Participants: teacher registered in Lithuania Euro Humanities Institute Denis Melyantsou and director of the Institute registered in Lithuania BISS Vitali Silitski.
Who and why exacerbates conflict?
Valery Karbalevich: "Belarus is going to escalate the conflict with the U.S.. With stringent anti-American statements made by Lukashenka. Last week, at the meeting on the work of law enforcement agencies, he sharply criticized the U.S. sanctions. Yesterday in an interview with the Austrian Press Agency as head of the country’s poorly rated U.S. policy. Squeezed out of the MFA Belarus South American ambassador, claimed to reduce the staff of the U.S. Embassy in Minsk. seems that Belarus provoke further conflict. What motivates both sides of this confrontation? "
Denis Melyantsou: "Official Minsk managed in its own foreign policy interests first, rather than values. U.S. economic sanctions affected the interests of Belarus. Hence, this reaction of the Belarusian government.
In addition, the foreign policy of Belarus — the continuation of its domestic policy. Because this conflict is largely intended for a domestic audience. Lukashenko was necessary to show that Belarus — a strong government, it can protect their interests, even clashing with superpowers such as the U.S.. What can not allow myself to even our homeland.
Besides the United States — a good enemy. In 1-x, it is far. In-2-x, trade with the United States is low. Because in case of conflict and the loss will be small. "
Vital Silitskiand, "I can speak for the paradoxical idea, but I will not say that the Belarusian side is the huge aggravation. Minsk acts very cautiously. compare with how management acted Belarus 10 years ago during the" sewer war "when thrown with embassy Drozdov.
At the moment, the Belarusian side operates under international standards, plays by the rules. There is a provision of international conventions, according to which the host country may refuse someone in arrivals to the country or to impose conditions regarding the number of the diplomatic staff.
This is explained by the fact that the management team needs to think about alternate. If it will spoil the case with the West, the question arises: what next? Previously, the answer was simple: "For us Moscow." Now with an ally, there are certain questions.
In addition, we do not know exactly how much knocked South American sanctions. Trade with the U.S. — 250 million dollars a year. This slightly. But trade in oil and oil products in the world are in U.S. dollars. Translate it into euros easy. When this is not a case of direct monetary loss, and to increase the prices of doing business. And it can become painful blow.
And in the end, a matter of style. Lukashenko was necessary to show the power of the West, the Russian Federation, its elite, so no one thought, that power begins to weaken.
Our homeland currently teaches a course for a thaw in relations with the West. And she does not need a confrontation between Belarus and the West. "
Positions of the U.S. and the EU on the Belarusian issue
Karbalevich: "Certainly not the case decision by Belarus to withdraw its own ambassador from the United States and the signing of an agreement on the opening of consulates in Minsk, the European Commission took place in one day. During an interview yesterday Lukashenko criticized the European Union for what he Tipo dancing to the tune of the South American. This is the case with the zeal to share U.S. and EU, to oppose them, to split a single Western policy on the Belarusian issue — whether it has a meaning? Or can bear fruit? "
Melyantsou: "Such zeal Belarusian authorities clear. Minsk seeks to split not only the EU and the U.S., but even on the EU relations with Belarus. At a meeting with the German Ambassador Weiss Lukashenko did reveransy to Germany and immediately criticized other European countries.
But the U.S. and the EU — are strategic allies. For their errant Belarusian issue. Because with great probability we can say a little bit of that split the U.S. and the EU will not work. "
Silitski: "It is clear that for certain nuances of the Belarusian issue between the U.S. and the EU have a severe discrepancy. There are two theories to explain these discrepancies.
First theory says that the U.S. and the EU play in the evil and good cop. I think that this theory is wrong. U.S. Policy and the EU is not so coordinated to raspisats on notes and play your game each.
Second theory proves that Lukashenko deliberately went to the escalation of the conflict, in order to show that the United States — are bad, and the EU — good. But it is important that the Belarusian administration is not went too far. If, for example, Minsk "throw" a South American embassy, the EU will be required to identify themselves with the United States. After transatlantic solidarity — a value which connects voedinyzhdy U.S. and the EU. "
How soon will end this conflict?
Karbalevich: "How long can this conflict that begins to affect not only diplomats enterprise" Belneftekhim ", and ordinary people? I mean the suspension of the U.S. Embassy visas. What does it depend? Since the main prerequisite for the conflict was internal political situation in Belarus , then that can affect the softening of the U.S.? Actions March 25? Exemption Kozulin? Elections to the House of Representatives?
Melyantsou: "Cool period in relations between Belarus and the United States will continue until such time as it will be profitable to the Belarusian authorities. If Minsk sees that reached a maximum, then he is able to take steps back, start making some demands of the West, returned after.
Development of economic relations may also affect the improvement of political relations. Good-natured attitude of the authorities towards the opposition shares for the day and other days of the Will can also be a good sign for the U.S. to do better things. "
Silitski: "Maybe the EU activity in Belarus and the United States to spur an effort to return the ambassador. Second time. Since South American sanctions have been very painful, that Minsk will need to make an effort to eliminate them.
If you have any difficulty with the decision of the gas issue in negotiations with the new management of, it is also useful to find options in the West.
But the first step of the Belarusian side for the normalization of relations should be the release of political prisoners and the first Kozulin. "
Tags: united states, Silitski conflict