Drakakhrust"When did the diplomatic conflict with Washington Minsk, many thought that Alexander Lukashenko is trying to play on the contradictions between the U.S. and the EU, clashing with one and establishing business with others.
Lukashenko personally negotiated with the German ambassador in Minsk, the Belarusian head of Foreign Minister Sergei Martynov met in Berlin with the management of the German foreign ministry, six political prisoners were released. And then last week — an aggressive crackdown on the demonstrations 90th anniversary of the BNR and mass searches in the offices zabugornyh television and radio and in the apartments of their correspondents.
Here, too, even the greatest European proponents of dialogue with the official Minsk shrug — what can be done here, I do not wish people, more precisely, at least one person datrymlivatstsa what decency. German Foreign Ministry issued a rare statement for him. And here this week — another round of diplomatic war with America, a new requirement on the reduction of the embassy staff, it is now up to 7 people.
What political logic such change of position of Minsk, what and how he is going to accomplish? Viktor Martinovich, what do you think? "
Martinovic"Really, what happened does not fit into the logic of past political events in Belarus, very few events last 6 months. The most beautiful explanation of this turn, I heard — this version of the clan. In her recent actions justified old confrontation between power groups, between MVD and KGB. They competed in a demonstration to the president, who from their more "cool" in the protection of the municipal order in Belarus. This version states that the March 25 police began tough act in a moment.
But this version does not explain why this is the competition between the "security forces" did not come out from under the blanket, why we have long not beheld such blood in the streets and searched the apartment of foreign media journalists.
I have a feeling that in recent months generavalasya policy of Belarus is not the president himself and his environment, more precisely, a part of this environment, which with a little bit of conditionality can be called liberal. Of course, the idea of dialogue with Europe was not nominated by the president himself, he apparently felt uncomfortable when read about European integration. He feels more comfortable in the context of integration with Russia. And at the moment Lukashenko returned. And what we have at the moment we see, is the implementation of a standard policy à la Lukashenko, austerity policies, direct and effective for all that. Why did the president refused strip proposed "liberals" in his entourage?
In my opinion, it is justified by one person — Alexander Kozulin. Here is the strategy of "liberals" Bound in paradox Kozulin, if he was released, and he went to Germany, then we would have at the moment lasted dialogue with Europe and of any aggressive crackdown on demonstrations and harassment of journalists would not be out of the question. "
Drakakhrust"Martin Schoen, and that this logic seems to you, why, why there was such a sharp change of policy?"
Sheng"You can agree with Victor that there is a moment of clan fighting that there rivalry between" doves "and" hawks "in his entourage. But I also liked the version according to which the regime has its own logic and Lukashenko does what he has always been able to do is best — it is to play, play in the political field. With all this the U.S. is not a decisive player. There is a traditional triangle: Belarus-European Union-Russia.
Many implied that uses Minsk European version specifically in order to play with Russia. Alexander Lukashenko knows that real convergence with the EU, it can not be because the EU member states have agreed among themselves on these 12 claims. It is clear that they can not be performed.
Lukashenko can communicate with those in any other ambassador, can show its goodwill, freeing political prisoners, but at some point it should tighten the screws at least in order to show the opposition that it can not be freely behave.
So in the midst of circumstances that led Lukashenko to do so, there are domestic — show forces inside Belarus, which is not the scenario, which many hoped that liberalization will, that in the end will be held free elections, and these forces will come to power. A second factor — foreign policy, the recent actions of the European Union, he says: "I will not play by your rules, I went to meet for you, you step in response did not, so this is my country, I was the owner and I’ll decide what do here. "
EU reaction to this turn indicates that in the European Union to this were not ready. There waiting to see what will be the revelation of Belarus will rapprochement expected that Minsk will behave because we usually behave when negotiating — that nobody makes steps back. But Lukashenko does not play by these rules, and at the moment in the EU there is a certain confusion, there do not know what to do. "
Drakakhrust"Fyodor Lukyanov, and what do you see the logic in this unexpected turn of Belarusian politics?"
