Belarus began negotiations with the IMF for a loan of 2 billion dollars. How much more debt can dial the official Minsk and who will pay for them? Can today’s economic measures to keep control of the Belarusian Belarusian ruble exchange rate and whether it is necessary to do? On these and other issues in the transfer of "Examination of Freedom" responsible economists Alexander Chubrik and Yaroslav Romanchuk. Transmits Vitaly Tsigankov.
Vitaly TsigankovTsigankov"The IMF mission began talks in Minsk by the Belarusian authorities on the allocation of credit for two billion dollars. All the latest steps of the Belarusian management — quarried in the end, a loan from the Russian Federation, an appeal to the IMF, bank measures already called amnesty of capital — they say first that the Belarusian economy sorely lacking funds. Can the fact that decide at the moment of power, call severe reforming the monetary sphere, or this tactical steps that do not affect the essence of the Belarusian socialist economy? "
Minsk ask for credit for "emergency"
Romanchuk"First is the obvious" surprise "in the Belarusian economy lacks funds. Indeed, if you look on a budget, then there are 4 percent surplus. If you look at businesses, banks, the authorities say that we have a lot of money and we have a quiet Harbor, where other tools can carry. ‘Cause that Minsk asked for money — it’s a surprise if controlled by official propaganda. Indeed, according to official statements, we have no such grounds as in Ukraine, Pakistan, Iceland to seek loans.
Yaroslav RomanchukEssentially asks Minsk credit "for emergency" to allow the obvious problem in the payment and monetary system. Indeed, if read about credit stand-by, then there exists a certain procedure — it is necessary that six months was cash monitoring. And here is another line on which, if Parliament decides to IMF, the loan may be issued up to 2 weeks. As it was with Iceland or Ukraine, which received 16 billion
So that means do not suffice, and this again emphasizes the idea that one thing — the official statistics, and quite another — the real state of the banks and companies that have already experienced for yourself and feel the breath of the crisis even more when the Russian economy will start to decline. "
Tsigankov"Earlier, the Belarusian took control almost foreign loans. This process began to accelerate rapidly the last 2-3 years. During the first half of this year was a record number of credits taken, but almost all of these funds were used to repay debts of old. How can last such a policy — take new loans to give to the old? "
"This is money that is worth taking"
Alexander ChubrikChubrik"Thank God, Belarus has not one hundred percent held such a strategy, because usually such acts lead to default. As it was in 1998 in Russia, which borrowed funds and delivered for old loans.
Belarus at the moment wants to borrow money from the IMF, but it would probably be the best loan that we can take. After all, like it or not, the government should subscribe to the fact that in exchange for the loan will carry out some reforms that will promote stabilizavannyu situation. So that is the money that is worth taking. I believe that we have addressed in the right institution — maybe we’ll get.
Tsigankov"The course of the national currency has become a fetish for certain power. He is not allowed to fall under any criteria. Belarus export-oriented economy and the decline of the ruble exporter would be profitable. Why the government stubbornly keeps the course, or faithful, this policy?"
Romanchuk"The ruble has become a definite indication of the stability of propaganda. Government says -" the buck then grows, then falls, euro falls, and that’s just our ruble is stable — because we’re on the right method. "But that said, Our homeland by 1998, Argentina, Mexico Turkey, Asian countries boasted of their measured rate. And bringing it up to the crisis, a large devaluation, to the fact that the country’s long-licking its wounds from that policy.
When the situation changes constructively, then artificially keep the course makes no sense. Because we do not need just for the sake of the IMF loan loan, and needed reform. And well, if the IMF will assure our government eventually start that the government has started in 1995, when the executive committee CHigir and brought in the IMF program from the restructuring of our economy, which was later rejected Lukashenko. 13 years have passed, and we, in fact, returned to the same point.
Bad when the rate — the decision of the authorities. Necessary that the free market was kursavtvarenne. "
"National Bank will hold a course to the last"
Tsigankov"In some exchange offices from time to time there is no bucks — it seems that people are starting to worry. How should react to this power — steer or omit it evenly?"
Chubrik"Power is heading because a hostage own policies. Exchangers in currency really began to disappear, because at times the rate at which the National Bank acquire bucks higher than the official. Has long such was not. This suggests that banks do not have enough currency.
In this situation, if the National Bank will begin to devalue the ruble, the population will develop memory — "all fucked up, devaluation began." Funds will be withdrawn from bank accounts and converted into foreign currency. This situation is bad. But this bad and so artificially keep the ruble, as it keeps the National Bank.
At the moment, really very hard to keep not only the course, but even the credibility of the national currency. People who watch what happens in adjacent countries to refrain from such difficult decisions simply to collect the funds and purchase bucks. In this situation, the National Bank will hold a course to the last, and it is advisable from the point of view that can prevent panic. "
Tags: money, money, crisis