Lukashenko problem: between ruler and lyres Ceausescu

And what to expect in the political life of Belarus in 2008? Will the parliamentary elections a catalyst for change? What is the impact on the situation in the country will have the results of the presidential elections in Russia and the United States? Either extend the 2008 political repression? What configuration will occur in a peremptory class country? On these topics in the program "Examination of Liberty: results of the year" in the first day of the new year, says the director of the Belarusian Institute for Strategic research Vital Silitski and political analyst Alexander Fyaduta.
Drakakhrust"What are the important actions in the public life of Belarus will be held this year? What do you expect that predict? Fyaduta Alexander."

Fyaduta"I — shy, so I do not expect anything. Indeed, if we assume that significant event in the parliamentary elections, then we can assume significant event every day that we have lived.

If we assume a weighty event parliamentary elections, then we can assume significant event every day that we have lived.
A. Fyaduta

The only thing that is significant — it is an attempt to Alexander Lukashenko comprehend what to do next. Not what to do next with the state, he realized that he was at an impasse, and what do most: to stay or to leave the president. Regardless of these efforts will be forthcoming judgment, the consequences of these attempts will have fundamental implications for the entire country and for all the people. "
Drakakhrust"Vital Silitski Alexander Fyaduta still began with the election. You not once wrote about the so-called" miracle "sudden election when in different countries authoritarian government held elections, believing that their predestined, but the vote and the following actions brought surprise. Do not you think that the parliamentary elections in 2008, contrary to the expectations of the Belarusian authorities can bring the same surprises? "

Silitski"Next year is unlikely, because opponents of the government behave accordingly with scenarios that this government offers them. Samples is not rethink what are essentially election, opposition to rethink their own goals. Everything is done according to the standard scenario, like a script" miracle "elections, but for which there is no reason.

Government opponents behave accordingly with a script that offers them the power.

Because I do not expect a breakthrough, and the processes that will take place inside the government itself, including the preparations for the elections, will be more exciting than any confrontation between the government and other stakeholders. "
Drakakhrust"From time to time activities that occur outside the country, making it even more impact than domestic action. Held in 2008 such actions, which, in general, able to make a significant impact — it’s March presidential elections in Russia and the November in the United States. Vitaly, in your opinion, it somehow affects the Belarusian situation? "
Silitski"Well, the elections in Russia have already taken place, although we do not know who will rule Russia. This will be determined not on the elections themselves, and to them and after them.

Elections in Russia have already taken place, although we do not know who will rule Russia.

I think 2008 will be held in Russia under the sign of determination, who will manage it. This situation of uncertainty will give respite to Alexander Lukashenko and his system of government, but I believe that before the end of the year the question of power in Russia, and then settled down to begin the new scenarios, taking into account the economic affairs of Belarus with Russia and everything else. "
Drakakhrust"Alexander, and your eyes, as the impact of the situation in Belarus, these two, and perhaps other international actions?"
Fyaduta"In my opinion, influence, and impact very seriously. In my opinion, there will be another international event that will sygnalizavats what will happen further, I mean the adoption of the Russian Federation to the World Trade company — WTO. I have always stated that Belarusian authorities formula — is "2", two years after Russia perceive the WTO, the Lukashenko regime will have to leave.

Two years later, after Russia perceive the WTO, the Lukashenko regime will have to leave.
A. Fyaduta

As I understand it, at the moment solved, Russia will perceive in this business recently and perceive whether there Ukraine. If they perceive there almost immediately, it will mean that more Belarusian issue will be purely technical, Russia will not need to do anything special, it would need only to do those duties which imposes on its membership in the WTO. "
Drakakhrust: "Alexander, now back to the domestic situation: in your opinion, the political pressure on dissidents and the political opposition — whether it will continue or worsen after the last Russian loan? Some they say that this new "honeymoon" with Russia will continue for a year, while others believe that after a quarter start conflicts with Russia and, accordingly, Minsk embrace the West and vague, half-hearted liberalization. And what is your prediction? "
Fyaduta"A half liberalization will continue, in my opinion, in any case, since now it is about changing the style of the Belarusian authorities. And so inconsistent, but still will be liberalized. And as to increase pressure or not, I have a pretty great the case with a number of Polish analysts and politicians. And they say they are, that if you compare what is now the Belarusian opposition and that was "Solidarity" in the time of Jaruzelski, it is unclear what Belarusians complain.

