Would not it be politically profitable to Alexander Lukashenko specifically at the moment, these days are, just release Kozulin?
These and other topics in the program "Examination of Freedom" discussions are political analyst Yury Chausov and columnist "Belarusians and Market" Pavljuk Bykovskii.
Tsigankov"Alexander Kozulin was released to the funeral of his wife just a day or three after her death. All these days of politics and society sought to release Kozulin, so he could say goodbye to Ira Kazulina. Neuzh something the government does not understand those negative consequences, which causes the whole the story? "
"The authorities demonstrate that traded for every"
Bykovskii"The wave of political prisoners’ release occurs not immediate, and it seems that the authorities demonstrate that they traded for each. Indeed if go for liberation, it would be possible to do it in a jiffy and withdraw the question.
So we can state that there is some media effect, and it is caused by external circumstances. And the first thing that comes to mind — it’s March 2 elections in Russia.
EU requirements for the release of political prisoners concerned and Alexander Kozulin. But now came the devaluation of some of the requirements as to the last moment all experiencing an issue, release him to say goodbye to his wife. That until recently it was not clear — indicates how high and how hard to decide this question.
The fact that he was released — is a definite win and family Kazulins and democratic forces. It was a struggle freedoms, and this will overcome. But this is half-hearted decision, and because the cost will be re-release Kozulin proposed trade of prisoners. "
Tsigankov"Indeed, it does not remove the brain matter — whether general released Kozulin How these three a day or working on the prospect of a final release from prison?"
"The authorities will not try until the last trump card to give this"
Chausov"If you take the short-term this stressful situation with the release Kozulin goodbye to his wife, then there is, of course, the decision taken by the highest official. Bring to Lukashenko that presently politically profitable to release his personal political enemy (which, incidentally, is from the colony announced that the head of the country specifically to blame for the death of his wife) — it sought time. And in my opinion, there was not a conscious tightening, as it was uneconomic power.
We beheld, as for these few days home disaster political prisoner turned into a major political event. We had read earlier that Kozulin — this is the last trump card in the hands of the authorities, because it will be used again. Right now released on a day or three, to show that it is "in principle" can be, and more — the final release is not yet resolved. Authorities will try not to give away the last trump this card. "
Tsigankov"But it would not be profitable authorities specifically for the moment to release Kozulin all, showing his" wisdom and mercy, "as they could imagine? Next situation with pressure from the West can only get worse, and if Kozulin return to the colony, will not be suitable such ability? "
Chausov"Certainly, for the government now is not profitable if Kozulin after 3 days in again behind bars. Nuance There are such that the question of political prisoners is not just the main and first in the requirements of the European Union, but the only thing that can not swing. As always visible, man sits in jail or not. A problem of improvement of legislation or another — there is always possible to "negotiate", "engage in dialogue" — play execution.
Because the authorities would be profitable, so that the political upheaval associated with the burial, would have ended the release of the most famous prisoner. "
"Regime profitable Lukashenko — no"
Tsigankov"But along with that we know and the obstacles that stand in the way for the release Kozulin. This private and negative attitude towards Lukashenko Kozulin, the head of state and the reluctance to do something under the pressure of events and external forces. From this point of view — as Kozulin possible exemption for the 3 days? "
Bykovskii"I would not agree that the master mode exactly profitably produce Kozulin. Indeed, the arguments that have been named, they really are, and this action would remove a lot of questions. But at the same time — there would be new prepyadstviya. Indeed, there would be a new player, and although in the Belarusian political system would long Kozulin gaining weight (and wonder would gain) to become a real contender — but the surge associated with his return, would have negative consequences for the authorities.
Because fundamentally realize that was a prerequisite to release political prisoners. Or it was only pressure from the West, or also some game of. Develops memory that contributed Our homeland, so please Western release of political prisoners has been heard in Minsk. It seems that this kind of game with the West, the Russian Federation, which was for the benefit of those political prisoners who were released in the near future. But not all can have enough time in this game.
If we take for granted version of Moscow’s participation, the situation is very much will exchange after the presidential election on March 2. If by that time a decision is made to release Kozulin, the more "requests" from the Kremlin will not, and it is possible that Kozulin may remain behind bars and beyond. "
Chausov"To sum up our discussion on the topic, profitable or not the authorities to release Kozulin, the mode is profitable, that Kozulin was released, because it removes the question of external pressure. Personally for Alexander Lukashenko is very unprofitable, because there is evidence of destruction. We we see, how painful it relates to the imminent need to make demands of external actors. This will be his personal defeat. " Tags: Our homeland, Kozulin, Lukashenko, liberation, west