Participants: journalist "Belarusians and Market" Pavljuk Bykovskii and political analyst Andrei Fedorov.
Belarusian authorities have gone to greater repression against political opponents, media-independent. What caused this? Does not mean an end to such acts Belarusian dialogue management with the West? Does the warming of relations between Belarus and Russia?
Why intensified repression?
Valery Karbalevich"If aggressive act divisions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs on the day Will could be attributed to madness Governing law enforcement agencies, the action on March 27 when mass searches at the offices and apartments of journalists working for foreign radio and television, mean that a definite trend takes effect . This trend for increased repression against political opponents, media-independent.
Since the internal politics in Belarus closely interwoven with the outer, it does not mean if the last change of political course of action, the rejection of a particular liberalization within the country (I mean the release of political prisoners) and dialogue with the European Union (EU)? "
Pavljuk Bykovskii"It is not enough disk imaging, so read about changing course. Regarding days of Will, it should be noted that the committee proposed the celebration completely unacceptable for the government route. Recently the Interior Minister Naumov warned that there will be consequences if the opposition would break unsanctioned march route .
We are not the first time faced with tough actions of the police during the opposition actions. I recall that did not so long ago we were surprised sudden loyalty, tolerance shares to participants by the police. So at the moment came a return to the status quo.
In the near future the Belarusian authorities have tried to make the best of their reputation in the eyes of the West. So, signed an agreement to open consulates in Minsk Commission.
What came out on March 27 — I do not exclude — in some degree was a game between the intelligence agencies themselves. In the near future KGB inferior to other intelligence agencies in the impact. For example, the recent case sonorous under which signed later committee really was not done by his hands. Mean business and Zeltser, and dealing with "South American spies."
On orders under which the search was carried out, there was a signature Weger, Deputy Chairman of the KGB counterintelligence control. That journalists who work for zabugornye media took counterintelligence, indicates the level of perception of the media authorities.
Intelligence agencies seized equipment from journalists and their zastrashvali. It seems that they did not seek to completely finish the job of the media, but rather were intended to make some exemplary action which is important for any games within the country. "
Andrei Fedorov"I’m not in a hurry to make conclusions about the change of course. I do not agree with the version that the last action occurred as a result of decisions and actions of the security services. These people are programmed to orders.’m Sure they did a political order. During the past year Will the opposition day and going in the wrong place, where the City Council has caused, but such violence was not.
But I do not think that it is a signal break dialogue with the West. Hurry, this is a demonstration of what can be in the worst case. Say, you criticize us for the lack of democracy, but that’s a look that basically it means.
With regard to attacks on journalists, it is really a blow to the government beyond the media. But since it was limited confiscation of vehicles and questioning journalists, no one was arrested, then maybe it is a warning that the media and the West. "
End of dialogue?
Karbalevich"It seemed the case of Belarus and the West followed the path of warming. U.S. and EU have welcomed the release of political prisoners 6, Minister of Foreign Affairs Martynov was the first time in many years, admitted to the German Foreign Ministry, though unofficially. Remaining release Kozulin, and would likely diplomatic breakthrough to the West.’s influential U.S. official David Kramer argues that the Belarusian diplomats promised to release Kozulin in February. Apparently, the Belarusian authorities really going to do it. And all escaped, action began to develop in the downside. Why?
When I started to gain momentum Belarusian-American conflict, many of the professionals interpreted it as an attempt to counter the official Minsk position of the United States and the European Union on the Belarusian issue. And now relate repression of journalists working specifically on the European media. So it’s the end of the dialogue with the EU, with the West in general? "
Bykovskii"I do not think this is the end of dialogue. Faster is a step backwards, so again start to haggle. On the one hand, there is a swing that would agree to the West. On the other hand, the West is patchy, the EU countries have their own interests. And it expects to Minsk. "
Fedorov"Why broke dialogue? From USA to Belarus affairs have always been tense. And with the EU so far, it would seem, everything was going well, agreed to the opening of the consulate of the European Commission in Minsk, freed political prisoners.
Minsk expected from EU retaliatory steps. Minister of Foreign Affairs Martynov meeting with Western ambassadors read plain text, that the EU should cancel the list of officials who are prohibited from arrival in the EU. I am confident that the EU had to make small steps towards to encourage Minsk.
Maybe agreement prevented the U.S. pressure. Maybe blame the bureaucratic structure of the EU, which can rapidly respond to the situation. Then went to Minsk and escalation.
But I do not think that the dialogue is over. It is unlikely that the EU will go on imposing sanctions against "Belneftekhim". And, frankly, I’m afraid so. Because in the end may be constrained by Belarus in the Russian orbit. "
Does the warming of relations between Belarus and Russia?
Karbalevich"That’s now talk about the relationship with Russia. Maybe the answer to these questions is to be found in the warming of relations with Russia. I mean preferential gas prices on the second quarter and the other prerequisites."
Bykovskii"Medvedev at the first step will be the successor of Putin’s policies. What is more, it is not clear. Agreement on gas prices — is kept secret, because there are legends. One can imagine that the subsequent year prices will rise significantly because grow world prices of oil and gas.
While we conclude contracts in dollars, and the exchange rate of the dollar falls. At this point is discussed the relocation of settlements in trade energoelementami on Russian rubles. I believe that it is unprofitable to Belarus. "
Fedorov"Looking at the expression of officials from both sides, warming really takes place. Removed problems in bilateral trade. Lukashenko in an interview with the Austrian Press Agency said that if we will put pressure from the West, we will go in the direction of.
Pay attention that since the beginning of the Belarusian-American conflict nor the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation, the State Duma or not defended Belarus. Only Zubkov during his visit to Minsk declared support of the Belarusian side. And so, for sure, that this statement is almost squeezed Sidorsky.
In my opinion, this is a deliberate position. After all, the worse case of Belarus and the West, the denser it will lean against Russia. I do not rule that specifically warming rel
ations with Russia prompted Minsk to call the West.
On the other hand, there is pressure from Russia. Here Borodin, which seriously suspect in a bad attitude to the union state, said that the cost of gas for Belarus as a foreign country must be a market, and did not rule out that it will be $ 200 for a thousand cubic meters. I regard it as pressure. Say, do not want to merge, you will be here for those prices. In other words, pressure comes with 2-sides. "Tags: media, repression, security services, March 25