Is Belarus remains an authoritarian state? Will change its present Russian entourage? On these topics in the program "Prague accent" argue writer Svetlana Aleksievich, chief editor of the newspaper "Nasha Niva" Andrei Dynko and publicist Alexander Fyaduta.
Drakakhrust"What’s the legacy of Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus continue in life after his departure? Now such a question seems absurd, an indication that the withdrawal will happen soon, is insignificant. But such a question — a method to reflect that in our present life — current, temporary, must be especially today control the country, and that — more robust, long-term.
From time to time and even dreams arguments about "what if …", reduced to hope that the years of Lukashenka’s rule after his departure razveyutstsa like a bad dream, wake up and Belarusians in June 1994. But, watching the effects of the most outstanding "color revolutions" in recent years, often come to the conclusion, as there is not much really changed, and that the matrix, this authoritarian rulers, remained unshaken.
Let’s try to predict that the current legacy still remains in the future. Let’s start with democracy. Now it is not. A will? Is the experience of Lukashenka’s rule will not be a stumbling block to his successors, even if they come from the most democratic opposition? They will know what is possible and so.
On the other hand — is it possible that there will be real democracy, and after a while people will say: "When Lukashenko was the order, and at the moment — a mess"? Fyaduta Alexander, the first question for you. "
Fyaduta"Save, in my opinion. And I have two reason to think so. During 1-x, the economic and political reforms can, in my opinion, only through authoritarian mechanisms of power. And specifically to ensure that democracy was established rapidly, brand new power should be acting in the same authoritarian Lukashenko as.
And in-2, the current Lukashenko’s opponents have the same political experience, he did. They are not actually saying Democrats: look what is happening at the moment in the BPF, look, behave as representatives of the United Democratic Forces, if it is about the attempt to discuss their position and their actions, and you will see that it is — then mirror in which Lukashenko looks. "
Drakakhrust"Andrei Dynko whether you agree with the prediction of Alexander?"
Dynko"I think the question is, what will be the political system after Lukashenko remains open. Than longer Lukashenko will hold power in the country, the less likely that the system that he laid to continue after his quarter-final. Such systems are" sharpened "under one rights. And as experience shows, they are not saved after leaving this man.
Need to pay attention that segodnyaschy system except else besides Dysfunctional. For example, we have a parliament that does not play the role of parliament, he plays the role of one of legitimizing decisions made by the executive, and less. Talk about the complete stability of this system is not necessary, although the words of John Maksimyuk that Lukashenko laid elements of statehood, that it will survive — it makes sense. Well, let’s say he did the normal customs system, the Border Service, Internal Revenue Service, it is clear that they will be preserved. But, say, a committee of municipal control — I have a swing. "
Drakakhrust"Svetlana Aleksievich Andrew approached the issue of technology, examining the fate of the state system for certain institutions. Well, if you look at the whole, perfectly: a system that will be after Lukashenko will approximate to the system that exists in, say, Poland or Lithuania or it will be only a certain modification that there are at the moment? "
Aleksievich"I believe that the need to share that Lukashenko did and what did time. Customs, Border Guard Service — making it dictated the time, so do your neighbors. This is not his thing.
That still did Lukashenko himself? I dare say that he did nothing new, it’s a continuation of what we had. This General Secretary, only just now president with the same capabilities and power, except that with the disobedience of Moscow. And the rest — it’s Stalinist organization. I never see Lukashenko everywhere sticks Stalin.
We say that Stalin was gone. And who was after him, who remained even after the "thaw" of the Khrushchev after riot nomenclature underestimated Stalin? Stalin remained a man.
Lukashenko failed to substantiate that socialism was a resource that has not been worked out that way, in favor of Gorbachev says, its scale. Lukashenko indirectly substantiate that if we were more clever leaders, the development could go the other method, folk country, people’s capitalism, not nomenclature and nestled as we have at the moment. It would be a way to focus on malehankih person.
I’m not a fan of Lukashenko, but he, unfortunately, like most of my people. This man is Russian, and Lukashenko — is his mirror.
The only thing that remains after Lukashenko and what will be considered as though what his successor — that is what the government should be national. She was not popular, which could be, but a certain social contract with the population and was the nearest time vytrymlivavsya. Anyway, it was declared. I believe he will go down in history as diverse figure, if he just goes without blood. "
Drakakhrust"Svetlana Aleksievich already said about savetskasts about savetskasts structured, meaningful. And I want to talk about savetskasts outside, because it is also an important factor.
Belarusian regime, maybe not the most repressive in the former USSR, but exactly — the Russian, at least in the entourage. And the appeal of "comrades" that emanates from the mouth of the President, and architecture, and change white-red-white flag on a patched-up Russian and transfer days of Independence on July 3 — day Minsk was liberated from the Nazis — all intended to create a memory, Belarus continues to live in the USSR. Such concentration savetskastsi no not that in Kiev or Vilnius, but even in Ashgabat or Tashkent.
