Montenegro on the next pass

Will the youngest member of NATO Slavic state?

Michael Karmazin 14.03.2013

Less than a month — April 7 — Montenegro, formally the youngest, by the way, the thirteenth Slavic state, proclaimed June 3, 2006, must pass the presidential election. Although the country's political system main power concentrated in the hands of the prime minister, the president, especially if it will be an independent figure in the development of its general course a lot depends …

The upcoming vote attracts much more attention than the previous ones, for two main reasons. The first is that in the next year or two, Montenegro will have to make a final choice: whether it will dissolve in the "Euro-Atlantic family", passing much of their newly-found sovereignty to the EU and NATO, or retain its own unique identity and privileged relationship with her close civilizational nations — Russia and Serbia. The second reason for the increased interest in the forthcoming elections in the fact that in the country after more than twenty years of irreplaceable omnipotence of former communists — renegades, renamed the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS), led by current Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic there is finally a real political alternative in the face of leader of the opposition Democratic Front Miodrag Lekic.

People are more annoying blatant manipulation by the regime, seeking at all costs to maintain its position, while the rest of Europe for such transgressions have not responded to one generation of leaders.


Even in the current campaign, the nomination of the candidate from the ruling party was accompanied by frank scandal. DPS represents the current president Filip Vujanovic was elected to his post in 2003 in the framework of the state with Serbia, actually goes to the polls for the third time, despite the constitutional limit of two terms. "Democratic Socialists" in the country, but mnogoznachaschem silence of Europe proclaimed the first time Vujanovic, expired in 2008, when the previous presidential elections were null and void, since he was elected before independence. But then it turns out that from 2006 to 2008 Vujanovic held his post illegally and should be held liable for usurpation of power. Such a mockery of common sense could not even make a DPS partner in the ruling coalition leader of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) Speaker (Parliament) Ranko Krivokapic. He said he would vote against Vujanovic and call to do the same members of the Social Democratic Party. Montenegrin society is tired of the endless well of scams and corruption scandals involving the ruling family of Djukanovic, from the stories of its members hidden in Swiss banks billions of dollars. Montenegrins did not flattering going to Europe notoriety of their state as a certain "mafia kingdom" in the Balkans, from time immemorial, "hunted robbery", especially because they have something to really be proud of in their national history.

Montenegro's contribution to the development of European civilization greatly exceeds the size of its population (626 million) and the size of the territory (13,812 square kilometers). This is the case when they say: "Small but precious." Montenegrin statehood consistently evolved since the early Middle Ages to the incessant wars for the freedom of the conquerors, and the Montenegrins, along with exceptional fighting qualities were inherent features of philosophers and poets. It was here in the XV century there was, for example, the first printing press in the Cyrillic alphabet. Since the time of Peter the Great's special bond that connects people with Russia.

A strategic position in the region, where the interests of many of the great powers, Montenegro retains to this day.

Special attention geopolitics, for example, pay for the pearl and the "curse" of Montenegro — the only one in the whole Mediterranean sea dry land jutting out into the nearly 30 km deep-water fjord Boka Kotorska. In my time here, in particular, was the main naval base of the mighty Austro-Hungarian Empire, and today are looking at him frankly NATO strategists.

Montenegro is well defined with respect to convergence with the EU, but the question is, on what terms. Some of her neighbors, such as Bulgaria, have signed these discriminatory agreements with the EU that the expected prosperity of the national economy does not even smell rather, we can talk about her growing degradation. Given the well-known financial problems in the Southern European zone (the area of so-called PIGS) to all new applicants with similar characteristics Commission imposes more stringent requirements. Oversaturation of the European market production of traditional Montenegrin exports of food and light industry, extremely strict standards of production, do not tolerate national varieties, and adjust them to the tastes of European bureaucrats, can destroy even those growth points that are available in the economy.

In Brussels in anyone not consider the full accession of Montenegro to the EU before 2020. In Europe, love to speculate about the triumph of law, fighting corruption and fair competition in the elections, but suspiciously keep silent about the "arts" the current government in Montenegro. Why? The answer is simple: it's more convenient to keep it under control and dictate the terms of such integration into European institutions that will be most beneficial and European officials are unlikely to answer the expectations of themselves Montenegrins. For a country such agreements turn into damage, but those who do will be signing with the Montenegrin side, relieve from further persecution. That's the whole calculation.

Improve the situation in the state just a brand new team is not mired in corruption of government leaders and negotiators who will be able to get more favorable terms of EU integration.

