Creation of industrial production should grow by 11 percent, the same amount must ascend currency incomes. How realistic are these plans? What economic climate Belarus expects this year? Vitaly Tsigankov disputing with economist Leonid Zlotnikov.
Tsigankov: "Before the government to assess prognosis this year, let’s go back to the very concept of number one last year: inflation, according to official data, was 12 percent instead of the planned seventh Leonid Zlotnikov, on the pages of the newspaper "Belarusians and Market" you were a public discussion with the Ministry of statistics on the methodology for assessing inflation. In your opinion, what is the real figure is inflation? "
Zlotnikau: "Similarly, no one knows. According to my rough estimates, inflation was about 20 percent. Significant explosion occurred in the last two months of the year. As a result, one hundred percent for the year, these numbers just close to the forecast, which I gave. "
Tsigankov: "A few months back the government allocated more moderate number forecast. Now, of course after receiving Russian loan, they have become more optimistic. Justify these calculations?"
Zlotnikau: "The situation in the world is constantly changing. May occur, for example, the recession in the U.S., in the end — a drop in demand and falling prices for oil, metals and others. If that happens, then, for example, those 20 percent return, which has Zhlobinsky Metallurgical Plant will disappear. And so on. But another thing is that inside the most Belarusian economy is better observed trends. Ended the period of recovery of growth when the relics were not applied, was free labor — now none of this in almost all areas. Under these criteria, each percentage increase will cost a lot more expensive than it was a year or two back. Because so may happen that there is no growth in general will not be. "
Tsigankov: "Aside from keeping any international emergency incident — may be whether to perform the forecast growth in real currency income by 11 percent without further foreign borrowing?"
Zlotnikau: "No. It is unrealistic. This a cheap and long Russian loan for one and a half billion dollars covers our needs only six months. Necessary to have to give up what was previously loaned. According to my calculations, these Russian money is not enough to cover all the" holes. "Because any optimism about the 11 percent I have not. "
Tags: forecast, Zlotnikau Development Economics