It is not the first year remains rather complicated situation around the Caspian Sea. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and on the world map of independent states from the former Union Republics problem of separation between the resources of the Caspian littoral states have not been solved. Now virtually any country tries to lobby for its own outlook for the division of the Caspian Sea and its subsoil, but this world is often broken on the inviolability of demonstrative beliefs of other countries. The problem may go into a completely different plane, if it starts operation of the Western coalition against Iran.
Try to understand that the same can happen with the so-referred to as the Caspian dispute, if Iran would still under threat of U.S. military power, Israel and other countries.
So, to begin to say about Iranian ideas about sharing the wealth of the Caspian Sea, also sharing its waters. So here, Tehran offers other four Caspian states (Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan) to resolve the issue, followed by this: just take and share as subsoil and waters of the Caspian between all countries equally. It would seem that a very constructive proposal, and it is surprising that it does not support the other Caspian states … But if you pay attention to the map of the Caspian region, it becomes clear that Tehran is obviously tricky. The fact that its coastline is almost 2 times less than the Russian and 2.3 times less than Kazakhstan. But not even the length of the coastline is a stumbling block in the issue of division of the Caspian resources. Strongly against the Iranian proposal serves Azerbaijan, which borders Iran. According to the views of Baku, if you divide the Caspian Sea «equally», as suggested by the authorities in Tehran, then Iran may appear to claim ownership of the offshore deposits of hydrocarbons, which are currently almost Azerbaijan reserves the. At this time, Baku can not agree with Ashgabat over who has the right to own Serdar-Kapaz. Now even scientists can not accurately answer precisely what government can generally qualify for these Caspian bowels. In this regard, the situation is often exacerbated to the maximum: Not so long ago the Azerbaijani border court sent a clear grasp Turkmen research vessel that his Kjapaz nothing to do … But if you managed ideas Tehran that the Caspian Sea should be divided into 5 equal parts (as waters and bottom), it is no fact that Serdar-Kapaz will qualify only Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. Here are the official power in Baku and oppose Iranian proposals for equal Shreds at section of the Caspian Sea.
It turns out that all the littoral states (from the former Federal Republic of) may even be on hand operation of coalition forces against Iranian nuclear facilities … As they say, one state than in the enduring dispute over the seas and the subsoil. But of course it is a judgment? ..
On the one hand, as it were, indeed, while Ahmadinejad will try to oppose something likely US-Israeli attack, it is possible to agree on the division of the Caspian Sea in a narrow range of countries. But only at the time a hypothetical campaign against Iran is unlikely other Caspian countries will be caring only problem Caspian resources. You can give such an example: five neighbors could not share a common courtyard between, people came here from another yard and house 1st neighbor set fire … Of course, at this point you can contrive disengagement, but in this case it is better to use your loaf about how to make so that the fire is not transformed into ashes all the surrounding courtyard buildings.
In other words, if the anger against Iran is launched, the region is waiting for a large-scale humanitarian tragedy with all the consequences that are unlikely to leave, the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan time for discussion of who and what fraction of the Caspian Sea will get.
Should expect that the direction of the border with Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan will flood flows of refugees from Iran, whose number is hard to predict, but that it may be hundreds of thousands of people — it’s entirely possible. With all of this population density in the north-western part of Iran than in the rest areas of the country, and particularly so in the direction of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and then — Georgia and Russia, Iranian refugees go, filling the already troubled Caucasus region.
It turns out that the invasion of the Western coalition in Iran could trigger the latest phase of the conflict in the Caucasus. Of course, the one who devises an air strike, coupled with ground operation in Iran obviously scrolls and complete destabilization option Caucasian territories and destabilization obviously lead to the need to pull together the strength and resources in the region by the Russian Federation. Even if these forces and means to gain one hundred percent to close the southern border of Russia in Dagestan, not the fact that it neutralizes the risk by 100%. Not much of the region is already mentioned Armenia, consisting of the CSTO. And so no matter what kind of destabilization in the country to push a priori role in the conflict and other states of the Collective Security Contract.
In addition, we can not lose sight of the fact that countries are preparing to hit Iran’s nuclear facilities, but only at nuclear facilities is unlikely to stop. Them, as they say, and immediately all necessary: destruction of nuclear facilities, Iranian oil, Iranian military targets, well, to the Caspian Sea and also completely enclose hand might want — for what are renounce matter what Iran itself claims …
It turns out that the current Iranian claim to the fifth part of the resources of the Caspian Sea — is, of course, the problem, but an even greater problem may be that the new forces have today instead of the official authorities of Iran in the region will dictate their demands. As they say, we do not need such alignment …