Agreement on the Iranian nuclear program, «bad» or «very bad»?

Agreement on the Iranian nuclear program,
On Sunday night, Iran and «six» countries mediating in Geneva agreed. In media reports that Iran now has to stop on the nuclear program from 6 months and temporarily finish construction of a reactor in Arak. West pledged to withdraw from Tehran threatening economic sanctions. In general, the latter is open to question: the West had never hurried lift sanctions, and even here in the Middle East and heard angry voices. Diplomatic success negotiators in Geneva was not appreciated in Israel and Saudi Arabia. That found a positive result in the states of the «six» in Iran and many other countries, in Tel Aviv and Riyadh, which then listed with nedavneshnih regional allies declared «bad,» «very bad» and even so, that completely deprives sleep.

Agreement on the Iranian nuclear program there, «poor» or «very bad»?

Future six months «Six» and Iran intend to continue the negotiations are going. Countries may wish to mediating make sure that Iran keeps its word. Tehran, in turn, longs absolutely defend the right to peaceful nuclear programs from implementation: Iran needs to create fuel for nuclear power plants.
But not all so simple. The very creation is already causing a lot of hesitation and prirekany the West.

John Kerry after the talks in Geneva, said the channel «Fox News», that the agreement does not contain provisions for the recognition of the right of Iran to enrich uranium. U.S. Secretary of State said that the agreement was reached, and the refusal of Iran’s existing 200 kg of 20% enriched uranium. Six months later, these kg should not remain anything. Apparently, this will be a test of Iran to «lice.»

A Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran Javad Zarif said something else. According to him, «sacred right» Iran’s peaceful nuclear energy will go into a future agreement with the «six.»

Minister of Foreign Affairs Comrade Lavrov said that the Geneva agreement involves «strict IAEA supervision» over Iran’s nuclear applets and that the goal of the negotiations «fixed» in the agreement.

«Interfax» also leads the Israeli assessment of the agreement signed by the parties in Geneva.

Israeli Cabinet negatively assessed the agreement. Speaking on Israel’s Army Radio, Naftali Bennett, Minister of Economy, said: «Israel does not see itself limitations associated with the signed naughty, very naughty agreement.»

Here Tel Aviv faced with Washington. According to an anonymous U.S. administration who spoke to reporters after talks Barack Obama has expressed a desire to talk with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and explain to the essence of the agreement.

Recently, though, and it looks a little funny, due to the fact that the Geneva talks were held behind closed doors, and the information about them in the media so far are very sparsely represented. Analysts and operate more hypotheses and predictions, if the facts.

Natalia Kovalenko («Voice of Russia») led razlyubeznaya expression professionals about nuclear «deal». It seems fascinating world dilemmas special on Central Asia and the Middle East Seeds Bagdasarova:

«No wonder the defined period of 6 months, during which the world community and, first, the country» six «must make sure that Iran is ready to really make commitments that took over. The fact that there is a powerful inside Iranian opposition though how similar a negotiated solution. This control of the Revolutionary Guards and the security forces in general. This is the first. Second: you expressly recognize that during these six months, Israel and Saudi Arabia do everything possible to put a swing sincerity of Iran in the performance of duties. Since these countries are not interested in bringing the West and Iran. «

As for Israel, he is dissatisfied with not only what pleased with the West, and the fact that the Geneva talks were preceded by a meeting of the American secret diplomacy with Iranian representatives. What did come out? While sovereign Netanyahu renders «red lines», the Americans found a reason to make friends with Iran. America in general, seem slowed down and reverses: it is seen as on the situation with Syria and Iran on the situation. What there bunker busters! .. Now it turns out that Obama knowingly received the Nobel Peace Prize. Wonders, well, only.

As noted MIGnews.com, public rapprochement Iran and the United States was preceded by a series of bilateral meetings between the various South American and Iranian officials. It recognized an unnamed representative of the Obama administration.

A senior U.S. official said that four American-Iranian secret meetings were held with the inauguration of a day or Rouhani in August. By the way, the South American officials informed their Israeli counterparts of the main content of discussions. Chief negotiators from the Yankees were William Burns, U.S. undersecretary of state, and Jake Sullivan, national security advisor, the U.S. Vice President.

Past Iranian bureaucrat confirmed the secret talks and said that they were carried out with the approval of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. «All the meetings were held with the Yankees with the blessing favorite. The first was the most difficult, especially when we had to convince our foremost authority on the positive results of these meetings, «- said a senior Iranian last bureaucrat. «The leader gave the green light, but considering their results without optimism, — he said. — We took a risk, but we won. «

Communication channel through Oman suggested U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.

Answering the question whether the secret meetings played an important role in achieving nuclear agreement, a senior South American bureaucrat replied: «Yes.»

On the background of the fact that the Iranian issue appeared filmed with a day or geopolitical agenda (at least, six months), some in the Middle East, gritted his teeth.