Lukyanov"I do not really understand the logic, but do not rule out that this chain of actions associated with the first miscalculation President Lukashenko. After all, if he really believed that Belarus is able to play the "bad and good America Europe", it seems to me that he’s just not adequately assess the situation. Partly similar policy could spend our homeland. To it can be viewed as anything but its impossible to ignore. With all this we must say that our homeland, and if trying to play on the contradictions between the U.S. and the EU, it does it very carefully.
Alexander G. very overestimates the importance of Belarus — nobody will arrange complex intrigue, especially when it comes to such dense allies like the U.S. and Europe, for Belarus, with all due respect to that State.
Perhaps realizing that this plan does not go out, Lukashenko was offended, and this is the result — a sensual response to the combination that did not work. "
Drakakhrust"Sanctions" Belneftekhim "concern imposed by the U.S. in the past year, begin to appear in the most unexpected areas. Belarusian That leaves the company credit card, the computer firm faced with the refusal of the American partners to collaborate with them. This week salting Belarus in Lithuania told the difficulties that exist in this country branch "Belneftekhim" harsh banks shall be removed to service its operations. Chairman of the State Bank Pyotr Prokopovich, commenting on the statement by the Ambassador, said that the most dangerous — is when the South American sanctions to join the European Union. And it can be ? Martin, what do you think? "
arrange complex intrigue, especially when it comes to such dense allies like the U.S. and Europe, for the sake of Belarus
Sheng"I think it is very unlikely that the EU will go to any economic sanctions. During 1-x, it seems to me that the EU’s position from time to time in general is hard to find, it’s not solid structure, is there any country has its own interests. This could create clear when discussing or deprive Belarus of trade preferences. decision was finally made, but the question remains, how much harm has made this decision of the Belarusian economy.
In-2-x, or intrigued by countries of the Union to take such steps as before if a significant part of energoelementov goes to Europe via Belarus. Moreover, it is considered part of the footprint of. Given all this, the EU believe that because human rights should not go to the conflict, so feel its effects later.
At this point a number of MEPs and representatives of other European institutions appear strong statements about Belarus. But such statements sound all the past 10 years. They sounded very much after the last presidential election. Then there was a moment when I personally thought that something concrete will be produced. But then if there was nothing, how at the moment something will happen? It’s unreal.
Even a representative of the European Parliament, as Elizabeth Shrotder that usually sharply expressed about Belarus, recently said that the EU does not want to harm the population. "
Drakakhrust"Victor, do you agree with Martin? Here he first read about our conversation," triangle ", one of the" corners "of which is the Alliance. But it turns out that he has a little gingerbread and some are vague, and then peel and generally none. "
Martinovic"The EU will not join the U.S. sanctions. Likely will talk about the sanctions that were adopted earlier — I assume visa sanctions for several 10’s of Belarusian officials. These sanctions Term ends April 10 and they just utter that these bans check last another year. Nor will return trade preferences. "
Drakakhrust"So in the end — about Russian" corner "of the triangle, which read Martin. Sensation this week was the announcement by Russian Ambassador Surikov that an increase from April 1, gas prices for Belarus from 119 to 128 dollars for a thousand cubic meters — the last in this year. 128 — this is a very small figure not only in comparison with the price of, say, the Ukraine, and it seems from the basic contract in December 2006, where the change of the price formula painted until 2011, and according to which Belarus this year must pay the bucks That two-hundredth as necessary to realize this gesture? To what extent general situation in Belarusian-Russian relations can be explained and Belarusian-American war and diplomacy regular political "freezing" in Belarus? Victor "
Martinovic"I have sent a note that the visit of Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov held recently in exactly violent actions that graduated from the Belarusian" thaw. "Even then Statkevich said that we will know how to behave on the visit of the police Zubkov. If price of gas will increase significantly, then everything will be fine. If the cost does not increase much if not increase, it will rage. And so it happened: the cost is not much improved, police raged, "thaw" beginning to end.
We can make a guess that at the moment, during the separation of powers between the environment and the environment Medvedev Putin, Russia is better with no one to fight.
