On what areas of the Belarusian economy affects more global monetary crisis? Can remain steadfast Belarusian ruble? On these and other issues in the transfer of "Examination of Freedom" responsible economists Mike Zaleski and Dmitry Babicki.
Vitaly TsigankovTsigankov: "Despite assurances by the authorities, the cash crisis has already started to affect Belarus. Significantly decreased the number of Belarusian banks providing loans to housing. October 15, many banks increase interest rates on loans issued, and some foreign banks have limited or ended Belarus cash loans for the purchase of products, automobiles and construction of dwellings. In your opinion, how high strength of these trends and what more could you ask Belarusian citizens as a consequence of the financial crisis? "
Zaleski"It should first focus on how to reach us this crisis. Belarus open to the world, but not the monetary side, and factory. We do not market such securities and bank instruments that are in the West. But we are very related to commodity markets, and through this connection to the commodity markets, energy market, we feel the pressure of the crisis. Because the first who discovered it — oil, those associated with gas and those who serve the cash flows of these companies. "
Tsigankov"Indeed, Belarus is closed to the world economic and financial, but its economy is very open on the basis of belief dependence on exports. Outweigh What happens here? Will zachynenasts evade the crisis?"
Dmitry BabickiBabicki"Zachynenasts not help us in any way. Fact that at the moment investors are wasting, and our not being spent — it is not states that our situation is better. We just do not have investors.
Or simply tools we have other investment: it is not the action, not securities — and, for example, real estate. What will happen to its price, is unclear. I believe that can happen recession and our domestic investors are also confused.
I fully agree with the sovereign Zalessky that cash universities have not developed — because the crisis will affect indirectly through commodity markets. And I think I can drop rate of our currency, and all citizens will feel it. "
Tsigankov"As for the Belarusian ruble is already a big debate. Some say that he would surely fall, representatives of the National Bank also argue that it is not in danger. What are your arguments? What stronger influence on the Belarusian ruble?"
Mike ZaleskiZaleski: "In Belarus ruble stronger influence the president. If he choose to have a course held want stability in this area, even the loss of exports, may be made such a step — the banks will increase the guarantee on deposits and ensure people return a larger amount funds than at the moment. We rate may be retained discretionary decision politicians. Indeed it is related only to the social policy management. Zahochut make the illusion of stability — create, and little can let this course.
But the prerequisite for the formation of the real exchange rate will be only the effectiveness of our exports. Here again, the paradoxical situation — when in Russia becomes less cash proceeds (as it will be less because of falling oil prices), we can respond in Makarov, the Russians will have to take more products, which they did not take earlier because taking a Western. "
Tsigankov"You state that over the course affects exports. But the negative balance of Belarusian exports has long been negative, this year the negative balance of foreign trade for the six months was $ 2.2 billion, but the course is kept borrowing costs zabugornyh. Can the government continue not lend so little? The crisis just means there is nowhere … "
Zaleski"Maybe borrow. Under certain guarantees and using some conflict around the capital geopolitical aspirations. Minsk could also use the situation around the food market and the growing role of potash fertilizers and food products."
Tsigankov"The biggest prepyadstviya in connection with the cash crisis likely in the banking sector, which is usually more than the slave monetary crisis. Oct. 10 notable international rating agency Standard & Poor’s (S & P), reduced long loan with a measured outlook on" bad "for 13 Russian banks. Some of them not so long ago purchased Belarusian banks — for example, Alpha Bank bought" Mezhtorgbank. "Can these difficulties Russian spread to Belarus and in what form?"
Babicki"Of course, the Russian banks tied to the oil and gas industry is currently experiencing a crisis. These banks face shortage of resources, plus the global situation is such that means more expensive. This whole trend being transferred to Belarus — we litsezreem that loans become more expensive, give them less try to recover issued.’s all bad for business entities and the public.
But read on a large-scale crisis in Belarus, not to pay deposits, asset freeze — until advance.
Tsigankov"From time to time, and crises have a beneficial effect, as, for example, had positive consequences for the Russian default in 1998. As a result of the crisis from time to time leave or disappear, those who work inefficiently, and this economy is recovering. Could there be such effect, or the government will not tolerate even minor bankruptcy banks? "
Babicki"I think that some small banks may close. Hardly government will intervene here, not counting procedure returning the deposits of the population that we are guaranteed by the state. As for" natural selection ", in Belarus is unlikely to work, because the market regulated with the state. And at the moment you can already state that the government does not want to recognize the crisis, the government did not react to it. Conclusions some can do when you recognize the problem of some kind — but when you say it does not exist , you can not expect any configurations. "
Tsigankov"What other sector of the Belarusian economy will suffer more, not counting the bank?"
Zaleski"Tolerate an not only the banking sector suffer building and refining. There are calculations that the price of oil below 75 bucks its processing is becoming unprofitable."
Tsigankov"What is in a position to make the Belarusian government, yield to find — perhaps together with Russian partners?"
Zaleski"Well, just Russian partners appealed to Putin, so he gave them the money. Alekperov read that "Lukoil" he needs from 2 to 5 billion to pay off losses, allegedly caused by the crisis. In fact it is a systemic crisis throughout the Russian oil and gas.
That to us … In Belarus, while the socialist system. Whatever the price of oil, our oil mill will work, even with the loss, will sell oil abroad, as the state currency is needed. But to f
ill the whole emphasis of the budget will be made on the "Belaruskali", it will abrade the budget because there are market prices grow well. "
Tags: money, money, crisis, exports