Not very high expectations about the presidency can Europe Barack Obama? Can be realized structural configuration in foreign policy of the United States? Can I change U.S. policy towards Russia? Does Washington consensus affairs of this country? Answer the questions of the Metropolitan Municipal Institute associate professor of international relations Kirill Koktysh and chief editor of "New Era" Lord Alexei.
Vitaly TsigankovTsigankov"Many currently notes that even during the election campaign in the U.S. Europe enveloped" abamamaniya. "European public hopes that Barack Obama will appease those troubles, which have been observed in recent years in relations between Europe and the United States. How true these rather highest expectations What Obama is able to do to bring mizhatlyantychnyya business to the next level? "
Lord"Usually every U.S. president should focus on the anticipation of its own voters, and not the world. Especially at the moment when it is difficult to face the hurt South American society and that Obama promised to solve. First is the cash crisis and the withdrawal of troops from Iraq. This is value.
Another thing is that the new president will be obliged to pay attention to Europe. But it seems to me that in this area of structural change is expected. The U.S. position is defined in the framework of the Euro-Atlantic alliance, but with certain accents on their own interests and characteristics.
One of these features — the attitude to Russia. On the one hand, there is more or less normal and friendly business, on the other — the desire not to let Our homeland has taken the place of the USSR in the geopolitical balance of power.
Tsigankov"Iraq and perhaps Iran — are precisely the issues that divide the United States and much of Europe. If now Barack Obama begins to withdraw troops from Iraq means — can take a new" honeymoon "in relations between the U.S. and the European Union?"
Lord AlexeiLord"In 1-x, it is very difficult to unscrew the car back and start to withdraw troops. It is necessary to solve not only the President, and the Congress. So the second this dilemma can not be solved.
In-2, at the moment, Obama must first answer the wishes of American voters about solving internal problems. His convincing victory — a response to the expectations of the Yankees, so braked crisis. "
Tsigankov"What abilities corridor has Barack Obama in the European direction? How he unleashed hands here?"
Koktyish"We can say that the" honeymoon "Obama and Europe has already begun. Barack Obama came under the motto updates and innovations, and it means quite significant changes in the internal and external structures of the United States.
Obama himself for international affairs — until something new, he was not engaged in them practically. But, as you can tell, he has enough prof advisers who are well aware and Europe, and Russia, and from the number of those concepts that are significantly different from that from which proceeded George Bush. I believe that U.S. policy will be much tsverazeyshaya. "
Tsigankov"Analysts usually they say about the continuity of foreign policy the United States, but if you look at Washington’s foreign policy, for example, the Reagan, Clinton and Bush, it can be observed quite severe differences. How Obama can come to Iraq and other international problems?"
Kirill KoktyshKoktyish"South American troops from Iraq will be withdrawn, perhaps even in the first term of the Obama presidency.
But at the moment in international relations will be addressed first subsequent prepyadstviya: U.S. under Obama usvoyut that adnapalyarnastsi time passed and America should share opportunities. This means that there will be UN reform and transformation of the structure in a more substantial company. This will be the reform of other institutions of international relations. Obama will be the president, in which can be fixed tight little different order of the world.
Of course, the issues of Iraq and Afghanistan will be substantial, but they are secondary. With a brand new U.S. approach responsibility for these issues, I think, more readily accept and Europe. "
Tsigankov"I would argue here. Seems Europe is unwilling to pay excessive defense spending. They relish live in their own well-being, social society, and Washington give guarantees of their own strategic defenses. America has such huge defense spending to the same as Europe unwilling to take on such a burden is not it? "
Koktyish"Not just because. In addition, because Europe buys equipment and instrument of American production. By purchasing it, Europe subsidizes South American industry. If there is a delineation of powers between the U.S., Europe, Russia, China, India, it will be a little different design world and a different approach to solving problems.
Indeed, Obama could become the emblem of changes that will have a global character. These changes one way or another would have occurred, but they happened to McCain through evil system, if after a while it became clear to the United States can not keep control of everything and it would be precipitous nature. If Obama will have some understanding of the necessity of international collegial approach, then we will have a stronger output design world. "
Tsigankov"What can not wait Our homeland of the new U.S. president? Maybe if McCain Russian political establishment would have been easy enough:" The United States — the enemy, everything is clear, cool war lasts recent years. "Maybe under Obama both sides will have to find what something new approaches. Which line may be changes in this area? "
Lord"First I will say that the divorce between the U.S. and Europe is not feasible. At the time when the Soviet Union went to the contact with the West Gorbachev as the time it was defined, and economic considerations. Then Soviet oil has been taking Europe as a condition caused America. And Europe has chosen the U.S. rather than the USSR.
So things are the U.S. and Russia will be built, likely on economic pragmatism — this time. And second — the United States will seek to do so that the world is not rolled back to the confrontation in the bipolar world where Our homeland tends to take the place of the USSR. "
Koktyish"In the short run no major configurations in relations between Moscow and Washington is not going to happen. Maintain a competitive between Russia and the U.S. for Europe. Competitiveness will be that whose petrol whose fuel will be poured into the tank of the European industry. Or Russian fuel will be poured into the Chinese benzabak industry?
Because the case United States and Russia can not radically improve or get worse, then there is strong competition and interdep
endence immediately. Naturally, for the Russian political class Obama — "hard" option, which is necessary to crack. After McCain — it would be cool perazhovvanne schemes times of war. Fortunately, this has not happened. "
Tags: elections, states