Correspondent"Why economists can not come to a general conclusion — what prerequisites of the crisis in the American and world economy?"
Wolfe"The laconic response consists of 2-words — is the complexity and novelty of it.
This crisis contains the global imbalances that affect the monetary policy, the situation in the real estate market in the U.S., significant changes in relative prices. All these factors are interrelated and they are very difficult to disentangle. Second point — is that the modern financial system similar to the one that was used previously. The crisis in the real estate market in the U.S. — also unprecedented phenomenon. And since these new phenomena, we do not know where they will lead. "
Correspondent"What could be the consequences of the South American crisis for other parts of the world, namely, for Europe?"
Wolfe"There is a real danger to the economic development of the systems, which are particularly dependent on capital inflows from advanced countries. It happened 10 years ago during the Asian crisis. And at this point it may affect the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Turkey. Downturn in the U.S. economy, if it is significant, certainly will affect the European and Asian economies. And it will also affect all small, open economies that rely on global trade. "
Correspondent"These vendors energoelementov as our homeland, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan can get even benefit from such nuance crisis, as soaring prices for their commodities. Either it is temporary, opportunistic phenomenon bubble that will burst soon?"
Wolfe"There is an element of the bubble, in particular with regard to price growth in recent months. But to a large extent this is simply a reflection of the fall of the dollar, euro growth of these prices is not so quick. But it also has a structural rather than merely conjunctural background . One of them — a significant increase in demand from China. This demand is driving prices skyward. So I believe that the prices of raw materials and products of the highest consumption remain higher than they were in the 1990s. But not necessarily that they cease to the current level. "
Correspondent"Maybe if that Russian capital will replace the Western investment in post-communist countries?"
Wolfe"It can not be ruled out. Just need a lot of money. I do not quite understand how the Russians are going to use it. But of course, that Russian personal business and parastatal business will seek to invest in those countries that they know. And this is just the former Russian sphere exposure. This already underway, and I would be surprised if our homeland, having a large in store means have not tried to put them. "
Correspondent"In Belarus, in recent months, a trend that has been missing all these years to be independent of the existence of the country, citizens were selling dollars to commercial banks more than take. Obviously, the Belarusian economy is very small in the global scale, but the overall trend. Whenever Federal reserve system U.S. lowers interest rates, incomes fall outside investors. not happen this cause that the main holders zabugornye bucks will get rid of them? "
Wolfe"Nobody knows exactly how many bucks keep foreign power. According to my estimates, is about $ 4 trillion. Obviously, if they start to get rid of mass bucks buck will be very relaxed. But I do not think it will happen. It is difficult, in especially for China and the land of the rising sun, which together hold 40% of supplies of foreign currency. disposing of dollars on such a scale, they will lose a lot, then it will create an international crisis as Americans will see this as an attack on America. Such a process can happen, but it will go slowly. Friendly foreign governments for the buck seems to me unlikely case scenario. "
Correspondent"Well, if this unlikely scenario still happens, what will be the consequences for the U.S. economy?"
Wolfe"Damn. Greatest horror for the U.S. — it Baksova collapse. This is a direct path to the situation of the 1970s, and perhaps something worse. Stagflyatsyya This is — a combination of rampant inflation and deepest recession. And there’s nothing South American Government fails to do so because the case would be at a loss of confidence in the greenback by foreigners. For the U.S. at the moment there is nothing more important than to maintain confidence in the greenback. They can not risk their monetary policy, undermining confidence in the greenback as a means of saving for millions of people world.
While South American policies have not led to the horrors of which I read. But, in my estimation, if the interest rate drops to 1% — but at the moment it is 2.25% — there is a real risk such a crisis. "