Brand new transmission series "Examination of Freedom"
Participants: Deputy Chairman Viktor Ivashkevich BPF editor and analytical bulletin "Belarusian Week" Alexander Klaskouski.
The authorities’ strategy
Valery Karbalevich: Explosion during the days of celebration of Independence dealt a heavy blow to the ideological concept of stability, the style of the head of state as a guarantor of stability itself. Authorities understand and initially tried to minimize the public profile of the explosion. In the first day of municipal media tried to present it as a "small incident", "predatory act". But later, litsezrev real resonance, such inaccuracy realized and changed its strategy. Hence the extraordinary publicity for Belarus in light of this action, the public "disassembly" Lukashenko with the security forces, sonorous resignation. What is the meaning of modern strategy, seeking to justify the public authorities?
Viktor Ivashkevich: Graduate Management presently confused and does not know how to wriggle out of this situation. The reaction was not systematically and disorderly. Go that hints at opposition (on talk shows "Choice" as if the audience voted that the blame for the explosion Belarusian extremists), then bullies, then being tested chemical laboratories.
Alexander Klaskouski: First, I wish to emphasize that all this publicity compulsory. To could hide as in Russian times, it would have done. But it did not work out. After all, the site of the explosion was about half a million people in the web bloggers immediately catapulted information.
Because, as one said on TV ideological chief, Lukashenko immediately ordered the media, "reads people the truth." Separate question appears: what if it had not been ordered, it would lie?
But the authorities have shown a certain elasticity. Litsezrev great response, they realized that silence is the worst strategy. Although the head of the country and was shocked, but he swiftly reoriented and began to squeeze out of this situation PR. Came the traditional placement: There is a wise manager who knows all the best, and klutz-performers. Reverse held a "debriefing" with steep conclusions. Naturally, Lukashenko speaks defender of the people.
Act as effective power structures?
Karbalevich: Certainly, at the moment for them the main thing that citizens have seen that the government does not sleep, and acts decisively. Power can not show weakness. After meeting with Lukashenko in power structures mon began grabbing people indiscriminately to assure its activity. Since security chiefs realize that Lukashenko will not forgive them bezvynikovastsi investigation, in other words a risk that the offender will be "assigned". Poor man can find (and 1st), who "recognized" in the commission of the crime, and the tribunal will be closed. As possible such a scenario?
Ivashkevich: Such a scenario is entirely possible. They are ordinary methods of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) since the Russian era. Recall "Vitebsk deal" when executed several innocent people.
In recent years MVD behave irresponsibly. They perform live panels of people in front of cars, knock people at opposition rallies. There, they are heroes.
I wish to put questions. Where was the Minister of the Interior during these dramatic events? Where was Chairman of the KGB? And Lukashenko said that he had not beheld the power ministers next to him at this time. If winter about 500 businessmen came out to protest, then Interior Minister Naumov personally controlled acceleration. And there were about 500 thousand people, but it is not.
Another question. If the student hooliganism call that a bomb planted in the school, then put up all of the school premises, will find the bomb. In at least some annotations written that when they found one explosive device, then you need to find the others.
And here at the concert two hours before the explosion found the bomb — and did nothing. They say that the dreaded panic. But everything can be was done expertly and efficiently. Teach commandos dissecting opposition rallies. So here you can put shields and walk with a mine detector.
Why sent to resign Sheiman and Nyavyhlas? Where do they? Their resignation — is the result of clan clashes. A security official in the mass action meets police, KGB and their leaders.
In connection with that situation I will initiate before running BPF creation of the public commission of inquiry into the activities of the Interior Ministry and the KGB. Either it’s carelessness or malice?
Repressive machine operates on the machine
Klaskouski: Huge optimism about the search of the offender is not. Indeed, in recent years, came the fall of professionalism in all power structures. After all, in leadership positions are not appointed as the master, how personally devoted head of the country people. But even experts orient first to fight the opposition. They have no time to catch criminals, because it is necessary to disperse the protest.
In addition acts shovels principle faster reported about the disclosure of the crime. For this reason, there were many cases where trushchylisya human destiny.
And finally, there is a paradigm — find enemies among the opposition. Under this brand to shake up the entire opposition. At the same time, I think there is no such command from above, and the repressive machine operates on the machine. "
Karbalevich: Yeah, I think the team is given a general check of all the suspects. And based on the beliefs of local chiefs of the main suspects — this opposition.
Karbalevich: On the one hand, the explosion was a severe blow to the reputation of Lukashenko, made for him a number of problems. But, on the other hand, it gives him a new ability to make what he secretly dreamed of, but did not dare, because there was no reason, there was a push. For example, just to kill the opposition. Or on the contrary, the resignation Shejman gives rise to start the game with the West unblemished sheet. Or something else, for example, the structural configuration of staffing.
Ivashkevich: Appears the obvious question: who is profitable? July 3 an issue of the newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda" interview Lukashenko, where he read about the possibility of explosion. And he took NIGHT MODE. In my opinion, such a blast for Lukashenko’s sudden. Someone caught a tongue and organized explosion.
It is profitable to anyone who is interested to bring arrows and Lukashenka and the opposition. And let them blame each other and fight among themselves. I think it is profitable to the Russian FSB. In addition, the explosion could disrupt slope control Belarus to Europe. And Lukashenko being in confrontation with the West and with the democratic opposition, becomes controlled personality, they can be manipulated by energy prices.
Since the police and KGB behaved during this explosion is very surprising, then I have a suspicion that in these structures, except the Patriots professionals have crooks and politicians who may be involved in such intrigues.
Karbalevich: I wish to make an objection. If we accept this version, in other words a big risk to get working results. It is not always an act of terrorism leads to destabilization of the political regime. Many examples where, on the contrary, such inci
dents led to the strengthening of the regime to consolidate power.
On the other hand, the explosion could trigger geopolitical reverse rotation. For example, you can send in resignation Sheiman and other people with a bad reputation and turn to the West. As a result, our motherland can not win and lose.
Ivashkevich: Explosion may be such, and negotiable. But we have the fact: did such a blast for the problem of Lukashenko. If there was no explosion, then there would be no problem. "
Can blast an impetus for the harsh political configurations?
Klaskouski: "In terms of the dialectic can say that at least some crisis offers and new abilities. But it is clear that at present the authorities can not use the situation to reach a qualitatively new level, then go on to spend the systemic shifts. It came down to clan fights.
It’s a shame that the government did not use the chance to consolidate society. She did not resist the temptation transparent hint at involvement in opposition to an explosion.
Lukashenko also could claim that no matter what anyone more day to celebrate Independence — July 3, July 27, or March 25 — have we, Belarusians, is civilization, and there are offenders who have committed a blast. Let’s stand together against the dangers wherever it originates. But such statements are not sounded.
Now for the game with the West. If peremptory chessboard shoot a couple of figures, Western politicians are not so naive as to not realize that the principles of the Belarusian policy remain the same.