It was reported that on October 25, Alexander Lukashenko suddenly goes to Moscow. Changed if the relations of Russia to Belarus after the Caucasian war? Why the Kremlin refuses to translate Belarus entire loan of 2 billion dollars more this year? Lukashenko Kremlin or scared to leave the danger to the West?
Participants: Associate Capital Municipal Institute of international relations Kirill Koktysh from Moscow and chief editor of the magazine "Arche" Valery Bulgakov from Minsk.
Our homeland and Belarus after the Caucasian War
Valery Karbalevich: "Belarusian-Russian affairs were once again in a situation of uncertainty. Recent years of Putin’s presidency of the Russian Federation foreign policy was partly a reflection of the interests of the gas and oil companies. It was based on the principle that profitable" Gazprom ", the profitable Russia. With this trend has emerged and the Belarusian-Russian Agreement on the gradual transition to the pan-European market prices in energy trade, signed at the turn of 2006-2007.
This policy has been criticized in Russia. Putin’s opponents argued that such a huge foreign policy of the country as our homeland, not be limited to the interests of the gas and oil companies. You can not deal with the world around us to put on a commercial basis.
Caucasian war seems to be either confirmed what arguments opponents of Putin. Conflict with the West is pushing Moscow to revise some concepts of foreign policy. And, it seemed logical to the Kremlin, being without allies, to reconsider the approach, for example, to Belarus, to abandon the idea of market prices for oil and gas and resume subsidizing the Belarusian economy in full. But here’s something not seen such aspirations. Why? "
Gas prices and political affairs
Kirill KoktyshKirill Koktysh: "Naturally, the Russian-Georgian conflict has called into question the policies that Moscow has pursued in relation to the CIS states. This policy was based on a normal commercial basis: RF profitably if a cheap and reliable transit and unprofitable if transit is problematic and expensive.
At the moment, such a policy must be changed. Of course, it would not be a return to the policy of subsidies Yeltsin CIS countries. Political loyalty will not be sold. It seems that the issue of gas prices will be a day or agenda vykraslena with political relations between Belarus and Russia.
Russian subsidies to Belarus continue, but not through prices, and through the acquisition of Belarusian products using the Russian budget. And it will continue dating to the time until Moscow will build BPS-2 oil pipeline bypassing Belarus. "
Caucasian War changed the political classifications
Valery BulgakovValery Bulgakov: "The transition to market prices in the energy trade between Belarus and Russia almost did not take place. These prices are very dependent on the current situation and are the subject of political bargaining.
Russian-Georgian war has changed very political classifications. Perceptible was horrified by the fact Lukashenko Moscow military intervention in the internal affairs of the country adjacent. And this led to a reversal of Belarus declared the West to provide additional "safety cushion".
In Belarus, there is a new issue for bargaining on the cost energoelementov. This is the question of recognition of independence of Minsk South Ossetia and Abkhazia. But if Belarus recognizes these entities, so that the window ability to dialogue with the West, which opened not too long ago and brought trivial benefits in the short and medium term will be closed. "
Bargaining around the loan
Karbalevich: "In this sense, the situation is fascinating with credit in the amount of two billion dollars. Our homeland decided to allocate it in Belarus, but not immediately. 1000000000 Minsk will receive until the end of this year, and another 1 billion — the subsequent year. Belarus Manage this unhappy and asked for a loan $ 2 billion dollars to the IMF. Curiously, Iceland, a NATO member country, Moscow is ready to provide credit more readily than the coming Tipo ally — Belarus. Than it explain? "
Koktyish: "Islyandyya was offshore. Our homeland, has pledged her credit, helps his 20 billion dollars that are there.
Isolation of Russian loan with deferred Belarus — Moscow’s response to the position of Minsk on recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
In my opinion, for Belarus would be more true to say that we can not recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia from any circumstances. That Lukashenko has transformed this question in an article of commerce, — error. For Russia is unacceptable. If you later recognize the republics of Belarus, it will not get anything from Moscow, and only will lose their position in relations with the West.
Issuance of credit with deferred — a conscious calculation of. 1 billion this year — an amount that allows you to endure, but will reduce the amount of certain programs. Because Minsk and turned to the IMF, that means the West has confirmed its intention to build new business with Belarus. But now another reality does not the Russian-Georgian conflict, and the monetary crisis. "
Bulgakov: "Certainly, the present value of the issue of recognition Minsk independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia even more. If Belarus recognizes them, every game with the IMF would be impracticable. All consequences of this recognition are unknown."
Lukashenko Kremlin or scared to leave the danger to the West?
Karbalevich: "Most of the professionals noted that today’s embrace of Belarus to the EU one of the goals have to click on Moscow to make it more priklnnoy to Minsk to hold a single ally. Either scared Lukashenko Kremlin threat to leave the West?"
Koktyish: "Of course not. First you need to see that our homeland itself has long been in the West. It is there strong economic partners: Germany, France and others. During the crisis for the euro motor only chance to survive — is to get Russian fuel."
Bulgakov: "I do not agree with, the Koktysh. After the Caucasian War dividing lines between Russia and Europe increased by many geopolitical areas (Eastern Europe, Caucasus). Moscow is trying to make up for the slide into authoritarianism price of Euro-Asian bilateral relations with European favorites, reaching their payoff. Consider cases with Berluskoni and Schroeder. intensified geopolitical, ideological sections.
Paradoxically, but the Belarusian regime currently more liberal than the Russian. The first time the Lukashenko regime has become so interested in rapprochement with the West. But it would be possible Short-period and market. "
Koktyish: "I do not agree, what happens ideological confrontation between the West and Russia, because neither one nor the other side has no ideology. And I do not agree that our homeland is committed to bribe European favorites.
In the last days of Medvedev announced the creation of the ability of a gas OPEC. This means violation of the agreements that were, at least, of the United States. But during the crisis arrangements do not work. In other words Our homeland tends to tear gas prices from oil prices. Although it is a gamble. "
Tags: Our homeland, the crisis, the EU, expertise