While many members of the world community recognized the agreement Iran and «six» major step, most of the Arab countries, especially the member countries of the Cooperation Council of Arab Gulf countries, have been quiet, reports Trend. ITAR-TASS Vasily Vavilin.

«People throughout the Near East fail relaxed sleep after Merit agreement between Iran and naikrupneyshim powers,» — said the head of the international affairs committee of the Consultative Council of Saudi Arabia Abdullah Al-Askyar.

Notwithstanding such a sharp reaction, Foreign kingdom is not officially designated the position. In the midst of the UAE and the GCC only Bahrain made statements.

A government statement said the UAE: «The government hopes that this event will be a step towards achieving constant agreement that will ensure stability in the region and protect him from the threat of proliferation of nuclear weapons.»

The Foreign Minister of Bahrain Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed bin Mohammed Al Khalifa, said: «With this agreement, we, Iran and other countries got rid of fear.»

So Makar, those who spoke, «get rid of fear,» and those who prefer to officially silent, «fail to quiet sleep.»

And that still deprived of sleep last?

On the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs appeared unofficial translation of «Joint Action Plan» (Joint Plan of Action), generated by the results of the negotiations in Geneva.

From the first lines of the document that the purpose of negotiations «six» with Tehran — to achieve a mutually agreed solution long, providing only a peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear applets. As if nothing terrible; may dispense with valerian. But here’s more: «This decision will allow Iran vseobyatnoe fully enjoy their right to nuclear energy for peaceful purposes in accordance with the best articles of the NPT in strict compliance with its obligations under this Agreement. This vseobyatnoe decision will include a mutually agreed program from enrichment practical limitations and transparency measures in order to ensure a peaceful disposition program. «

This is exactly what Tel Aviv with some ingenuity can declare Iran’s military nuclear applets.

But read further: «This decision vseobyatnoe will represent a whole, where nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.»

Virtuoso wording! Explain its dual is simply unrealistic — even Jewish ingenuity and American double etalons. Valerian and in fact not required.

According to the document, monitoring the implementation of the short-term measures will produce the Joint Commission «six» and Iran, and for verification of measures related to nuclear activities, the IAEA will respond. The Joint Commission shall cooperate with the IAEA — the fact that all concerns were in the past. This is exactly what Comrade Lavrov explained, saying that Iran gets nuclear programm now under «strict control of the IAEA.»

Israel could be scared by the fact that «voluntary measures» of Iran are not that different, as an obvious compromise «six» with Iran, and Iran does not make concessions «six».

From the available uranium enriched to 20%, Tehran will keep half in the oxide form to the level of enrichment to 20% in order to produce fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor, the document says. The remaining part of the same level of enrichment up to 20% will be depleted to less than 5%.

As for the alleged parties 6 months, in this period, Iran will not enrich uranium beyond 5%.

Iran will not move in the activities on the fuel enrichment plant at Natanz, the facility in Fordow, a reactor in Arak and will not create new jobs for enrichment. With all this, Iran will continue its R & D under IAEA safeguards, including today’s R & D enrichment is not designed to increase supplies of enriched uranium.

For control of the IAEA, Iran is committed to providing the most complete information of the organization against nuclear facilities, including even data plans. All this information, including on nuclear reactors for naming objects above, Tehran will need to provide in the coming three months. IAEA inspectors should also have access to facilities where centrifuges are going to object to production of centrifuge components and their places of storage, in the end, to the uranium mines and mills uranium ore processing. All this is written in the document.

All this should not worry because Israel or the Saudis. The latter, of course, very upset because Iran — their raw materials rival, but still do not like Shia Wahhabis. But while anger seems finished, coupled with the bombing of Libya, besides the United States is now the new geopolitical rival and even in some sense the enemy — China, America and just not up to the Near East. Beijing won on a day or decided to expand the area of ​​air defense in the waters, whose membership defend his neighbors (Tokyo and Seoul), and in a white house clutching his head. Talking about air defense identification zone in the East China Sea, which contains the place over the Senkaku Islands and seamount Iodo near the island of Jeju. National Security Council under the President of the United States has already given to recognize Beijing that Washington was very concerned.

We return to the negotiations Iran and «six». According to the document on the website of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the country’s «six» in response to the good behavior of Iran will take follow-up (also volunteer).

Efforts to decrease the volume of Iranian crude oil sales will be suspended. Permitted and repatriation agreed volume of crude oil purchased by money held abroad. Suspends EU and U.S. sanctions against related insurance and transport services.

Iran will be allowed to export oil. Suspended and will be sanctions against gold, precious metals, automotive and other Iranian

Not much of the U.S. administration will channel money to facilitate trade in the humanitarian sphere for Iran’s domestic needs (food, agricultural products, medical sphere) using funds acquired from the sale of Iranian oil and held abroad.