May have played a role, and the fact that Belarus is now in public quarrel with America and the Russian Federation is nice.
But the only thing that can be read accurately, so that the relationship between the price of gas and the degree of democracy in Belarus. If Russian gas is a cheap, democracy will not be here, because in Belarus will be no need to talk to Europe. And "liberals" in the president’s entourage will have weighty arguments to assure Lukashenko that such a dialogue is needed.
My Russian colleagues they say that in some places by September will be a completely understandable configuration newcomer Russian authorities. It was then that power will return to the Belarusian issue and begin to increase the cost of gas. And today’s word here Surikov guarantee nothing, because he is not a person who takes such decisions. "
Drakakhrust"Martin, do you agree with this" formula Martinovic "- the higher the price of gas for Belarus, much less freedom in Belarus?"
Sheng"I fundamentally agree with Victor. But I would not agree that the cost of gas and the general behavior of the Russian Federation can develop in such is to be the democratization of Belarus in terms of liberalization of the political system. It seems to me that our homeland is not interested in democratised Belarus, Belarus, which is close to Europe. RF is interesting because it at all it loses not only a political satellite, and an useful political partner. This market is an opportunity to invest their own capital. And because even if our homeland go to the gradual increase in prices for Belarus to the market, but it will be accompanied by measures that will support Lukashenko be intrigued to know more of, rather than Europe: a cheap loans will be other subsidies. Our homeland will not behave so as to lose Belarus .
Today a small increase in gas I explain as well as Victor — now Russian elite needed no mess, no public debate with the "brothers."
Still not clear how certain elite groups will react to the new president, what real role Putin in recent power system. While this does not clear, Our homeland will behave calmly.
If we talk in general, it seems to me that Belarus profitable to play and with the European Union, and Russia, and not join any one. I think that this is a niche Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko and plays just fine in this field. And I would give him a long time. I do not see the harsh reason why this game should end in ".
Lukyanov"Indeed, the announced increases looks more human. Given that prices grow and Our homeland strongly reminds its customers that the market dictates its own laws with regard to Belarus, here, despite nedavneshnie conflicts approach is very human. I think the reason is that our homeland with a brand new president will act in the same way as in the ancient, but will seek to be more unique.
That Belarus provides a privileged price status, certainly, can not be based on any expectations of Russia against Belarus.
I think that will set a course to ensure that Belarus is becoming increasingly dependent on Moscow. Depending on economic as well as for political dependence, it is currently quite unpopular in the Kremlin, for all realized that the game with the adjacent countries in friendship, in sayuznitstva, nothing.
But financial dependence — on the contrary, that the experience of recent years, when our country sharply raised prices and took an uncompromising stance. RF popularity this obviously did not add, but very true boundaries as shown independence of many post-Soviet states places, and borders the West the ability and willingness to do anything in the FSU. One thing — it abstractly achieve democratization, and another thing — engage in a tough fight with Russia and assume the costs of post-Soviet states, which suffer from Russian actions. That’s about the last of the West turned a little strongly desire.
Belarus in this sense is also an example of a very catchy, as we remember how last year Lukashenko sends signals to the West, that Russian was bad and let’s be friends on this basis. Any result that did not matter. In 1-x, is obvious, since the base value does not stick, but at 2-x, since then Europe for at least some of
Belarus and other former Soviet countries to go on further aggravation with Russia.
I believe that, the next president will try to capitalize Our homeland is the realization of many states that still more serious than it seemed. Capitalize not necessarily in the sense of a tougher stance. In this direction, there is a certain boundary, after which begins a tough position to work on the contrary, as is the case with Georgia. Russian position, if it is more flexible and nuanced and largely rely on Myagenkaya force may become more effective.
But how will such makarom from Belarus to achieve something — quite naturally. Alexander Lukashenko for a long term cooperation with Moscow proved himself so delicious taste of reneging on all the charges, it is hard to expect that his talents at the moment somewhere disappear.
Although it seems to me that his room for maneuver is shrinking impartially. Our homeland is more economically understands their interests, and that for the West, there is less chance that will build something new, at least until such time as Lukashenko remains. "