And after Lukashenko — is it? Maybe it’s not only that the current president — a typical romantic savetskastsi, and in his belief that it works in the ideological sense, but something else will not work? Maybe that will soon enough be sure and his successor, whoever they were? "
Dynko"Svetlana Aleksievich very wisely asked to share what he did Lukashenko, and that dictated the time. In such a closed, isolated system as segodnyaschy Belarus, we sometimes tend to reduce everything to the actions of one person’s or at least a backroom group, which produces power. actually depend on freedoms and the activities of millions of people, each of which in its own way has an impact on the course of history, each of which has a creator own civilization, their own country and its future.
Lukashenkovtsy carefully molded from his own image of the Belarusian leader Ataturk, even nicknamed him elected similar — Ata-Turk — Turkish means "father of the Turks." Turkmenbashi, incidentally,
is also the "father of the Turkmen" …
Lukashenkovtsy behold the present system in the embryo endless motor that will be able to survive. But for all that they are doing a huge mistake. Why Atatürk legacy was such a long-term, why it is valued in their own country? As he led his steel hand the country in the future, upgrade evrapeizavav it.
Inheritance of Lukashenko remain that was aimed at the future, that predict the future. And all that was aimed at the past, to resurrect. It is a law of history.
In this sense — regarding Russian heritage. Lukashenko imposes this Russian heritage, he drives the force of the Soviet society "skin". It seems to me that all this absypletstsa and burst like a Belarusian society has outgrown itself. "
Drakakhrust"Svetlana Aleksievich here Andrew said that, in his view, Lukashenko" imposes Russian heritage Belarusian society. "And that’s it — resists this as something completely alien to him?"
Aleksievich"I can not, unfortunately, share romanticism Andrew. Denkov on I went to the store in their own area. It is the center of the town, the area is rich enough. And saw a lady (she is a teacher, we talked to her once), which buys pavdyasyatki eggs and 200 gr itself a cheap sausage. And I feel that I shamefully beside her best to take something …
I totally Russian man with Russian complexes and I am proud of these complexes. I’m not going to dance in front of liberal values, where a small man does not belong in that. Although I — liberalka stubborn. But I do not like that little man thrown out of a wheelchair, who jumps clear where. Guideline no.
Landmark have intellectuals in the younger generation, as Andrew says. But we, unfortunately — in his mad urban society, we marginalized outcasts. I have a house in the village. So that’s all what we’re talking completely unclear and unnecessary to my friend Peter Seliverstavichu who lives there with me.
What keeps Lukashenko what keeps savetskasts? He did not declare it, he just realized that this his only chance to stay.
I remember in the first months of his own reign, he wanted to invite Yavlinsky. It was another Lukashenko. But the real "political animal," he smelled that other people also. About democracy here knows only a couple of intellectuals, and even then it just seems that they know it.
As for the future days, of course, that society will delaminate, will all be sold, let’s go by the Russian Federation, will be rich and poor. And today’s farms — there are millions of poor people, they will hold on to the Russian. Unprofitable factories, millions of people are thrown out from work — they will also hold Russian.
In our romantic dreams we feel that it carries Lukashenko for all this responsibility. And you think that the empire, which had such a strong philosophy that shed so much blood, so just go away? "
Drakakhrust"Alexander Fyaduta and whose romanticism closer to you — either Svetlana Andrew?"
Fyaduta"Well, I generally shy, you know. ‘Cause me closer pessimistic romanticism Mrs. Aleksievich. And to confirm what it said, I remember the story of the former head of the presidential administration Leonid Sinitsyna how Lukashenko chose the economic model of the country. He then asked Deputy Prime Minister Ling, whether he knows what the market. "No," — said Ling. He said nearly half of the government, and the government has already had some experience in the market. But after Prime CHigir even said that sincerity, does not know what the market, Lukashenko said Sinitsyn: "That’s it. We will build what we know. Know socialism. "
And the fact that this model was chosen better adapted to life than we all thought and expected, really confirms the rightness of what goes Aleksievich.
Thing indeed, not Lukashenko, the fact that every Belarusian lives Lukashenko. It contains both Russian and Belarusian. And this explosive mixture and there are certain grounds for believing that Lukashenko will not go away as an ideological figure. He would go only as head of state. But he remains in the hearts of men. Now the older generation nostalgic for Stalin, and those who will become tomorrow the older generation will nastalgiyavats by Lukashenko. "
Dynko"In the words of Svetlana Aleksievich me most hooked her unshakable belief that nothing in this world is changing. Such ekleziyastychnaya faith. I assume the other, from the fact that everything changes, nothing stands still. States that Belarusians will always be Russian, Russian as they were and are, in other words to refuse people in any impact on the public processes. Belarusians will not Russian, as I do not wish, as I am acting against it. And people like me — a thousand. And the activity of thousands of people will bear fruit.