When people play politics, they should be aware that this activity with great risk profiles.
A. Fyaduta

When people play politics, they should be aware that this activity with great risk profiles. Reason, this risk is greater or lesser — it’s funny. "
Drakakhrust"Vitaly, and to you too funny?"
Silitski"In 1-x, I’m not funny. Vo-2, we seem to be entering a new election cycle. Electoral cycle in us, whether true or invalid elections, significant or insignificant, is always accompanied by an escalation of repression .
And late last year sounded these symbolic statements KGB chairman Yuri Zhadobin that election cycle we are entering. But it seems that, indeed, in this time the focus will be made not only to direct repression, and on a fairly regular set gebistskoy "active measures" to not even to split and demoralize the opposition on to achieve the same result as the smallest blood .

Election cycle in us is always accompanied by an escalation of repression.

What still concerns pavliberalizatsyi, her gait will be determined with 2 factors. First — when completed mandatory dismantling in Russia, as long as they will go, I do not think that the Belarusian authorities will have a strong urge to liberalization. And second — whether there are other external actors leverage in response to the repressive steps Lukashenko. Likely — is unlikely. "
Drakakhrust"Recent sociological evidence suggests that it is in the last months of the year came, at least personally, visibly deteriorating current level. Inflation jumped beyond what was given to her that were abolished benefits. Feeling people much worse. In 2008 it deterioration would be impartial po
litical reasons, or just only increase the level burchennya in kitchens and in smoking Vitaly. "
Silitski"After the 2001 elections, 2002-2003 were marked by such burchennya, and more than if nothing happened. Since 2004 began warming up the economy in general and burchenne disappeared. Now warming resource economy significantly reduced. I’m not talking about the kind of economic collapse, but the political business cycle heating economy recently astuzhennya elections and after them at the moment to implement more complicated. Because government policy at the moment is in general a decrease in the public interest in the political events and polling as well. "active measures" on I have read, and will be aimed at the imposition of social apathy and netsikavastsi the political process. "

Heating cycle of the economy and the election the other day astuzhennya after their reality even more difficult to implement.

Drakakhrust"Alexander, and your eyes — in what form it will manifest deterioration of the actual level of irritation? Maybe it is generally lost, and maybe gain a significant socio-political dimension? "
Fyaduta"No, unfortunately, do not buy it. And this, too, must be prepared. Only thing able to make the Belarusian people — is to show the power fig in the pocket. This fig he pulls out of his pocket only when it is allowed, I mean Election 1994.
Now the power is aware that it can be, and that’s why she’s doing everything possible to not have this fig. If at some municipal enterprise not paid wages, people go to the management office, and two hours later they bring money. People are most afraid of losing what they have there, and that’s why the authorities support this attitude: "People will be worse without us."
And most of the people so far thinks so. She does not like this power, no longer trusts her, but the opposition asks: "What have you done?" Although the opposition simply does not have the ability to do nothing. "

Belarusian people nevermind pulls out of his pocket only when it is allowed.
A. Fyaduta

Drakakhrust"So in the end yours, Alexander, beloved topic: a forecast of what will happen in the ranks of the government. In 2007 we beheld sharp clan wars that emerged in sonorous resignation of the KGB, in the last year talking about the origin of the newest generation in Surrounded by Lukashenko. Maybe if in the Belarusian authorities will be a new quality, a new face, a bit of a famous turn of Franco in Spain, where in 1960 there came into the power of the younger generation of technocrats? remained authoritarian system, and power, and economics, and social life then became different. In modern Belarus could it be? "
Fyaduta"Many of my friends try to convince me that it can be. I do not quite believe in the ability of a similar power to transform, as we power — is only one person. He realizes that if he tried to reform the system of decision-making and system governance, he will be unable to keep these arms. "
Drakakhrust"Vitaly, and you predict ability such transformation? Alexander says that in Belarus obstacle it — what it is all about one person. But in Spain under Franco, too, all decided by one person. But there transformation occurred, so to speak, liberalization without democratization . the case of Belarus, the question is not even clear about liberalization, but just about the other person. It is likely or not? "

Lukashenka has no desire to follow the path straight Ceausescu.

Silitski"He seems to have somehow drawn. In 2007, there were actions that and point to this trend: the abolition of registration, cancellation of permission stamp to travel abroad, some measures of Deregulation, although quite fragile, but thanks to them in Belarus Global rating of the bank’s business conditions rose in 2007 by 11 seats. Such things happen, and they have less to do with our oil and gas processes and impartial with modernization processes that power hard to keep under control.
That, as sovereign Fyaduta said, it is all one person — it’s just, but the emperor Lukashenko no desire to follow the path straight sovereign Ceausescu. There is a lot of back historical experience. Have experience rulers who gave all the power and lost, so to say, the experience of King Lear, and have experience Ceausescu, which was held until recently graduated and because he graduated. And therefore provide for themselves in a straight line, Lukashenko tugadumnaga just not worth it, he argued that it is much more difficult being more difficult policy than it looks. "

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