
According to the report of the International monetary fund mission working in Belarus in September, Belarusian management
will need to seek additional resources to maintain stability on the background of the declared external factors. Namely, there will be the need to compensate the announced increase of salaries to state that necessarily entail a reduction of municipal programs funded through municipal banks. A larger portion of the estimated price increases energoelementy, experts say, will have to pass on to consumers.
Economist Stanislav Husak in solidarity with international professionals about what to build Europe’s only "command economy" can not guarantee a place in Belarus on the sidelines of global processes. least as Belarusian control consciously "tied" to the Russian national economy, which, in turn, at the moment in the financial crisis:
"Belarus, as well as for the communist time, 80% has an economy and centralized decision. Moreover, the economy of Belarus — is faster, it’s a political, not economic. On this first imposed ties with Russia, even the prices of fuel in the end dictated by the political situation, rather than economic. Because say how affects us all these troubles occurring in the global economy, it is very difficult. It may even be the opposite of makinground a. Lukashenko I did? In building prescriptive model of the Belarusian economy, he reached the "perfection". But the story was finished, one dyrektyvnastsi are not enough, because he quite got under the influence of Russian politics: all the economic steps that Lukashenko does almost 100 percent dictated by the political will of Moscow. In the global economy of Belarus integrated and could not. "
Visiting recently KGB, Alexander Lukashenko also acknowledged that the global crisis is unlikely to pass from Belarus. He said if the collapse of the money market in Russia stretch for the following year, it adrezanue and Belarus — as a strategic partner of Russia. Namely, saw Lukashenko, "it will be harder to sell products for export." Our homeland — the main client "made in Belarus."
One of the positive reasons for the financial crisis is considered to fall in oil prices — blown crisis turns industrial sector output and can not consume as much oil. Prices came down in some regions this has led to a decrease in fuel prices. In these criteria suffer first country-oil traders, who had enormous profits from the sale of raw materials to the outdoor markets. In this series, and our homeland, which soon grew rich by leaps and bounds.
Expert in energy issues Valentin Mackiewicz convinced that true Belarusian management does not agree to the Kremlin’s ultimatums constructive increase in energy prices. In the conditions of rapidly falling prices of raw materials there is a possibility to save. This concerns first gas contract for 2009:
"It is necessary, of course, take into account that Russian oil companies had difficulties. RF Government even considered the question of granting a loan to the oil companies who have taken a very huge loans from foreign banks (which, incidentally, applies to" Gazprom "). Now is time calculated for loans because virtually financial position in the oil companies, as in "Gazprom" very aggravated. But as far as the situation with Belarus, in other words aspects. If you take the price of gas, it is tied to oil prices. other words the requirements of, that the cost of natural gas for Europe should be somewhere 400-500 bucks, no longer has the same argument. Because, on the one hand, it is easier — relief that the oil is already less than 90 bucks on the New York Stock Exchange and has a tendency to wait plunging further. Perhaps because of this, when Putin was in Minsk, no agreement, the parties have not signed. "
Tags: crisis, enarganosbity IMF