Drakakhrust: How can we explain the new sample Minsk make dialogue with the West, with Europe? Here it is worth recalling the sudden meeting with the German Ambassador, the release of Dmitry Dashkevich and Artur Finkevich, which the West considers political prisoners and the release of which is constantly maintained. As told our radio German political scientist Alexander Rahr, recently should visit foreign Affairs Minister of Belarus Sergei Martynov to Berlin, where he was expected to meet with the management of Germany. Why does this change the relationship and why it occurs specifically at the moment?
After the December meeting Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin seemed that between Minsk and Moscow entered a new "honeymoon", the cost of gas has risen slightly, was given a long-awaited big loan and promised more. It seemed that the project to improve relations with Europe has lost all possible enthusiasm for Minsk. In fact, the whole European project official Minsk appeared in the midst of a bitter conflict with Russia over gas and oil prices. At the moment, the conflict seems to have been exhausted, and with it, it would seem, and the European project too. But particularly at the moment Belarus is making steps towards the West, for which no one had gone for the past year of political courtship. Why? Andrei Fedorov, what do you think?
Andrei FedorovFedorov: In 1-x, I would have remembered that not all of the past year, the Belarusian management renounces such steps, we can recall the same exemption and Paul Sevyarinets Statkevich spring of last year. Judging by the fact that all of this started happening recently or Lukashenko meeting with Putin, Medvedev and Zubkov, or immediately after it, gives a hint that this is the meeting and what preceded it, and is the main reason for such action.
Walking rumors — I emphasize that this is still a rumor — that Moscow takes some pressure. In this case it was even before the trip Lukashenko in Sochi. What pressure can occur — if they give such concessions in the economy, it means something must be calculated, and it can be only in politics. What could be in politics? Well, most likely it is the deepening of integration. After all, everything else — forecasts about the U.S. response to their missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic — in my opinion, can not withstand criticism, because Moscow is well aware that it does not threaten them and it all just pre-election PR.
DrakakhrustVitaly Portnikov, how would you explain this mystery that the Belarusian stepped up the implementation of specific management of the project, which should have been Tipo become uninteresting for him?
Vitaly PortnikovPortnikov: I think it’s just pretty reasonable. Alexander Lukashenko at the moment can not be sure that the agreements that have been reached with Vladimir Putin, long, and that he was the climate in Russian-Belarusian relations, established in recent months will continue.
In fact since the moment in Russia itself, no one knows 100%, how there will be imperative against the presidential elections. Maybe it is like at the moment, Vladimir Putin will become Prime Minister and will actually run the state, and the president will figure to receive credentials.
And maybe that too, no one does not exclude the most power of the presidency will be such that the real head of the country’s future will be kutsee Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin, one way or another, as a person who has no real levers of power, will depart in the shade.
And what will be the policy of Dmitry Medvedev in the former Soviet Union — is also an issue that is currently set for itself not only Alexander Lukashenko. We heard Islam Karimov during nedavneshnego own stay in Russia openly expressed confusion why Vladimir Putin did not go for the next presidential election. Karimov said that he was sick about it.
If a month before the election about this so openly says head of another country, it says not that he is somehow related to the context of Russian politics, and that he feared for his own business with the Kremlin. And Alexander Lukashenko more seriously tied to the Kremlin than Islam Karimov, he is aware of what will be the consequences if these things will be spoiled if the sovereign Medvedev would not want someone statuesque myth of the union state because it was needed even Yeltsin and Putin when Russian control will be occupied by another mythology, in which Belarus is simply uninteresting.
If this happens, the risk Alexander Lukashenko, in 1-x, economic stability in their own country, in-2, on its own authority, in-3, own role as that of facilitator of economic short, all what is involved in the myth of Belarus, the Russian Federation as a friend.
Naturally, in such a situation Lukashenko tries very little "of the money put into another bank." And then the "bank" is in Europe. "
DrakakhrustVyacheslav Pozniak, and what is your solution to this puzzle? Why at the moment this European project acquired the latest life?
Pozniak: A wise man once said that the configuration — is constant comprehension. In today’s configurations relations between Minsk and the EU and Russia, we can see the constants as well as the configuration of the regional context. For the EU and for Germany and it is this — kamfartyzatsyya own environment, promoting their own Neighbourhood Policy. EU concerned about the stability of supply and diversification energoelementov rules of the game in this area as in the European and the global space.
Constant in Minsk for many years now — it’s way out of the political and economic isolation from the West, in which he himself and drove.
Continued isolation, except that unpleasant and hurt dignity and interferes directly and completely than more, so will prevent more. This is especially palpable in the economy. What after all has changed? While the real axis configurations relations Minsk-Berlin-Brussels is not observed. There are only a certain capacity. Minsk for they are seen in that perspective Berlin will take less critical and more than pragmatic stance towards Belarus. Energoelementov price tends to rise. This is a big burden for the Belarusian economy and the transition to energy-intensive need technology. And it reclaims scale technological upgrading.
