Tsigankov: "For the first time in recent months has come to power so harsh repression to the participants of mass actions. Would you say that the situation has changed radically, and formed a new political trend?"
Chausov: "Of course, it can not be called the latest political situation, because everything takes place in line with an old schedule. Authorities currently lose very many in the foreign policy field. Simply was not an order to use force, and the Belarusian police, ruthlessness which perfectly known, acted in its own standard repertoire without taking into account that this action will just be focused the attention of foreign observers. Apparently, the police were arynentavanaya out to avenge the "shame" during protests businessmen.
But it’s not brand new situation — a new tactical alignment within the boundaries of an old alignment of strategic. "
Tsigankov: "Can you at the moment is read with a certain modicum of probability, as parliamentary elections in the fall? Opened any more power, which in the House under the influence of external events" empty "several opposition or action March 25 this topic closed? "
Chausov: "In my opinion, the ability to hold elections scenario relative or fragmented democracy remain. Situation days of freedom — is the situation of the game between the actors and the Belarusian foreign control. Government has once again reminded that" this may be so, and Makarov. "But the general line remains the same — in other words, reconciliation with the West. Shape parliamentary elections will determine the attitude of the Belarusian prepyadstviya a couple of years ahead. "
Tsigankov: "Vital Silitski in one of our programs www.svaboda.org/content/Transcript/1049304.htmlзаявил, that the Belarusian authorities at the moment — it is not a monolith, it does not have a common scenario, and separate groups hold their line. You agree with this approach? "
Chausov: "Obviously, the imagination that the regime has any single point of strategic decision-making — this is an exaggeration. Inside the regime have different trends, different business groups lyabistskiya. Some of them pratsiskayuts reconciliation with the West, others — by force scenario. In a situation where authorities failed to release in fine style Kozulin (their defeat), grouping, advocating for reconciliation with the West was in a situation of temporary retreat. And in the end we had such an aggressive crackdown on March 25. "
Tags: elections, Chausov, March 25