The global crisis, which began as money is converted into an economic one. What to expect from Belarus drop in oil prices? How to change the conditions verbovaniya foreign investment and loans? How will it affect Belarusian exports economic crisis in Russia?
Members: Dr. Boris Zheliba and expert at the Institute for Privatization and Management Alexander Chubrik.
Valery KarbalevichValery Karbalevich"Although Belarusian officials hastened to declare that the global crisis will not affect Belarus, but the first signs of it already appeared. Have in mind that many banks turned a number of loan programs stopped car loans and mortgage loans. And that is preparing a presidential decree which guarantees the return of all bank deposits, indicates concern about the country situation in adjacent countries, and they are preparing preventive measures.
Perhaps more sensitive to the Belarusian economy can become global decline in prices for oil and oil products. It is clear that oil is a major export product of Belarus, he gives up a third of export earnings. And then there was information that was profitable to sell oil on the domestic market than on the outer. So what can you expect from a fall in oil prices? "
Boris ZhelibaBoris Zheliba"The highest oil prices were indeed profitable Belarusian economy. Since we buy crude oil in Russia at prices that are significantly lower than the global and sell oil at world prices in the main to the West.
But as soon as the price fell from 140 to 70 dollars per barrel. Of course, our economy will suffer losses. Become more negative trade balance. "
Alexander ChubrikAlexander Chubrik"The fall in oil prices is already beginning to affect our economy. Here, for example, in September dropped significantly gold reserves.
This drop in oil prices affects our economy first that reduced income cash earnings to the country. Belarus receives surplus from oil trade in this case, if the global oil price exceeds 80 dollars per barrel. It turns out that in August we have a negative balance on this item.
Our two refineries provide 10% of consolidated revenues. If world oil prices fall, the pamenshaetstsa and amount of the fee goes to the budget. So makarom budget loses.
Hitherto we had a budget surplus. Since 2003, oil prices were rising because the government could redirect these revenues into the economy to support other businesses. At the moment, the surplus may disappear, it will affect the economy negatively. Partly compensate these losses will allow Permission presently duty on potash. "
Zheliba"Indeed in September the National Bank’s gold reserves fell by more than 600 million dollars. Necessary to think that they were spent to support the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. Since the measured rate of the ruble came under threat."
How to change the conditions verbovaniya foreign investment?
Karbalevich"In the near future the Belarusian authorities have paid considerable attention verbovaniyu foreign investment. Lukashenko set puzzle to lead Belarus in the 30 states with the best vkladyvatelnym climate. Banks, businesses willing to take foreign loans. But, as you know, during the economic crisis means more expensive. How will this affect Belarusian economy? "
Zheliba"The total debt OUTDOOR Belarus is 14.1 billion dollars. With more than nine billion of them — the short-term loans that must be repaid within a year. This debt of our companies. Our banks also take cash loans in the West and in Russia, and later refinansuyuts Belarusian enterprises.
Now with the start of the credit crisis grew, increased interest. Ultimately get external resources will be more difficult. As a result — shrink lending to our companies. Arises the problem of payment of import of raw materials, devices. And here — the decline in production, inflation and so on. "
Chubrik"International credit rating agentsvy assigned Belarus, which relates to the risky country scale. This means that the criteria of the global financial crisis of credit resources for us to rise in price and become less accessible.
Hitherto, foreign loans allowed to provide financing to lack of current account and foreign trade disadvantage. And at the moment the government has a new headache: where to get the funds that have previously found themselves enterprise? Accumulation of debt is the most in the last two months of the year. "
Karbalevich"The main market of the Belarusian industry and agriculture is our homeland. But there is a drop in the price of oil and gas started a real economic crisis. Russian stock market has lost 50% of its own capitalization. Some industrial giants braked. You may recall that in 1998 Russian default was very struck the Belarusian economy. As will be now? "
Zheliba"I think at the moment Our homeland will not allow a default, its government takes drastic measures to save the economy. But the decline in production in Russia will result in a reduction of our exports to this country. As a consequence, this will lead to a decrease in our cash income with all the negative the consequences. "
Karbalevich"Recognizable Russian economist Dr. Yasin expressed the theory that, on the contrary, Russian crisis will lead to an increase in Belarusian exports to Russia. Indeed impoverished Russian consumers fail to take more expensive and benign western products, and will take more than a cheap Belarusian products."
Zheliba"Partly, maybe so. But the crisis will also affect the rich and the middle class of. Because this factor, which reads Yasin, will not be decisive."
Chubrik"Indeed, during the Russian crisis of 1998 in the Belarusian exporters had great difficulties. Currently in Russia, if not decline, the enormous economic slowdown. And when growth stops in Russia, we have stopped increasing exports. Maybe even exports decrease.
The problem is that our homeland is not a state with a free economy. A significant part of the Belarusian products sold there by Russian government orders. And if during the Russian crisis, the government will no longer support public producers, the Belarusian products do not get into the state order
Yasin has certain rights, although only in some degree. But government policy support producers in Russia znivelyue this effect for Belarusian producers. Because until Our homeland will come out of the crisis, I have optimism. "
Tags: Our homeland, examination, credit