Tsigankov: "Things seem to improve — improve the extent to which this will be ready on both sides. Worth mentioning that while in state system of Belarus is not a lot that has changed after the release of political prisoners: the law on unregistered organizations acts, freedom of assembly and demonstrations does not appear, do not become a free press, this must be kept in mind, and the election campaign proves that a huge change in this regard should not hope.
I believe that the people of 5-10 candidates will be in the House, and it will also be a new quality. They will criticize their will on all sides pinats, but it will be a new approach to the quality of the presidential campaign. This — the main goal. And if the opposition does not make "restart" if it will not proceed from the interests of the people will not go to the people, will not solve their problems, not paying attention to who is now the head of the country, it will fade into marginal positions and will provide a than some have become favorites of the BPF, which left the political arena, as states that want to hear from people, and not what people want to hear for yourself. "
Drakakhrust"Jakubowicz, maybe for you is not very comfortable to answer this question … But, you know, the power in Belarus directly control many sectors of public life. Completely natural that she rules the opposition and the authorities. So here in this order management — which configuration, in your opinion, should happen in opposition in connection with the recent policy of the authorities? "
Yakubovich"Power is not going to completely control the opposition. Configurations in opposition — the case of the opposition itself. Very often I read that there is a basic thing that some of our opposition politicians do not want to realize — that some states attempt to undermine our economic component immediately lead to complex political consequences. I am very glad that at the moment on this topic is very clear and seems impressive Milinkevich says. If the opposition will go the way of real understanding of the situation, instead of clicks "Shame!" and endless fehtavannya among themselves about completely useless fact are fascinating to the general public, then the opposition may become systemic and become a true political opposition, which, apart from the word "no" to learn how to read "yes" in those cases when it is a defining moment for the country and society. "
Tsigankov "Power did everything in order to significant, if not most of the opposition was the dissidents, who are doing very little impact on policy. And the current situation provides an opportunity, in a sense, dramatic, change it. I believe that part of the opposition will go by more legitimate and structural, which read Yaroslav, the other part will be more constructive method. And this can lead to a split.
Some perastseragayutstsa that rapprochement with the West, the official Minsk can destroy the opposition, because it will be moved away from making some decisions that the West will be in contact with the authorities in particular. Such a threat is there, but it seems to me that it is not the most severe, so the opposition specific contacts with Western favorites and people out there who make the decisions. And she will find the opportunity to defend their point of view.
Maybe the opposition will have to become more "patriotic." She will have to support what is positive and criticize almost everything bad.
Worse than a political regime, much less justified radicalism. If the regime is willing to do something positive, it is tempting to underpin radicalism.
I am for the fact that the opposition was united not only by the principle of "We do not like Lukashenko." I do a lot of things in the world do not like me, say, Belarus weather is not always like it, but I have to put up with what we have. The opposition is now more than ever, should read about their own positive image of Belarus, not only about what we are against, but also what we stand for, what we Belarus flawless want to build. "
Drakakhrust"This week aired another very fundamental event — Lukashenko-Medvedev summit in Sochi. Tongued After silence Minsk in the first days of the Caucasian war cry sounded at first Russian ambassador, and later" invitation "in Sochi, which looked like a call to the head on the carpet . In the metropolitan press reported that this silence was worth Minsk refusal loan of 2 billion dollars.
In Sochi Lukashenko sounded from the lips of determining Russian policy in the Caucasus, which looks at whether the limit samaprynizhennem then hid izymatelstvom, they say, everything was made "relaxed, wisely and well." Well, maybe someone’s mind and wise, but not very relaxed and beautiful as any look.
Information about some katigorichnye ultimatums that have been exposed to the Belarusian government in Sochi, no official communique reports only on plans to sign an agreement on a unified air defense system of 2-states. Plans for this for many years, well, not quite clear whether their implementation (which hitherto quite obvious), so much a leap into the military integration of 2-states. But on the other hand, not all of what they say the leaders of the falls in the official records. In addition, the new year approaching, the new gas prices.
