These and other issues in the transfer of expertise Freedom discussions are the chief editor of the magazine "Arche" Valery Bulgakov and publicist Alexander Fyaduta.
Tsigankov: "March 25 was forcibly dispersed by day Freedom — about 100 people arrested and convicted. Now the offices and apartments of journalists working for the European media, are searches and interrogations. Does this mean that the government makes a tactical or strategic shift from that relatively myagenkoy policy, which she spent (or was obliged to carry out) the last few months? And again crosses to a hard case to a civilian society? "
"It’s tough not answer civilian society and the European Union"
Fyaduta: "It’s not in the civilian society. In my opinion, this is the answer to the European Union, which is a very long time did not react to what he was doing Minsk to gain the support of Europe. When releasing political prisoners, it was clear that the Belarusian authorities expect certain steps towards Europe . But instead of the voice sounded Ambassador Hans-Georg Wieck, the former manager of AMG in Minsk, who said that everything is fine, but there are 12 proposals. And we will consider their implementation.
Tsigankov: "Alexander, I just remind you that the same is not all released prisoners — most recognizable of them, Alexander Kozulin, was …"
Fyaduta: "Of course, I know. Minsk But his hopes that will be made some steps forward, and will be a definite ground for dialogue. Now it is clear that no steps forward, on which his hopes Minsk, did not work. EU is very cumbersome and bureaucratic structure that mobility to respond to such actions of the Belarusian partners. ‘Cause we got what we got. This answer is not hard civilian society and the European Union "
Tsigankov"So Makar, in your opinion, the EU itself povinet that had not responded to promptly" positive signals "of the Belarusian government?"
Fyaduta: "The EU was necessary to prepare their moves before, but not collected after Minsk did something, and to think how to respond. If someone was playing chess, they know that time is very limited, and we need to work within those abilities that is. "
"The Belarusian regime more converted to plain authoritarian regime blackmailing"
Tsigankov: "The Belarusian authorities long enough restrained — shares not dispersed, released political prisoners. Would you say that at the moment it will return to an old policy of repression?"
Bulgakov: "I basically agree with the sovereign Feduta the fact that these events tracked obvious foreign policy context. One that motivation proposed sovereign Alexander, it seems to me very narrow. The problem is not in the relations between the EU and oboestoronnih Belarus and certainly not in nyagnutkastsi zabyurokratizrovannosti and structures of the European Union. Yet there are two political poles, two players who are de facto involved or even destinations are clear message sent today by the Belarusian authorities — the U.S. and a brand new Russian political administration.
With regard to Western players Lukashenko uses blackmailing practices, and this indicates that the Belarusian regime is converted to plain more authoritarian regime blackmailing. In short, clear message can be deciphered as follows: if you increase the sanctions do not take into account the requirements of Belarus, your "clients" on the terrain of the country, the informal sector will be subject to civilian society repression.
Immediately Lukashenko seeks to increase dialogue with the new Russian-controlled buck before Medvedev, and give to realize that "the western frontiers of the Russian people under strong protection."
Tsigankov: "If Minsk allows for such acts themselves — which means he is no longer afraid of the" war on two fronts, "Moscow does not expect any problems?
Bulgakov: "The financial dynamics between Belarus and Russia fantastically positive. Oil supplies to Belarus by Russian naftavytvortsav constantly growing. Moreover, the president obsessive thoughts build third oil refinery on areas of Belarus. In short, there are signs that show that the east direction for the Belarusian regime hard "zastolblen." But the severity of the situation is that the Russian oil would probably quite useless if the West will lead some joint policy, and cut off the opportunity to freely sell refined products in Western markets. "
Tsigankov: "Alexander, while in Russia the transition period, does that give a carte blanche to act Lukashenko within the country?"
Fyaduta: "No, do not give any carte blanche. Specifically, since it is unclear what policy the West will carry the Russian leader Dmitry Medvedev. Hitherto Lukashenko never ventured and did not try to substitute their own Russian partners of the West. He always did only what that he should be. That read Bulgakov, it would be absolutely true if the name of the new Russian president would be Sergei Ivanov. Indeed what to expect from Ivanova — everything was clear. What to expect from Medvedev does not know for sure, even Medvedev himself. Because what happens in Belarus should not be connected with the policy of the Kremlin. "
"No security forces. We only deal with entrepreneurs"
Tsigankov: "There is a perception that the Belarusian authorities at the moment — it is not a monolith, it is not a common scenario, and separate groups hold their line. Some of them pratsiskayuts reconciliation with the West, others — by force scenario. And during these days of grouping" siloviki " took revenge, and the moderates were granted temporary defeat. Either you see the situation in the categories "
Fyaduta: "No, I do not see. Currently, the Belarusian authorities have only one group that fights for the good attitude to the president for yourself and for the right to participate in future privatization of companies. Interested in it all, they compete only on this issue."
Tsigankov: "With whom compete when they are alone?"
Fyaduta: "One other. In my opinion, no need to read at the moment of any security forces. We are dealing only with businessmen. And businessmen understand — the more beating with batons on the streets, the cheaper the company. And since they are considering not only buy them, and resell them to the real owners — that they are not interested in what happened on March 25 and now. actual investor to such a country will not go and sell your future property Russians they also do not want because they know what it’s still in business. "
"The actions of the last days of unprofitable Belarus and its leader"
Tsigankov: "If it is not profitable, then who profitable action last 2-days?"
Fyaduta: "I do not know. What is unprofitable Belarus and its manager, I understand perfectly. But who can be profitable — I do not know"
Tsigankov: "And you, Valery?"
Bulgakov: "Versions of any business groups that lyabuyuts adoption of any national solutions do not take into account one fundamental event. It consists in the fact that in recent years the ability to change of power in Belarus will not. And the humiliating fact — beating or someone is not present on the streets of Belarus — may not be the deciding factor for the
privatization of attractive pieces of Belarusian industry when it actually happens. Because it is profitable to those who preserves the situation freezes political place and everything is done to the Belarusian regime remained intact and can be , as long as possible. "
Tsigankov: "How do you feel about the issue of the existence of different groups in the power and control between them?"
Bulgakov: "On the one hand, every authoritarian regime hiding behind the guise of their own a lot of different clans group exposure lyabistskih structures and the similar. On the other hand, totalitarian regimes try to look like a solid. Bound one ideology picture outlook.
With regard to our specific situation, no troops or manufacturers should not be taken into consideration, because this kind of a decision taken unilaterally — maybe with the consent or any discussion of a narrow circle, which has "access to the body." Tags: journalists, results, search, seizure, KGB