Since the beginning of the conflict with Georgia Our homeland was in international isolation. How to assess the position of the CIS countries in this regard? What geopolitical implications for the post-Soviet space can have this war? How different is the position of Belarus in respect of the Russian-Georgian conflict? Participants: political commentator Russian edition "newspaper" Vadim Dubnov from Moscow political analyst Andrei Fedorov from Minsk.
The ratio of the CIS states to the Russian-Georgian conflict
Valery Karbalevich: "It seems that the start of military operations in Georgia, Our homeland was in international isolation. The only state that has supported Moscow became Cuba. From the outset it was clear that the West would side with Georgia. But what stance the CIS countries, was unclear. Our homeland has formally allies of the military-political contract of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which are in a crisis situation should speak in support of member organizations. Topics more than that opponent of — Georgia — comes to another political organization, GUAM, other geopolitical orientation. Like you rate the position of the post-Soviet space in this conflict? "
Vadim Dubnov: "Friends CSTO behaved because both had to behave. Indeed, this organization does not become effective either militarily or politically. She could not become such. CSTO member countries have long been another motivation, which does not provide for the creation of any interstate or supranational structures. I hardly imagine for myself, so, for example, Our homeland has supported Armenia in case of conflict with Azerbaijan. Same can be said about the CIS.
On the other hand, it makes sense to consider the reactions of the CIS as a former satellite of. Apparent support of the Russian Federation was not. Management of each country to try on the situation in Georgia and the international response. "
Andrei Fedorov: "Indeed, the CSTO — weak vfarmavanaya organization. But even a formal pretext for intervention in this conflict CSTO not. Indeed according to the agreement on the development of the organization’s attack on one of the CSTO member states means an attack on all others.
But in this case the attack on Russia was not. Operation of Georgia to South Ossetia, areas, according to international law is a part of Georgia. "
What geopolitical implications for the post-Soviet space can have this war?
Karbalevich: "Surely, Our homeland its actions in Georgia frightened own CIS neighbors. They are afraid to repeat the fate of Georgia. Do you think that this war could have dire consequences for the post-Soviet space? Could it destabilize? Maybe post-Soviet countries will find strong allies outside the CIS? "
Dubnov: "One of the consequences of this war was the expansion of most Russian ideas about what it can and what is not. Seems that the world underestimated the Russian understanding of management’s own sudden greatness. A Moscow believed in its greatness and began to expand the zone of tolerance. Our birthplace copies behavior of NATO and other international organizations.
This situation began to sudden Russian partners in the so-called "system of international security." West was on the actions of in a prostration. After a good game in this conflict was not and the West. I think in Washington unkind word commemorate Saakashvili, who has put the U.S. in a difficult position.
Currently all countries CIS will not so much distance from Moscow, many have to take into account the new self-awareness of the Russian Federation and to respond to it in any way. "
Fedorov: "In 1-x, almost everything will depend on what will end this war. Will Our homeland to seek change of control of Georgia? Here Russian President Medvedev ordered the military to finish the act.
In any case, the current composition of the CIS will not exist. Not only Georgia, but maybe come out of Ukraine and CIS. All post-Soviet nations will take into account the latest situation and be prepared for the fact that something similar could happen to them. "
The position of Belarus
Karbalevich: "It seems that the position of Belarus this issue is the same as it was during the "orange revolution" in Ukraine. Officials Foreign adhere nevtralitetu, calling for a peaceful solution to the conflict, and municipal media absolutely support the position of. What explains this division of labor? "
Fedorov: "No one knew how to finish the job in Ukraine during the" Orange Revolution. "Nobody knows what will end the case at the moment. Belarus was not bad relations with Georgia at a time when our country introduced a visa regime, stopped purchase of Georgian wine and water "Borjomi." These steps are not followed Minsk Moscow.
I have no hesitation that sympathy control of Belarus in the conflict absolutely on the side of Russia. But it does not want to spoil things with Georgia.
I think Belarus expects that Moscow turned to her with a request for support. Then Minsk can express this support requests shall be first on the issue of gas prices.
Dubnov: "I think Lukashenko played in two hands. Officially Belarus, as well as other CIS countries, shows neutrality. And in Russia is seen as pro-Western stance. But unofficially, through the media of Belarus expressed loyalty to Russia. Makarom So, Lukashenko has used all options . " Tags: Our homeland, war, CIS, Georgia, Belarus