The final step vseobyatnogo solutions start no later than one year after the adoption of the document. We are talking about a mutually agreed programmke enrichment together with certain parameters, with restrictions on the scope and level of enrichment work and enrichment facilities are also places where the enrichment is carried out, as supplies of enriched uranium. After the successful execution of the final step for the duration of his deeds to the Iranian nuclear program there will be the same as they do to programmke least some other State party to the NPT, not owning nuclear weapons, stated in the document.

Here, in fact, all that is clear about the negotiations and their results. Nothing «bad» for Israel and Saudi Arabia is not here. May give the impression that those who talk about the «bad» agreement, «good» outcome of the talks would be considered a decision about tomorrow’s bombing of Iran. The same is apparently necessary and the Saudis: they even go back to the UN Security Council and have become friends anew with Washington. Especially if Washington would simultaneously overwhelmed «Tomahawks» Syria where bred so many Shiites.

But the United States went the other way. And whitewashed house distinguished not only in theory, and in practice. The U.S. has already thawed eight billion dollars of assets of Iran.

Igor Dunaevsky («Russian Newspaper») spoke about dialogue U.S. President and the Prime Minister of Israel. Telephone conversation between Obama and Netanyahu took place on Sunday.

The Israeli prime minister criticized the Geneva accords, calling them «a historic mistake.» In response, the owner of the White House tried to calm Netanyahu, assuring that «the U.S. as ever want to prevent the creation of a nuclear Iran.»

Press office of the presidential administration announced: «Obama offered Netanyahu immediately begin consultations on the Iranian dilemma in order to find a more suitable solution, also confirmed that the Israelis have a good reason not to trust to Tehran.»

This distrust and experiencing massive Israeli lobby in Washington. Reporter shows that Democratic Senator from the State of New-york Chuck Schumer said: «Iran will benefit from the Geneva agreements much more than an international society, and therefore both Democrats and Republicans have further month to discuss new sanctions against Tehran.»

I wonder: who exactly here apparently under the «international community»? ..

As to the discussion in Congress and the powerful impact of the Jewish lobby in Congress, the Obama administration in late October gave lobbyists realize that their pressure should be discontinued.

As reported by «Lenta.ru,» referring to the «The Jerusalem Post», Jewish lobbyists in Washington met a counselor Obama’s national security Susan Rice, her deputy and Ben Rhodes, Tony Blinken, as Deputy Secretary of the Municipal Wendy Sherman.

They all claimed, that lobbyists finished sample to push through the Senate the new sanctions at a time when the U.S. business has started to establish and Iran after three decades of strife. According to the newspaper, talking diplomats and lobbyists had been «exaggerated colors on.»

It seems that Netanyahu and Obama quite separated in geopolitical vision. And nepoprostu Obama to Defense Minister is Chuck Hagel. When Vietnam veteran candidate ministers last winter biased senators subjected to interrogation, he was reminded of his «anti-Semitic» past. The fact is that, working in the Senate in 1997-2009., Chuck often criticized the policies of Israel and refuses to support the initiatives of the pro-Israel American public organizations. At one point, he even expressed disapproval of a powerful «Jewish lobby» in the United States, saying that he «is not Israel, and South American senator.» Then he stuck a shortcut and an anti-Semite.

As a senator, Charles Hagel sample condemned the U.S. and Israel to push for war with Iran. In his own bold judgments he reached that allowed for the possibility of negotiations with «Hezbollah». All this is reasonably fit into the mainstream solution to the Iranian nuclear prepyadstviya diplomatic means.

At the winter «interrogation» in the Senate Hagel also said that the problem of a nuclear Iran should be solved with the help of international sanctions, which must be agreed with Russia and the UN Security Council.

As we see, for the past few months everything went exactly according to plan davneshnemu Hagel.

Incidentally, after the signing of the agreement in Geneva South American president warned that if Iran does not comply with the promises, the sanctions will resume in full. To check Iran and diverted the same six months, referred to in the agreement.

Israel and Saudi Arabia rage, so Makarov, even since their hands are tied now. Bound by the international society that promoted the decision «nuclear issue» diplomatically by the way. News about the success of the agreement among the first publicly confirmed, incidentally, the minister of foreign affairs of France Laurent Fabius — and in fact opposed to the last Paris Iranian nuclear program there. English as minister of foreign affairs, William Hague, said with emotion: «The good news for the whole world.»

Canceled. In other words, not bad. Only Israel believes differently. And so say some «people of all Near East», which from now on «fail quietly to sleep.» Single reaction Tel Aviv and Riyadh on the outcome of negotiations in Geneva only secures analysts thought that today’s alliance of Israel and Saudi Arabia — not information «stuffing.» Obviously, from the sovereign Netanyahu should wait for the new «red lines»: hard to come up with something else. But hardly Obama will act on these bands: South American president himself not so long ago lopuhnulsya with «lines» Syrian and his rating has acquired a curve, sadly creeping down. Advances international diplomacy to what Barack Hussein is now trying to imitate Comrade Putin may slightly raise the graphical curve …

Surveyed and commented Oleg Chuvakin

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