M. Lekic, for example, as a consistent supporter of European integration, but not burdened trail of corruption scandals, no ultimatums, running counter to the interests of the country, does not intend to take.

In Montenegro, NATO, hoping to use its geographical position ready to take much earlier, as early as 2014, and that does bode Montenegrins only additional costs. In accordance with the applicable rules of alliance, of which make an exception for Montenegro, no one is going, the country will have to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP, almost three times from the current 50 million to $ 150 million It comes and "a tribute to blood," or sort of modern yanycharstvo, suggesting a parcel to hot spots Montenegrin guys in the concept of "smart power," President Barack Obama aimed at the gradual replacement in high-risk areas of American troops NATO allies, especially among " new converts. " The expected creation of NATO naval base in Boka Kotorska with polluting repair production, which is already eager to throw their shores thrifty Italians, leaving no stone unturned enshrined in the Constitution of the country's environmental status of the nation.

At NATO headquarters in Brussels also carefully study the options for using the main air port on the coast of Montenegro in Tivat. Civil carriers which bring tourists here will clearly make room.

NATO ships in the Montenegrin beaches can also wash them with many tourists. It is no coincidence polls show that only 30% of Montenegrins would like to join the alliance.

The aim of DPS is therefore all costs to avoid the popular will of the country's accession to N
ATO, dragging the necessary decision through parliament. The problem is how to win over missing from DPS to the constitutional two-thirds of a few deputies. From the correspondence of American diplomats posted on the website Wikileaks, it is clear that the U.S. Embassy in Podgorica is also working in this direction, is actively processing the opposition, in particular the Serbian People's Party (SNP). Its leader Andrija Mandic frankly told the U.S. ambassador that there is no support for this idea in the ranks of his colleagues on the NCSA. In Washington, by the way, have noted the negative reaction of the Montenegrin society signed during the visit of President Vujanovic in the U.S. in 2007, the agreement on the status of U.S. troops in their possible stay in Montenegro (SOFA). Under this agreement, the Americans should be granted the right of extraterritoriality and immunity from prosecution for any crimes. The authorities in Podgorica then assured the U.S. Embassy that the noise will soon subside in the shade of some "scandal next week." Then Vujanovic promised to send to Afghanistan, "a small group of officers." But this is only the beginning, even before any accession of Montenegro to NATO.

Montenegrins are a proud people, and they do not like it when someone points them to where they should enter, and where not, even from a "friendly Russia."

However, excessive concessions in the negotiations with the EU and the hasty, without considering the opinion of its own population, "shooting in" NATO objectively lead to the obvious negative consequences for the country. First of all, in this case, Montenegro will be in a position where it will constantly point out how "to behave", especially not listening to her and not going into her interests, as is the case with all the small terms of these global structures. Accept that society will be difficult. Montenegrins do not accidentally with enthusiasm to the self-management practices and policies for non-alignment of the former Yugoslavia, because it met their own historical experience and national spirit. Section Yugoslavia ended. Republican recognized borders, and a real danger for Montenegro does not come from neighbors, and from ineffective leadership and prospects lost in the huge world, hitting a much tighter dependence on external control than it has been so far.

Neutrality — is not passivity and isolation. Neutral Switzerland, Austria, Finland, Sweden — sverhpreuspevayuschie and is very active in the international arena of the country.

In a good relationship with a neutral state interest of all, and then "becomes a little high." A candidate for president of the opposition Miodrag Lekic, who spent many years in the diplomatic service, is well aware of this, and because consistently in favor of holding a referendum on the accession of Montenegro to NATO, stressing that "there are other options" to ensure national security.

Montenegro, as we have already said — the 13th in a row Slavic state, but for her it is not an unlucky number. July 13, 1878, for example, at the Congress of Berlin thanks to the efforts of Russian diplomacy, and its head of Chancellor AM Gorchakov was recognized Montenegro's independence. July 13, 1941 a kind of historical Montenegro response to an attack by Germany on the Soviet Union, which Montenegrins of habit continued to call Russia, has broken out in the country the first in Europe, anti-fascist uprising. It is said that by releasing nearly all of its territory from the Italians, Montenegrins here and there bred big fires, waiting for "Russian paratroopers." However, the joint struggle continued until complete victory after four long years. Now the elections in 2013 — and, according to the established numerical symbolism, they can also be very important to bring Montenegro favorable changes.

According to the materials of the Strategic Culture Foundation

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