January 31, Alexander Lukashenko received German Ambassador Gebhardt Weiss. That he wished to bring the head of the European Union of Belarus, Germany? Is there a link between smooth nedavneshnim visit Minsk Russian minister of foreign affairs Lavrov meeting with the German Ambassador Lukashenko? As elections to the House of Representatives of Belarus may affect business official Minsk with the West?
Participants: political commentator Alexander Fyaduta and political analyst Vitaly Silitski.
"Playing with the West braked"
Valery Karbalevich"For the past year, the official Minsk tried to unfreeze the political affairs of the West, made specific proposals in the economic sphere, even started a game in liberalization. But this, in fact, nothing happened. European Union (EU) and the United States adhered to the position that initially Belarusian authorities have to make real steps towards democratization, and only later in relations with Belarus may start warming.
After the December visit to Minsk Putin began a definite warming of relations between Belarus and Russia. Right immediately ensued harsh statements in the address Lukashenko U.S. and South American Embassy. As noted by many of the professionals, the game with the West some time suspended. Because yesterday’s meeting with the German Ambassador Lukashenko Weiss seemed sudden. What is the purpose of this meeting? Lukashenko that he wished to justify the EU, Germany?
Alexander Fyaduta"Playing with the West stopped. Lukashenko pursuing a strategy split the Western states. Tipo U.S. spends not a good policy, and the EU — not because we have to deal with Europe. This strategy can justify himself, if Belarus will do certain steps.
Indeed, the EU — more Myagenkaya Minsk opponent than the U.S.. Indeed, in the relations between the EU and Belarus have economic reality, which is almost no relationship between Belarus and the United States. A EU strategy chosen for such a country with which Belarus has the best case, in other words, Germany. "
Karbalevich"Most of the statements Lukashenko first conversation, in the presence of representatives of the media, consisted of accusations of the address of the West, which holds Tipo incorrect policy towards Belarus. How can I extend the hand of cooperation and immediately blame? If offered his hand and heart, it is usually of praise who offer ".
Fyaduta"Anything can happen. We just did not know what was discussed, when journalists have gone."
Vital Silitski"Lukashenko at hiding their own negative things in politics in Europe. But I do not agree with the strategy of Feduta about the split between the EU and the U.S.. Lukashenko pursuing a strategy of split between Germany and other countries of the European Union towards Belarus. Or at least — a course on split embassy EU body in Minsk.’s no secret that Mr. Weiss is the issue of relations with Minsk different position than other European diplomats.
Official Minsk continues to play with the EU. But this game is not severe, but rather a game of dominoes. It is only a means to raise rates in the true game that Lukashenko is leading with Russia. He seeks to negotiate the best conditions geopolitical patronage of Russia over Belarus. "
Karbalevich"The fact of receiving the head of the country’s foreign ambassador, unless it is the beginning and not the end of diplomatic ambassador extraordinary. NOT royal matter. Even the minister of foreign affairs met with foreign ambassadors occasionally, for this reason must be severe."
Silitski"I think Lukashenko received pleasure from the public flogging of the West front of the TV. Flog Europe — this is the royal cause."
Russian factor in relations between Belarus and the West
Karbalevich"Two a day or reverse visited Minsk Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Lavrov. At the final press conference, the ministers of foreign affairs of Belarus and the Russian Federation enough accented criticized the policies of Western countries against Belarus. Is there a smooth connection between the visit of Lavrov and Lukashenko met with German Ambassador ? "
Fyaduta"There is no connection. G. Lavrov came not even a working visit and to take part in the joint board, which are held frequently. After the game in the Federal Government does not stop. And always during such events happening criticism of the West, which is opposed to the integration process. Because of Lavrov’s visit to pay a significant meaning correctly. "
Silitski"Cases of Belarus and the Russian Federation rather rutynizavanyya. After all conflicts vorachivaetsya circle. It came in December when Putin visited Minsk.
Also, there is a certain rutynizatsyya in relations between Belarus and the EU. Europe — second after the Russian economic partner of Belarus. But any changes in the quality of the relationship, I do not watch. Such shifts could be considered, for example, information that the Europeans will take the construction site of the Belarusian nuclear power plant. "
Parliamentary elections and business with the West
Karbalevich"" Salting of Germany Weiss noted that EU affairs with Belarus will depend on how you will be parliamentary elections in Belarus. How can you to comment on this statement?
Fyaduta"Prior service, the place was Weiss Kazakhstan. Him there is something to associate. Towards Belarus and Kazakhstan in the EU there are different standards. Zasole expressed sincere wish. It seems that a frank conversation with the head of a country can affect the outcome of elections. But he wrong, because it does not know that such discussions usually lead to nowhere.
But really the Belarusian authorities may decide, that in the midst of 110 deputies, which lists, as I understand it, discussed and approved, there were significant figures 3-4. On their utter that this newcomer opposition, now let’s read about the economy. Then indeed may accelerate economic issues with the EU. "
Karbalevich"If the House of Representatives will have three significant figures of the Belarusian opposition, then this is for Belarus will be almost a revolution."
Fyaduta"If there will gentlemen Lebedko Vyachorka Kalyakin, it will surely be a revolution in Belarus."
Silitski"It’s hard to read all of the EU, will read about Germany. It is more (except Belarus adjacent states) are not interested in bad relations with Minsk. This is the official line of Berlin.
But that these things are better, we need a minimum of decency in behavior of the Belarusian authorities. Maybe this and was discussed at the meeting.
But is there close to the reality of hope Berlin? It seems to me that the Belarusian authorities for the last 10-12 years concluded: dialogue begins, not when they are going to make concessions, but when they stand firmly on its own. In this case, the hopelessness of the West is ready to find ways to compromise. But such is not very good lesson learned Europeans. "
Tags: Putin, Lukashenko, Fyaduta, European Union, United States, Silitski Lavrov, Weiss, Kazakhstan