For what Vladimir Putin arrived in Belarus? Why did he finally agreed to give Belarus a credit of one and a half billion dollars? What do Lukashenka’s statements on cooperation with Russia in the military sphere strategically?
Drakakhrust"For what purposes visited Minsk Vladimir Putin? The other day of his visit intensively disseminated information that Minsk Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin quickly sign the Constitutional Act of Union countries rassredotachivaniem roles: Putin — union president Lukashenko — the speaker of the union parliament.
But it did not work out. Sensation, and if accomplished, then a completely different sphere — economic, Putin said that Our homeland eventually gives long-awaited stabilization loan of 1.5 billion dollars, also said that the price of gas in 2008 will grow in line with the earlier concluded contracts.
So why did not meet expectations and some other fear about the fact that on December 13-14 in Minsk eventually built the Federal Government? "
Dubnov"The question that is about to be the Federal Government, we are discussing for many years. And here is essentially an internal affair does not change. Passes in Russia one campaign after another, but this sword of Damocles association remains constantly under all circumstances impartial .
I think that it was such a directorial find — to force people to loaf that Putin will be the president of the union of the country. After all, when developed "Operation Successor" at what stage such option existed and witnessed the despair of the Kremlin elite, because if they went on to develop such option, it means that there is nothing decent in them to do. Thank God that they have abandoned this scenario.
Now they can afford to make for themselves a smoke Zahav again. And it is obvious that no one’s interests does not answer: it is not in the interests of Belarus, is completely uninteresting to Putin, and even more so it is not interesting to anyone who will be after him, it is Medvedev or anyone else. After Putin or together with Putin — it is not so crucial.
The fact that it is necessary to find some exciting niche for Belarus, in other words, on the one hand, do not create it, the Federal Government, but continuing to develop this topic, and on the other hand, Our homeland is obviously headed for a tough confrontation with the West , less allies and Alexander G. — is such an ally that at least some ability to identify and can suddenly with Poland and Georgia, and more with anyone whatsoever.
And since we now have the expectation that there will be many enemies, we would like to deprive Alexander G. temptation to speak on the other side, take his place maneuver. So in that sense, is made entirely logical step, but I’m not totally sure that Alexander G. fulfill its responsibilities as if he gave them. "
Drakakhrust"That’s more I wish to talk about these obligations. During the meeting, Alexander Lukashenko spoke about coordination with the Russian Belarusian policy questions counter U.S. air defense system, which the U.S. wants to deploy in Poland and the Czech Republic, is also out of contract on ordinary weapons in Europe .
But the statements of Belarus in this regard have been formulated very carefully. Came even this formulation of weird that "Belarus is ready to play its role in the issue of the alleged deployment in Europe of parts U.S. missile defense system."
If you read the statement almost, then such proposals Lukashenka should refer to George W. Bush, not to Vladimir Putin. It is clear that he wished to tell the head of Belarus, but nehlyamyazhasts, seem to be able to tell from the desire as little as possible.
The same thing — and about the Contract on ordinary weapons. Lukashenko promised to promote the adaptation of in the contract, membership in which Msaskva stopped for a day before Putin’s visit to Minsk. Ale vow right for Russia to stop Belarus membership in the Treaty of Putin Lukashenko did not.
Since severe liabilities in the military-strategic sphere assumed Lukashenko during a meeting with Putin? "
Dubnov"I think the answer here lies in the political psychology of the Belarusian president. Lukashenko — a man of global ideas. He lived long enough under the influence of the idea that he can lead the Russia-Belarus alliance. Later, when this hope was lost, its place was taken by another idea — that it can play a major role between Russia and the West, at times using his position in order to blackmail Russia if not, then at least to force her to reckon with. And in this capacity, he found time to time even play the first number when Our homeland was played second.
And this leads to mental confidence that he so streamlined and so heartily tries to throw the doors open on both sides. Well, in Russia opened doors for him constantly, he knows that, like any business evolved, Our motherland can not afford to make for themselves Lukashenko open opponent. It is quite "good" it uses.
But he was already long enough and try to play on another field. Not very skillfully, without much chance, I do not think there’s his ability to become a major player more than it was capable of becoming president of the Russia-Belarus Union. But it is a reality with which to live and Belarus, and Russia, and sometimes have to listen to this and the West, placing himself in front of a nasty dream. But such a choice will sometimes appear, and Lukashenko will use it. "
Drakakhrust"Vadim, and can be more specific? Here are a few months back the salting of Russia to Belarus Alexander Surikov vaguely hinted at the possibility of placing in Belarus Russian nuclear weapons in response to the South American defense in Europe. Later, however, refutes this, including myself salting but the word was said.
On Friday, immediately after the end of Putin’s visit to Belarus, Russian General Leonid Ivashov said about the ability of targeting Belarusian impact of aviation on the U.S. missile defense facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic are also placed on areas of Belarus and the Russian shock radio aids. Sovereign Ivashov also said that Belarus, in the case of aggravation of relations between NATO and the United States could withdraw from the Lisbon Protocol on nuclear weapons and will allow positioned at the Russian tactical nuclear weapon. Do you think it’s real? "
Dubnov"Well, our generals — the same people the idea, it is also not be forgotten. But nothing in common with reality it will not have, and no nuclear weapon, obviously, will not return to Belarus. It seems to me that the general question of the defense Lukashenko quite right accepts as a virtual thing, it’s a matter of signs and control characters. And here it is very comfortable to show himself because he showed himself.
On the one hand, Moscow can allow themselves to such escapades generals, on the other hand, Lukashenko careful enough in their own utterances. Nothing real behind it is still not worth it, no real danger of a collision is not here, everything happens in a virtual ideological plane.
And because Lukashenko continues to play their game, knowing full well that no nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus will not be that personal beliefs on the basis of the balance of power will not change, and then you can allow yourself to all the maneuvers the same system. "
Drakakhrust"In your eyes — why Putin did not take a trip to Minsk Kremli
n’s candidate in this election — Dmitry Medvedev? And the second question: what are the relations between Belarus and Russia after the Russian presidential election?"
Dubnov"If you start with the second question, I’m not ready to answer it. Not ready as yet not sure whether the Kremlin really caused quite a scenario. If all goes according to articulated scheme that will be President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin, I do not think worth the wait harsh configurations. Medvedev has not even like Putin standard 1999, and Putin to the Kremlin adaptation took 2 years. Medvedev has delayed it longer, and the process will go more comfortable, because all will be around their people, will not have to fight with the past, but only with certain people of a certain modern.
As for Belarus, I think that this factor should not be overestimated. As for Russian culture in times for Belarus will pay its attention on "residual principle" and the current situations in matters of gas in transit issues in symbolic battles against U.S. military projects in the Czech Republic and Poland. And now Putin has tried to lay the foundation to make Lukashenka if not an ally, or at least neutralize an adversary.
As to why he did not take Medvedev, and who until such Medvedev? While he — everyday Kremlin bureaucrat. Putin arrived in Belarus in a very fascinating properties: in-1-x, as president, and in-2, already as Prime Minister, came to solve certain economic affairs. Open a discussion on gas prices — this is not a presidential matter. He spent such experience — how it will look in this dvuadinstve own. "