Kozulin — last card in the pockets of power

These and other issues in the transfer of expertise analyst Yury Chavusau Liberty and past editor of "Zgoda" Alex Lord.
Tsigankov: "Today was released political prisoner, activist" Young Front "Artur Finkevich. College of Mogilev Regional Court in criminal cases could see the appeal reversed the decision of the October Finkievich Court Mogilev on punishment Artur Finkevich to eighteen years in prison. Recall, he was convicted on December 20. Second fact: January 4, at a press conference salting France Mireille Musso hopes that 2008 will be a watershed in relations between Belarus and the European Union. How can I connect these two facts? What can explain the government’s decision to release Finkievich? "
"Street shares made for the critical power situation — either release or tighten the screws"
Hurt: "I have explained to the release of political prisoners in general prerequisites and consequences of the strip. This is the result 2-reasons — international and domestic. International — this foreign influence and pressure of Western countries, the United States and the European Union. But in a sense of, the transition to market relations with Belarus undermined the financial support of the regime. Maybe at the last meeting of Lukashenka, Medvedev and Putin had some advice on the part of, which do not need to stamp odious policy of Belarus.
And internal factors. It is associated with economic nyavstoylivastsyu created in the near future — and the presence of the opposition. I mean youth activities and events business. In fact, its street protests they made critical situation for the government — or tighten the screws or loose.
But in these liberation is an element of trade — in Zhaleznichenka fighters, Andrei Kim — a criminal case, and Dashkevich and Finkevich release. "
Tsigankov: "Here is another important quote from yesterday’s press conference of the French Ambassador Mireille Musso. "We welcome the release of 3 prisoners. And cherish the hope that will be followed up and other release. We know the role played in this release sire Lukashenko. Of circumstances that I did not want to explain here, salting Germany has played a special role in the liberation. And I think that he drew such makarom own contribution to solving the issues I have mentioned. "Not for the first time officially acknowledged that the release of political prisoners is a subject of intense diplomatic efforts. Who still proportion of external and internal reasons in the release of political prisoners? "

Yuri Chausov

Chausov: "I would not share the optimism that the internal factor or opposition pressure play a significant role. We we see, that the release of single persons comes amid massive administrative arrests for fake police testimony. Read that repression braked flywheel — it would be unjustified.
Certainly, in the release of the iconic persons granted international recognition as political prisoners — the main role of the international community. Another thing is that the role of the Belarusian human rights organizations and political structures was that their names were called for months in discussions with foreign politicians, diplomats, and it was a day or agenda items international against Belarus — specifically, the release of political prisoners. Therefore, one should not stop this resonance continue indicates that there are political prisoners in Belarus. "
"You can arrest 10 prisoners later release 7 — and branded liberal and far-sighted politician"
Tsigankov: "How could a significant Russian factor, which has already started to read Alex Lord?"

Lord Alexei

Hurt: "The most important everything is still western factor — the EU and the U.S. (sanctions against" Belneftekhim "). But significant shift of the Russian Federation and to market conditions with Belarus. Now Our homeland itself helps to plug these holes with the same cash loans. In this sense it supports the Minsk regime, but first she was worried about preserving their influence on Belarus
I still go back and re-emphasize the importance of intrinsic factor. I do not mean the scope of the shares, and the creation of critical mass of young people and businessmen who are forced by their selfless actions stagger power. And it shows in fact Finkievich — yesterday condemned, and now released. After all, if condemned, did not know what the next step "
Chausov: "The regime has chosen a rather theatrical strategy. Possible to arrest the 10 prisoners after release 7 — and being branded as liberal and far-sighted politician. Pressure from the West and the East going backwards. Threatens West -" we are traded on market criteria, and now restrict them because of your bad behavior. "from Russia as they say on the contrary -" if it will be bad news, then we’ll move on to the market conditions. "
"At the present day government is not ready and will be the last Kozulin, whom she freed"
Tsigankov: Can external pressure and internal situation lead to the release of other political prisoners before, former presidential candidate Alexander Kozulin?
Hurt: "I think today government is not ready and will be the last Kozulin, whom she freed. Exemption Kozulin is the most symbolic act in this trade Belarusian authorities. Without this, the position of Belarus, its certain steps to be taken to the West by Western countries."
Chausov: "The Sovereign Lord has absolute rights in the sense of assessing the ability of the release Kozulin as sign of political prisoners. But I’ll take the role nepriznatelnuyu give a definite prognosis. In my opinion, the question of release Kozulin may appear exclusively in the criteria for the election campaign, when there will be the question of recognition of parliamentary elections and House of Representatives of the new convocation. Kozulin — this is the last trump card in the pockets of power, and they will keep Kozulin was still quite long. You can read about the end of the year, when, by the way, will be a formal possibility of parole. "

Tags: Kozulin, Lukashenko, Finkevich, dialogue, Europe

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