Drakakhrust: "Signals that the Belarusian economic policy changes occur, began to arrive from the middle of last year: quite remember privatization" Velcom "and velyazavodu, constantly going debate on the privatization of several other companies, including the so to say" generic silver " .
Today sensation was the abolition of the "golden share", one of the major obstacles to foreign investment. This week, Alexander Lukashenko, met twice with the delegations of British businessmen and politicians, promising the most favorable conditions for overseas, namely, the British investment.
There are facts, there are words — is there a trend? Can you say that mades significant steps towards liberalization of the state economy, and more directly, the liberalization of foreign capital criterion? Mike Zaleski, who your answer? "
Zaleski: "We can say that there is eagerness, a desire, and it is due to certain reasons — real difficulties. They are connected with the fact that we trade with are not very well it turns out that we are Russian trading, staying in burns. This needs to be addressed and it is necessary to lure funds. saw that borrowing does not go, because the economy is not built, and a pyramid scheme. needed direct finansovlozheniya. was thought people with means to us are as bad conditions. Come elevate conditions. But it all begins not from the head, I think. "
Drakakhrust: "Lena Rakov, and what is your answer — what we are looking at the moment, this is another wave oscillations or brand new trend?
In 2001, before and after the presidential elections was also said much about liberalization. Elections were held, the words vanished into thin air and all remains as before. "
Rakov: "I just wanted to remember the 2001 — 2002 years, and the words that seemed then. Compared with the time at the moment a lot of really really made and declared to do even more. Can obviously argue, not a lot of it or a lot of but I believe it is — start a trend.
How long this trend will act as we go too far in this liberalization — there may be different views. But the question of whether there is a trend change, I say — yes, there is. "
Drakakhrust: "Sergei Balykin, we recalled in 2001, but there were only words. Currently, in the 1-x," Beltransgaz ", in-2, Velcom — half a billion dollars later velyazavod — well, there is little money but also on the fundamental object. can say that this brand new policy, or this point the transaction, and the whole line remains the same? "
Balykin: "As long as I have to be skeptical about the steps sovereign Lukashenko and his team. Something really was made, for example, a decree on tax deductible for small companies, but it concerns a small number of these small companies. Bulk of small businesses, we have a in the form of individual entrepreneurs and their reality in general try to eliminate as an institution.
Was produced more such steps. Abolished the "golden share". But it is for always its existence was used only 25 times. It in fact was not the decisive factor. No, she realized frightened investors, defenders can read how we have violated the rights here, but its impact on the economy was not significant.
I would immediately brought this analogy. Was once such a decree number 40 which foresaw extrajudicial confiscation of property at the request of our president. This decree was used to practice a couple of times. When it was canceled, then states began liberalization and guarantee facilities. But what is the guarantee?
Well, slightly simplified tax system. But the system of administrative management of the economy, as punishment entities remain and nothing they do not canceled. "
Drakakhrust: "By Lena views, rotation policy occurs, according to Misha and Sergei possible while carefully read about each specific configuration. But what are the reasons for this turn either of these configurations?
Increased prices for Russian energoelementy certainly was a test for the Belarusian economy, but if you look at the macro-economic characteristics, the situation does not look tragic: not very highest inflation, GDP grows, the first two months of the year increased by almost 10%. Foreign trade balance went in January this year it amounted to 34 million dollars. So why change the policy, which, as it seems, has the effect, gives the fruit?
Thus, liberal economists have long offered to change it, but over the years in response to sound, that Belarus invented miraculous economic model that thrives without all the privatization, liberalization and other foreign "abomination." And then it turns out that it’s not disgusting, and almost the only means of salvation. And what did happen, from what saved? Economics as flourished and flourishes, which then skaromitstsa these liberalization-privatization? Lena, do you think? "
Rakov: "In fact, I believe that there is valid set of reasons. And changes occur at different levels. Privatization" Beltransgaz "- a forced move, I would not count against the manifestations of liberalization. Same velyazavodu privatization was very exciting because factory is located in the center of Minsk with a pretty huge piece of land. And vkladyvatelnom agreement can be written that we continue there is something to get up, and some shops put out of production and there engage in the construction of commercial real estate.
In my opinion, some changes vkladyvatelnogo legislation related to the fact that the Belarusian capital he wants to meet somewhere. It’s no secret that a significant portion of foreign direct investment — is also its Belarusian funds that time were bred in Cyprus or Swiss offshore. It’s time to invest in their country. It was not so hard to do, but something had to be simplified.
On the other hand, really need a flow of currency, because some transactions will bolshennymi sales from a purely fiscal goals, because the country needs money.