Like would you assess the current state of the Belarusian-Russian relations and their future, as they (and work, and in particular perspective) associated with the latest phenomenon — Belarus without political prisoners? Yakubovich, what do you think? "
Yakubovich"I believe that for Russia Belarusian" political prisoners "do not play any role, and is unlikely to Kim and Parsyukevich someone in Russia knowledge. So there in Belarus so called" political prisoners "or not — to Russian control is not irrelevant, their have Khodorkovsky term which surpasses all that is here, in Belarus, and no sense that the Kremlin does not.
There are problems for Russia military cooperation, there are problems in raw material prices and a lot of others, but the problem of the state of public opinion in Belarus, Belarusian political problem Russia is not interested in full. "
Drakakhrust"Yaroslav, and what is your answer to the question is more convenient — on the current state of the Belarusian-Russian relations and their future? Denkov was a press conference Russian Ambassador Alexander Surikov, he stated that, say, the fall will talk about the cost of gas. And nedavneshnim events and moods as the Kremlin felt that this conversation is not very warm. "
Romanchuk"I would have referred to relations between Belarus and the Kremlin (it’s not something that Russia) coldly pragmatic. Kremlin understands that Lukashenko — this is not the kind of person who can do their strategy. He does what is required of him, only then when he was cornered, and therefore uniformly Our homeland, this year more vigorously than before, and his Belarusian economy in this corner and drives.
Therefore there is no negotiations on gas now. But if we are talking about the relationship between Lukashenko a
nd other players in the Russian field — military, diplomats, "Lukoil", "Rosneft" — there are very different things, and to the Kremlin here nothing can stop it.
The talks will be the principal factor agreement between Belarus and Russia on defense. That Poland has signed a contract with the U.S. on missile defense — is another gift to us because of this you can bargain for some means to ensure that fill rise in gas prices. In what form will this compensation — we’ll see, but certainly that Lukashenko manetyzavats try this latest political reality. "
Drakakhrust"You have said — to corner. Now explain that the" angle "it will be comfortable enough — it will be this lucky with this air defense system. So the angle is not in the corner, then you predict disaster in the next year or not? "
Romanchuk"To stymie need time, even two or three years. And the reasons that would prevent these plans of — this spa is the cooperation in anti-Western geopolitical projects. Lukashenko would read again about the trenches that we jointly rottenness, but all this will do everything to prevent splyvannya real political and economic power in the Kremlin.
Now the Kremlin and the same sire Surikov were again talk about the single currency. But I do not think it’s close to the reality of the project. But Lukashenko, for example, can not block the entrance to Russian banks and other structures on the Belarusian market, they are here already. And how will the risk of devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, the only source of liquidity, credits will only Our homeland and its commercial banks. Then this operation, which was carried out in the most of in the 1990s — the exchange of debt to assets — will be implemented in Belarus. But next year, no collapse will not. "
Drakakhrust"Vitaly, you have said that one of the reasons for the release of political prisoners — is the result of threats from Russia. But Jaroslav believes that if the" angle "is seen here and there, only a couple of years."
Tsigankov"As for the case of the Russian Federation to Belarus without political prisoners I agree with Pavel Yakubovich, that Russia is not fundamentally. Not those times, when Yeltsin was:" Let him first Sheremet release. "It is unrealistic to imagine being that Putin or Medvedev ensure that in Belarus Kozulin was released, even though in Belarus itself Kozulin perceived and is perceived as quite pro-Russian politician.
The former Soviet Union countries are connected by voedinyzhdy types of political systems, democratic country to democratic bent. authoritarian — to discover similarities. Because today’s Belarus — Natural sayuznitsa current Russia. What happens between them, are variations on the theme of the Russian proverb "cute swear, is upset," though arguing stubbornly.
Generally, when we recall here the forecasts, I argued in 1996 that Our homeland is not going to overthrow Lukashenko. But I can not agree with Yaroslav that Lukashenko Our homeland drives into a corner, or more precisely — is trying to drive. It is a common policy, he was to her a partner, but she wishes that he was dependent on a partner. This is a common imperial policy. Our homeland so willing to treat all of the former Russian republics. "Tags: political prisoners, west