Accomplished the third inauguration of President Dmitry Medvedev. How can we evaluate the Putin period of Belarusian-Russian relations? These able to control Russia: Putin, Medvedev, will duvmvirat? As relations between the prospects look with 2 states?
Putin period of Belarusian-Russian relations
Valery Karbalevich"Vladimir Putin has begun to implement the commitments of the RF President in late 1999, almost after a number of days after the signing of the contract in the Kremlin on the development of countries of the Union of Belarus and Russia. Seemingly, there was a strong ground for project integration 2-states.
But what is more, the more business with 2 between states and their leaders became strained. Gas, oil wars, as a consequence of the crisis of relations postponed integration project on the sacred never turned it into a myth.
Like you rate the Putin period of Belarusian-Russian relations? Why integration project at an impasse? As a consequence, are impartial or personally like? "
Kirill Koktysh"There were a few allied projects. One project was under Yeltsin, second — under Putin to 2006, and the third we look at the moment.
Under Yeltsin, the substance of the relationship was determined by ordinary and "Kissing in exchange for a cheap energoelementy." Yeltsin, the project was almost the only one that Russian society is recognized as a success.
For Putin, a Belarusian-Russian affairs were not a prerequisite for legitimacy. Because he tried to rationalize this project, share economic and political issues. Lukashenko resisted this and tried to return the model that was under Yeltsin.
Because the conflicts began, starting with the famous phrase Putin flies and cutlets and ending oil and gas war. Appeared stupor. Financial and political integration is not accomplished. But partly implemented military integration and integration in the social sphere.
Since 2007, oil and gas issue was put beyond integration. Now hard to say what is an integration project without a cheap energoelementov. Because the fate of the allied countries is uncertain. "
Valery Bulgakov"I would not agree with the fact that the Belarusian-Russian integration has become a myth, at an impasse. Indeed, the very figure of speech allied countries remains necessary Belarusian and Russian elites, including the opposition. Financial integration, albeit in a rather fanciful forms of atypical West became a fact.
The consolidation of power, carried Putin Lukashenko made impracticable activities on Russian political platform. He could not arrange tours of the Russian regions and to establish links with the local elites. Lukashenko took it as insult that led to tensions between Moscow and Minsk.
In my opinion, talk about the rationalization of Russia’s policy towards Belarus under Putin is not necessary. After Belarus receives more energy grants, about 5 billion dollars, equivalent to 10-11% of the gross domestic product.
The main obstacle to rapprochement 2-States — authoritarian regimes in both countries. It would, for example, very naive hope that Lukashenko will share the levers of power in Russia. "
Karbalevich"Bulgakov, you did not agree with the conclusion of Koktysh that integration project stalled. So, in your opinion, it looks that the Belarusian-Russian integration between Putin successfully developed?"
Bulgakov"She acquired other forms, was abrupt.’s Such a fact. Over 60% of Russian crude oil this year processed at Belarusian refineries (refinery). Managing Belarus even talks about the construction of the third refinery. And what sober person would argue that not integration occurs? "
Koktyish: "An integration between financial companies that can be counted on the fingers of one hand. It has a long-distance relationship to the integration, which provides the Allied agreements.
As demonstrated by oil and gas war, this form of integration can be perceived as malicious RF control to its interests. And can be rapidly stopped, as has already happened once. Because this process does not have the resource growth, if it will not be interested in certain circles of Russian business. State Administration of the Russian Federation can afford without any consequences, without disturbing its population is simultaneously stopped. And no one in Russia will not see. This means that virtually no integration. "
Who will rule Russia?
Karbalevich"An inauguration of the third President Dmitry Medvedev. Politically, expert environment last debate on who actually will rule Russia: Putin or Medvedev? Will duvmvirat tandem duo?"
Koktyish"Championship president stated in the Constitution. But the possibility of the Prime Minister is not much less. Yeltsin came out of this difficult situation that changed tirelessly premiers.
Putin in the first term of its own rule virtually ruled specifically, only personified power. And if in the second period, he began to manage itself, the government was simultaneously technical.
Judging by the statements that were made by Putin and Medvedev, the new president will be responsible for foreign policy. And Putin will be responsible for the economy and social policy. So begins a Medvedev presidency. And that will continue, no one will say. "
What are the prospects of relations between states with 2?
Karbalevich"What will be the Belarusian-Russian affairs under Medvedev? Seems YTD their shows vector in the direction of warming. Cost of gas for Belarus is the discount, and that Russian subsidies to Belarus not only not declined, as it was announced a year ago, and even increased . Belarus received preferential Russian loan of 1.5 billion dollars, and negotiations on a brand new 2 billion loan to Ukraine’s plans to join NATO provoked hysterical reaction in Russia, has only to recall Putin’s speech at the NATO summit in Bucharest. And it seems to be too important factor strengthening Belarusian-Russian relations. As you sees prospects for relations between states with 2? "
Bulgakov"Today’s concessional supply energoelementov refute the thesis of Koktysh that the Russian people would not take the aggravation of Moscow’s position on this issue. RF Management decided not to rock the situation to ensure painless transfer of power. Indeed, if the cost of gas for Belarus increased by 2 -3 times, it is unlikely to strengthen rating Medvedev.
Needless to elect the new Russian President Lukashenko very nasty. After all, Belarus is the only country in the region where there is no rotation of power since 1994.
Nothing shows that the rate of the Kremlin against Belarus will change. Belarus under Lukashenko successfully implements internal Russification, destruction of national culture, destruction of political freedoms in exchange for gas and the other handouts from the Russian Federation. "
Koktyish"The last point Mr. Bulgakov — is an extrapolation of the Belarusian thoughts on the Russian reality, which is totally different. Now Our homeland, on the one hand, increases in gas prices, on the other hand — it compensates oil supplies, state order for Russian industrial products.
Our homeland has started to build a transit candidacy of Belarus and Ukraine. Mean the North European Gas Pipeline, which will be built in 3.5 years, the Baltic Pipeline System-2, the construction of which could begin in a month, missile launch detection station near St. Petersburg.
Segodnyaschy Moscow’s policy towards Belarus will last exactly as long until the candidate. Belarus should the market price of gas when in Russia will candidacy. Then double-sided dependence of Belarus and Russia will turn into a one-sided dependence of Be
larus on Russia. But what will happen is unclear. "Tags: Our homeland, Putin, Medvedev