As for business, it hard to distinguish any one cause. But nuts twisted so that everyone started to complain. At the same time complained not only private entrepreneurs, many of these criteria relate to and municipal companies. And they are concerned by the regulation of prices, to them as well, though not as often, come check penalties. And the number of these complaints at some point had to grow in quality.
In my opinion, there is an important role was played by the National Bank. We were so low credit ratings that at some point people in the government began to read: "Well, where are we? According to the rating of the Global Bank, we — 178 place at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development we are worse than Uzbekistan. Well all- the same is it? Let’s change something. "
There was a range of different reasons and the players: the National Bank, the government, business associations, the council on foreign investment, international financial organizations — each made their own contribution. Here it gradually and start falling apart. It further also go slowly, do not think that tomorrow we prachnemsya with 2 taxe
s and without price regulation. Such drastic reforms occur when the country is really bad. In the case of Georgia for the year occurred katigorichnye configuration because adkatvatstsa was already nowhere. In our case, we can only read about the evolutionary, incremental configuration. "
Drakakhrust: "Sergey, and what is your answer to the question why certain configurations of economic policy still occur if the macro level, everything looks fine enough.’s On days of Prime Sidorsky did report that he all of us grows and thrives. So for Why then change the fact that for so many years has proven its effectiveness? "
Balykin "Realize blossoms and grows — it is a noteworthy performance. For example, we grow GDP. GDP But you’re not going there. Must grow wages. And he just does not grow. At the same time the prices of products in our country is higher than abroad. Through statistics, we can write any number, but the number living conditions will not dignify. Thus, the GDP grows at us, but grow and utilities and people increasingly difficult to pay the rent. Grow food prices . grow when housing prices and food, it notes that the level of life of the people is going down. "
Zaleski: "As they say, if topissya, then vhopissya at straws. Here life crushed so that led to behold that our economy becomes not only software, and hardware nyasumyashchalnaya with their environment. Phenomena occur around us: in Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland, in Russia everything is done differently, but we remain like a piece of the USSR. And here it is already clear that conduct certain transactions, even in its favor, it becomes impossible. Right Lena said: you must have the means to pull back, and according to what rules? By sssravskih? So is it then drag them here, maybe it’s better to Lithuania or Poland. But it’s still home and begin because certain configurations, such rebuilding begins in the minds.
But believes that these huge realization that occurred are the result of such configurations, even in advance, as long as people are still affected by work, so to speak, on-line — there was the problem and we blocked it.
And if you look at what happens to GDP, I would immediately drew attention to the fact — and the authorities, by the way, it has already seen — that we begin to lose productivity. We both started doing in 1991 ruble wages 2.90-3.90 rubles GDP, so virtually no configurations do to this day, except that the pre-election wage increases. Now that’s tangible, it jeopardizes national competitiveness. Here it also causes certain changes in their heads.
Here you, Yuri, recalled Sidorsky performance. He also said Sidorsky then we 70% of the agricultural companies are unprofitable. We provide clear that indicator. Why, when we build a market economy, we have such a huge amount of loss-making companies and continues to live there? "
Drakakhrust: "There is the usual notion that at least some increase in economic freedom leads to higher welfare. Liberty, including financial, better freedom. Belarusian economy is obviously not enough freedom. According to the Global Bank, shred personal sector in the development of Poland’s GDP, Ukraine , Lithuania, Russia — more than 70%, in Belarus — only a quarter. But there is also the experience of Gorbachev’s perestroika, when close to Russian state economies have allowed cooperatives, removed the barrier between the Exchange and "nalichkoj." In the end, new forms of economic circumstances become not strengthen Russian economy and its destruction.
In today’s Belarusian economy — excellent or bad, all somehow fit together. Enter into it some elements of economic freedom, the entire structure will not fall, it became clear that all need to change? Sergey, there is such a problem to those who make decisions in the Belarusian economy? "
Balykin: "Those who make decisions in the Belarusian economy, the government has already delayed almost 14 years. 14 years they have these nuts were clamped, and now they say that they are doing some kind of benefit. Appears question, but why would they?
I think that a large utility, liberalization, no. There is an attempt to transform their own political capital in the economic capital. And you a look: the same liberalization, privatization is the same, they are the same non-public. How to sell the same Velcom — someone with someone conditions for some opaque schemes, these funds were invested. And thus give relief only certain business entities. "
Zaleski: "Here are superimposed many things. And the eminent Belarusian mentality and rural origin of most of our favorites. People are well aware that if you put a jet engine on a cart, it will spread to hell that impact. Joke jokes, but they behold the what our government. This undemocratic power as institutions imperative unbalanced. No ships, no other free some things that should be on the farm.
We can not perform two main principles of capitalism: the inviolability of supplies and the implementation of agreements. The Belarusian government is currently administrative method reaches a certain order that is. And I think if you let in entot administrative procedure a few sips of oxygen, that is decompression sickness, oxygen intoxication, like a diver and it all starts to go racing.