European project official Minsk — is another constant. You may recall that a similar project was considered in 1994 in the first months of the first presidency of Lukashenko. We know that he was cut off in favor of integration with Russia. But later the European project reanimavavsya whenever complicated business with Russia. This was done largely for propaganda purposes to assure Moscow in value only ally in the western direction.
We can also recall another precedent liking. In 2002, during the warming period of Russia’s relations with the West, even when the opportunity to open a discussion Russia’s entry into the EU and NATO, at a meeting of the Belarusian Security Council was announced task of normalizing relations with the West.
Now, unlike previous episodes, there is something new. Fully maybe that is the result of the experience of the past year and projections of future trends in the world, in Europe, in Russ
ia and in Belarus itself.
Drakakhrust: I now wish to go back to the version you posted Andrei Fedorov. Indeed, more recently the December meeting of Lukashenka and Putin walked stubborn rumors that it will be declared a fundamental integration project. That did not work.
On the days are accomplished sudden meeting in Sochi Lukashenko and Putin, Medvedev and Zubkov. The next day when Lukashenko arrived from Sochi, the state news agency BelTA has distributed a survey conducted by a presidential research center. According to this survey, the Belarusians did not tend to unite with its eastern neighbor. Either this information did not "release" the answer to any integration Moscow’s proposals? In your opinion, at what point in the Russian political agenda is the question a day or political union with Belarus, if it is there at all? Vitaly that your answer?
Portnikov: I think that now generally read that in Russia think about merging with someone — it does not think about what political reality is at the moment in this country.
This decision is the most difficult challenges — prepyadstviya transfer of power, the problem of how to work the system power after the presidential election. This is the most difficult task in the modern history of.
Medvedev speaks as a representative of the "home" of the clan, the clan "siloviki" vigorously struggling with this choice, and we are witnessing a "silent war" between the Kremlin Kremlin-connected groups for future control over financial flows, and it is unclear what the outcome of this fight. This is the first. One of the main tasks of the Russian government — is the maintenance of regional stability, especially as times when the transition of power to new people. And of those people who will keep under control regions — completely incomprehensible. And this is the second problem.
We are aware that the global economic crisis that is currently happening in the western markets, usually within 3-6 months post-Soviet space comes up to the Russian Federation and in the summer we witnessed the severe problems in this country with the banking sector, with a mortgage, with credit, etc. This is the third problem.
Subsequent crisis — a crisis of ideological subservient. We we see, that at the moment the entire liquidated propaganda apparatus that was needed Russian authorities recent years, wound movement "Nashi", with Russian TV disappears Gleb Pavlovsky, rasfarmovvayutstsa ideological revision, which have been linked to the activities of certain political science centers. And this is the fourth.
5th — is the problem of foreign policy. It will also have to because in a situation of change of power is completely unclear how the case will be built with the West.
And now you, Yuri, do tell me — where is Belarus and in what place it is?
DrakakhrustVitaly, with your permission, I will readdress your question Vyacheslav Poznyak.
Pozniak: I’m more inclined to believe that the exact strategy on the part of Moscow there was no, or not. Moreover, in the current situation is mainly political and diplomatic game in the sense that it zadavanne situation beliefs. And meeting with Lukashenko Russian control should be regarded not so much as an attempt to exert pressure on the Kremlin Lukashenko much know his moods and subsequent intentions. Most likely, if the question of the integration of its expectations and plans and places, in the most general terms. And the answer was indirect disclosure of the survey results. While Minsk is not ready for constructive steps in this direction and wants to quit their freedom of action limited to what we have today.
DrakakhrustAndrew, as you heard, both our colleagues in one degree or another disagreed with your version. To reply to you.
Fedorov: I can agree with one and the other, but with some adjustments. In 1-x, I absolutely agree with the sovereign Portnikavym that Moscow is currently far not the first number in a day or agenda — union with Belarus and generally deal with Belarus that there were plenty of problems of its own.
But, in my opinion, should not be confused municipal interests, the interests of all of the elite (though they’re very different) and ignore the personal interests of the sovereign Putin. Imagine a man was 8 years was the head of the country, which currently tends to become a superpower. Then he becomes prime minister, it does not change the Constitution, there is no redistribution of opportunities. That he has no sense that he had something to lose? And here it from different sides, the variant in which he publicly retains a higher position, more formally higher than even the President of the Russian Federation, although in practice it probably will not.
Well fine, Belarus just wants to do better business with the West, because of that there are political prisoners are released, Martynov Tipo goes to Berlin. But sorry, West unnecessary results of a poll that was manufactured presidential service. West curious that Minsk doing in the field of democratization and the advancement of human rights. That practically the subsequent day after the Sochi meeting were written these poll results suggests that pressure on Belarus was made. I’m not saying that it was kind of pressure — now or never, it can happen in six months, Putin pobudet Prime Minister, and later held a referendum.