Svetlana says that a small man in nothing put in the liberal world, calls us Belarusian intellectuals "mad city." We — not crazy, we are doctors. The role of intellectuals in such a situation as it is now, just to be doctors.
What still concerns malehankih man, he is just a liberal in the world, in liberal democracies reserved. Why do people feel happy in Denmark, in Germany, but feel the evil fruit in Belarus (as evidenced by the case studies)? Last but not least — in the sense of insecurity that reigns in us, due to insecurity malehankih man as Svetlana calls it, or refer to it as a commoner lukashenkovtsy.
What he Belarus excellent — it is one of the greatest legends of Lukashenka, to him and should be treated as a myth. Let’s look at the specific realities of present-day Belarus. Belarus has reached the first position in the world in the number of suicides per capita. By the number of murders per 100 thousand population in Belarus 8 times higher than the level of the European Union. Lukashenko himself has admitted that in the last 5 years, the crime rate in Belarus increased by 70%. We look wildly degradation of human capacity.
Svetlana says that spivalisya Belarus always spivalisya and councils, and with the king. But at least some people who followed the Belarusian village of 50 or 30 years, will say that the village occurred in this sense katigorichnye configuration. I — a young man, but even in the years of my youth in the village drank much less, and the ladies did not drink in general. In fact, the system is to blame for Lukashenka is what is going on this degradation of human capacity.
Why? Since people do not behold the actual prospects. Also their responsibility, people are deprived of supplies, people are included in the system of economic relations in which their is not enough that depends. In the end, one of the components of the system we have now in Belarus, there is the cult of force, which also causes injury causes complexes and destroys social capital.
What we left after Lukashenko — is degraded social capital. That this Belarus will have enormous difficulties. It is easier to rebuild the fallen infrastructure easier to rebuild the economic system, but even more difficult to re-people who steal pryvuchylisya because "all around the collective, all around me," which pryvuchylisya drink, because there is nothing to do, who seek pryvuchylisya own fist. Here, it will have to live long years. "
Drakakhrust"This is about the fact that Andrew had read about the degradation of the social, huma
n capital. Alexander, you, as I know, some time doing political work in Ukraine. Can you compare these processes there and in Belarus?"
Fyaduta"Ukrainians degraded significantly lower degree. And it felt very hurt me. Is such indicator — with the success of another person. Envy in Ukraine is virtually absent, especially among youth. Youth looks at a successful person and says for itself — we also such will. We will work and we get something. Well, I do not have the empire that Renat Ahmetav, but I will have a small printing press, a small hair salon or something else. youth aspires to it.
We is unrealistic. Unrealistic for all, except a very small number of young people, whose ancestors did for the conditions. And others can not get a decent job, can not get start-up capital to start your own business. And this sense of hopelessness, a sense of lack of prospects — is what keeps Lukashenko. This is particularly felt at the moment, when the real privatization and found that their own Belarusian privatizers no, no people who could legally purchase the property, which is owned by the Belarusian state and become its masters.
Vasily Leonov once said to me — not even the worst thing is that there are rich people in Belarus, and that those rich people who will not feel the Belarusians, they will come, not from around here. And for them Belarusians will aborigines civilization employees and less.
In fact, I wish to say a compliment to you, Yuri. You as elected representatives of the current interlocutors 3 different generations utopians. Each of us in his own head utopia — and Madame Aleksievich and I, and the emperor Dynko. These utopias different the experience that has a generation of each of us. What we are discussing now — it crash 2-utopias, and my mistress Aleksievich his, and only one of us who have some optimism, although this utopian optimism — is sovereign Dynko. And thank God, if he, not we, will be right. "
Aleksievich"Andrew said," traces Lukashenko will not, as I do not want to. " Dear Andrew, I do not want this, but I’m more sober for all the idea. Fyaduta rights, I really have no optimism that bio that you have the full. I close that read Brodsky — Solzhenitsyn thinks it’s all about communism, and the case in man.
We spaznyaemsya without Lukashenko to the formation of civilization, we have not yet reached the stage of people. I think that our young people have a chance to save what honor civilization, they also idealists. They once again simplify the task. Do not count on the revolution. will be a slow, creeping evolution. And we associate with Denmark — it’s all fun. In the best case possible to associate Russia. In the West, democratic mechanism adtochvavsya centuries, do not even look there. It’s like the birth of a lady — you can not jump certain stages.
No generation of utopians, which read Alexander, can not now say, "I know how it is." Yes we do not know anything. That exploded on July 4. And no one knows what really is it — or any games or single madness. We did not even present for yourself what awaits us ahead, we’re just not ready for it. People on the other side windows live by their own laws, business — according to its own power — on their own, and we, the intellectuals — on their own. And utopianism such criteria — it is criminal. "Tags: Lukashenko, Fyaduta, Dynko, Aleksievich