People are afraid of this, so what then is the role of the "vertical", "horizontal" and "diagonal" when everything will work on self-organization when market mechanisms will encourage people, and I will not need to ask their reports on 150 pages. "
Rakov: "We live in modern Belarus, we have what we have. But in at least some such country like ours — it means a non-free, non-free, economically and politically — there are two options. Such a system is inefficient, while over time, this inefficiency built up and at some point need to make a decision. And there are only two: either to tighten the screws, and we move in the direction of Cuba or North Korea, or we unscrew them. Both options are bad.
I can only rejoice that we have decided to unscrew the nut. I do not exclude that there affects the experience of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, it does not provide the ability to tighten the screws, there is a market, and we need to keep the interaction with them. Crackdown at some point lead to dissatisfaction. And it will have to fight with him ways rigid military dictatorship.
Behold the power that companies now can not withstand such amount of employed people need to lay off. What should I do? Many obviously leave, but not all, and what to do with them? Please — a decree of unprecedented benefits for small businesses in small towns.
Obviously, there is horror, and because no one makes any sudden movements towards liberalization. Their no need, because the system is still stable, something she gets up, taxes are paid, every once acclimated. But of course, that in the long run in this system there are limits survivability. And the more this will be enforced liberalization, even more so, as you rightly saw changes will be different. "
Drakakhrust: "To my untrained eye, the Russian debate about the advantages and shortcomings of different types of economic policy lacks soil group, if you like — class interests. Necessary to do wrong, as well, and will be better — they say economists. And who better? Everyone better? peasants or better or work better, or better bureaucracy, either
by economists better? Either one is better and worse than others? What vested interests are behind one or another candidate of economic policy?
Obviously, in a country with an authoritarian form of government, these interests can not be seen, it seems, the latest manifestation of their exact protests began small businessmen. But look how these different economic policy options, including brand new segodnyaschy liberalization policies on the basis of belief specifically vested interests? "
Rakov, "Well, there are many who profitably. Decision caused by a variety of reasons, and interest groups that stand behind them, too different. Clear that the nomenclature itself will not forget. In today’s Belarus, unfortunately, we can only read about the nomenklatura privatization .
Any privatization of what is better than none, although it is clear that it will be transparent and we will choose the deal: one sold, he resold to someone else. We will see more than one fascinating deal. Power their interests will not forget.
On the other hand, there are certain interests or those of other officials. National Bank sees the danger — a negative trade balance, which is necessary to make up for something. He has a clean Prof. enthusiasm to ensure a flow of capital into the country.
At the level of companies and government awareness comes the most terrible that can be with Belarus — I call it "maldavizatsyyay." When people just leave. Leave as the youngest, most educated. Already at this point sound complaints — no teachers, no doctors, no builders. 5 more years of such policy, and will remain there some elderly people, everything will be expensive, and we will live on those payments that went to Moscow and from there helps parents.
Our situation allows read that many will benefit from liberalization. While I realize that no matter what cause liberalization bundle become richer, and the poorer. "
Zaleski: "Since there is no consulate of Belarus, nobody in our Parliament represents neither the interests of farmers, nor the interests of the poor, both in Russian time -" all people, "that there is a struggle between different groups of nomenclature. We are not out of communism. These people of party committees and party committees of people’s kids joined toiletries and measure their own depravity solve those or other problems. This may be the "siloviki", it can be bankers, industrialists, farmers, but it is — representative of the interests of different parts of our administration of the command country. "
Drakakhrust: "Sergey, how would you answer the question of who stands for what politics? After all policy choices for the country — this is not an academic argument. To a large extent the policy is not carried out, which someone assured everyone that she best, and the policy for which there are stronger social interests. "
Balykin: "I believe that the policy of limited liberalization profitable nomenclature profitable our bureaucracy, which in our country — only powerful class or clan. Our bureaucracy will tend to do what they call the liberalization makarom so, that, in-1 x on it to make possible more money though by what means, and in-2-x, y, and their enthusiasm has not to lose control levers municipal economy. "
Drakakhrust: "Sergey, well, if that’s true liberalization per se, in which you are interested, half DOLE officials fly to the street and no one will not be needed. This will benefit them?"
Balykin: "At some point they will fly. But true liberalization they will be able to find a job in some small business entities. And if ordinary skilled worker, you work for yourself otyschesh. Another thing, if you lost the qualification if you tsyagnessya to bottle of vodka, then you really do not need anyone. Well then sit and get some of the country’s social benefits. But in fact, even the one who reaches for a bottle, will also benefit, since then as a result of liberalization of funds in the state will more profitable and will give him the funds only for the fact that he was not walking to work. "