Note that Cherginets and not so long ago said that this year may be adopted constitutional act, that Cherginets, which last year strongly denied this opportunity.
Portnikov"I do not understand what is so difficult, if you can just. During 1-x, we do not know really whether Vladimir Putin is prime minister of Russian Federation. Must still wait for the election.
In-2, when Vladimir Putin is a really independent figure who desires power that wishes that she rules majestic power, and was not the person who is responsible for a specific area of work, which he put his clan, which Vladimir Putin should own authority. Why does everyone have forgotten that unlike Alexander Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin nor 1st a day or did not fight for power and became president just as its name referred to Boris Yeltsin. And because he is not currently will fight for power.
But if it really was, why it was impossible to change the Russian constitution and run for a third term, as did many of the Central Asian presidents and Alexander Lukashenko? Why do we need to invent a constitutional act, which replaced state construction of, allow Lukashenka to vice president of the union of the country, occupy an incomprehensible position with obscure features, if you can just be the president of Russia?
Well, even if Putin does not like to be Prime Minister and he will sit and dream of the presidency of the Russian Federation, and if Russian clans will wish that he was president, and not Medvedev — Well, six months later Medvedev appeared on television, say: "Pochetaemye citizens, I realized that the president should be our beloved Vladimir Vladimirovich," is to resign, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin became acting president, declared a fully legitimate elections and is elected president of Russia. That’s the story.
Putin — again without any Lukashenok president, constitutional acts and associations with Belarus.
I generally suggest Belarusian employee once and for all to forget about the union of Russia a
nd Belarus, not read about it even particular their children, I’m not talking about the listeners and viewers. Unions of Belarus and the Russian Federation will never happen. "
Drakakhrust: "And in the end, I propose to talk about where we started — about the European project. How far in hand ready to go? It’s not talking about that Belarus will accept the EU. It is in the best case for improvement relations. And what really is the improvement might be? "
Pozniak"In terms of solving energy problems, for a burning Minsk, the Belarusian side is enthusiasm to cooperate with the EU in the field of technical and legal. We know that the initial technical consultations have already taken place in late 2007, their expected continued. course, that this pause is made to ensure that it was possible to verify that the positive political dynamics between the parties exists.
Regarding energasfery that Minsk through improved relations with Berlin and the European Union as a whole trusts with their help affect Moscow to maintain and increase the energy transit to Europe via Belarus countryside. Judging by the criticism Minsk project pipeline "Nord Stream" — this is a very sensitive issue. Belarus needs investments, including from the European Union, a lot of investment for technological modernization services for economic stability needed leading technology. But without political adjustments to get them unrealistic.
In addition, the enthusiasm of Minsk — and the expansion of trade with the EU. We know that its fraction in the foreign trade turnover of Belarus is already impressive. Accordingly starts to develop some financial dependence of Belarus. According to the views of Minsk, the relationship is not to be combined with an unfavorable political situation, economic and political sanctions.
Although sanctions exclude Belarus from the Generalized System of Preferences and the EU were not tragic, but they have shown that the economic case is largely dependent on the political.
Minsk need positive stability, no fees, no sharp criticism own the address, a lot of investment, many leading technologies, and in the future — the opening of the internal market in Europe. EU with own hand, need positive stability of a broader plan that includes both democratic reforms and guarantees benign energy transit. Special emphasis is placed on a radical improvement in the human rights situation.
Both sides need a new framework for cooperation. Fee, if you put the question in this Makar, the EU has long been defined and known — it is important tools that can get within Belarus Neighbourhood Policy. As for Belarus, we can not risk the mistake, saying that Belarus expects to do the smallest concessions on its part.
Fascinating outlook express some Belarusian politicians: for him, in recent months, the official Minsk created a kind of line of defense on the far outskirts, specially created a tense situation with the persecution of opposition political activists, so that later you can release them, show a desire to liberalize the environment, but in fact confine it and did not go to design configuration on press freedom and the configurations of the electoral law. "
Fedorov"I do not quite agree with the employee Pozniak. Investments certainly necessary, but it’s not so much municipal much personal. In China, the human rights situation, in my opinion, even worse than in Belarus, but there are so investment flow that the Chinese did not know what to do with them. If Belarus were appropriate economic conditions, it did not stop to personal business is a political position that there is.
I believe that the planned visit Martynov in Berlin, to which you, Yuri, referred — is supposedly demonstrating the Belarusian population that improve business with Germany, and immediately attempt to push through Berlin on the other members of the EU, say Germans are at it — can and you go. Yet, based on the fact that the EU decisions are made by consensus or, or a large majority, I do not think that relations with individual countries, even as strong as Germany, Belarus will be able to change the attitude control of the whole of the European Union to Belarus.
What can go Belarus? I agree with the sovereign Pozniak, maybe, for the release of prisoners and there was such a strategy — to plant 10, and later release 9 and submit it as liberalization. As for the other criterion, then I have a huge doubt. "
Tags: Lukashenko, Fedorov, Pozniak, Europe, Portnikov