What might be the cost of Russian gas to the end of next year? These questions and more discussions are in the program "Examination of Liberty" political analyst Yuri Chausov and columnist "Belarusians and Market" Tatiana Manyanok.
Tsigankov: "In the first quarter of 2008, the cost of Russian gas for Belarus will be 119 bucks for a thousand cubic meters. Understandably, this value is the result of a meeting in Minsk Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin. According to your opinion, is it possible to see this as some" gift "of Belarus, and what it can explain exactly these numbers? "
"At this point we expect the gas wars quarterly"
Chausov: "It should be noted that 119 bucks — it is still increasing, and significant enough, by 20 percent. If you look at these numbers, it is just 67 per cent of the price that Ukraine will pay. Naturally, this is only the first quarter, and further, it is clear that price for Belarus will be formed on the basis of market prices energoelementov. While we have more political discount, but she had already counted on the market price of gas. In this sense, the situation is qualitatively new.
Tsigankov: "Not in vain this political discount exists only on the first quarter, when in Russia will hold presidential elections and appears brand new situation?"
Chausov: "Speak as if previously Belarusian-Russian gas wars were like the Olympics — summer and winter — at the moment this satisfaction awaits us on a quarterly basis. Thing goes in the direction of relations with Belarus in the energy sector into the mainstream of accepted standards.
Manyanok: "Just at the moment are rising some details of the agreement, which was signed in late 2006 between Belarus and" Gazprom ". According to the agreement, in the first quarter of 2008 the price of gas for Belarus should not rise by more than 19 percent. This is what happened. ‘Cause about any gifts for Belarus can not be read.
On any gifts for Belarus can not be read
The rest of the period increase for Belarus will be based on European prices. And it will match 67 percent of syarednyaevrapeyskay prices, as foreseen in the contract.
That in the first quarter of the cost will be so, did not know that none of the journalists. But this know Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Semashko because he is so confident and read about 119 bucks. I myself found out about it from a reliable source in the government until now. The Belarusian side is not very pleased with the fruits of the negotiations because they were talking to reach revising the formula itself, because binding to evrapeykay prices are not very satisfied with Minsk. "
The only thing that Belarusians bargained for — a loan and a half billion dollars. But, as I understand it, this is not a gift because the parties agreed that Belarus still perceives education formula gas prices. A Russian side to somehow appease the transition period, this gives credit — enough suitable criteria. And GTA enables Belarusian government pursue the same policies, without changing anything in the economy. "
List of capital trumps
Tsigankov: "If 119 bucks — it is absolutely not a gift, it does not allow it completely differently evaluate the results of the talks between Putin and Lukashenko?"
Chausov: "If you adopt an old methodology American" kremlenolyagav "and evaluate the results of the negotiations on the faces of the participants, it is natural person Lukashenko was not like a person’s favorite. Seen that the negotiations were complex and the Belarusian side is not very pleased with them.
As for the loan, it is a strategic step in Moscow. In addition to the energy stranglehold Moscow at the moment and decided to add the credit noose. Sum of external debt in the summer approached 10 billion dollars, the size of debts belarukih allow state that in the event of adverse developments in the energy market and based on our disappointing trade balance appears the threat of default. So Makar, Our homeland will be able to blackmail Minsk not only energetically, and the danger of default.
What will be needed from the Kremlin Belarus — we can only guess. They say that it may be payback Belarusian enterprises and indisputable discovery of the Belarusian market for Russian products — it was foreseen that the appropriate agreements, but the Belarusian side is so far not fulfilled. Some even they say that Belarus agree to organize strategic weapons on its territory, or — closer to reality option — Belarus will give its air defenses into submission capital management, as it was also foreseen by the agreement, but the Belarusian side and did not do " .
Tsigankov"What is the cost of gas Belarusian economy in the current state can withstand without structural configurations and external borrowing?"
Manyanok: "We need to talk about the fact that it is time to start reforms, but not those selling accessories that we attended this year, it does not increase the efficiency of the economy. I believe that a cheap gas — it is even more critical, the market value of the gas pressure on the government and management companies adapt faster to the market situation. "
Tags: Our homeland, prices Manyanok, Chausov, gas, Gazprom