Conflict between Russia and Georgia attracted wide international resonance. Has the birthplace of our diplomatic defeat? What changes in international politics can lead this war? Can we expect a worsening of Russia’s relations with its neighbors?
Participants: Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS countries Vladimir Zharihin from Moscow and editor of the analytical bulletin "Belarusian Week" Alexander Klaskouski from Minsk.
Our homeland was either in international isolation?
Valery Karbalevich"It seems that the military phase of the Russian-Georgian conflict came to an end. Military outcome can already fail. But diplomatic results, international implications not yet obvious and will only be felt over time.
But at this point we can conclude that the international implications are significant. This war can be a prerequisite for change in international relations.
As already at the moment of course, Our homeland was in international isolation, without allies. Can we consider this war as diplomatic defeat in Moscow? "
Vladimir Zharihin"Whenever any war ends, experts, journalists, they say that now international affairs radically swap. So it was after the war in Yugoslavia, and after the war in Iraq. Later it turns out that they do not change radically. I and presently occur "perahlest" assessments. Soon everyone in a certain sense to calm down.
Regarding Tipo Russian isolation, then here it is appropriate to recall the well-known saying that the glass is half empty can be regarded as either half full. It’s like look. So, Russia is practically no support. But, on the other hand, Russia and no one condemned, not including the United States and England.
In general, it is difficult to recall an example, if someone in the world welcomed the military action of any country. Our homeland began military actions in a situation where nothing else and it does not remain. For Moscow, it was bezvaryyantnaya situation. Our homeland and came out of it with honor.
But, obviously, our homeland out of the war with some losses. Mean not only the loss of people, but the loss and diplomatically, and in terms of image. "
Klaskouski: "The media is dominated by the condemnation of the Russian Federation …"
Alexander Klaskouski"Indeed, not many who condemned Russia, and Russia supported only Cuba. This in itself is soft-spoken. And later, not necessarily to throw some Kremlin demarche notes.
But if you look at the media coverage, there is dominated by the conviction of. It is concluded that our homeland again showed itself an empire. The question about the presence of in the upcoming "Big Eight." Certainly, some conclusions do yourself favorites CIS.
You can not read enough, but many do. That Poland long traded with the U.S. on the issue of placing on the Polish countryside parts of the American defense system. But after the recent events in the Caucasus Warsaw gave its consent. I think that will make the appropriate conclusions and in other capitals. "
The new status of the Russian Federation?
Karbalevich"From the history it is clear that division of the world never happens peaceful method. And the new status of the country often becomes a result of force. Maybe we are witnessing the appearance of modern role of. She claims to be a majestic power. And not surprisingly, it caused a shock in other countries — rivals. You may recall that the United States acts and power caused discontent in the world. "
Zharihin"Do not quite agree with the employee with respect to the reaction of the global media. So, if you look at the U.S. and British media, the picture looks the same as shown, the Klaskouski. But we can not assume that the U.S. and England — the whole world. Position of the German media, Spain and other countries are not so concrete, it is different.
I do not like such a cool analysis of the consequences of war: who won, who lost. In fact, Russia was just need to protect the thousands of people. You can not deduce moral issues beyond the boundaries of international relations.
I wish to note that during these events Sarkozy, the French President, the Presidency of the European Union, has shown himself as a favorite of the united Europe. After all, the European Union should have an impact on stability in the wider Europe, which includes and our motherland, and Georgia. "
Karbalevich"If you look at this situation from the perspective of justice and, by the way, international law, Georgia in South Ossetia tried to do exactly the same thing that made our homeland in Chechnya."
Zharihin"On the territory of South Ossetia was attended by foreign peacekeepers, the existence of which has agreed to Georgia. She signed a corresponding contract. And during a military operation Georgia attacked not only on asetyn, and peacekeepers. Peacekeepers And in Chechnya was not."
Klaskouski"While saying that nazhila Our homeland for themselves a lot of pain in my head. Curiously, Russian analysts interpret the action only after the Georgian attack on South Ossetia. But they try to cut those actions and incidents that preceded it. And in an explosive political situation there is a fault in the region and Russia.
And the cool analysis of natural here, since the question arises: what happens next? Uluchenne Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the Russian Federation is very unsafe. The recognition of these republics are independent states may also have diverse effects.
Our homeland becomes whether a global power? It remains energy empire. If tomorrow prices fall in oil and gas, will complete zero. By the way, energy interests, above all else, are behind the Caucasian war.
Of course, the tragedy of the Russian Federation is not threatened. It is against the small West Belarus imposes sanctions, holding her in isolation. And it does not threaten the Russian Federation. West is interested in Russian energy resources. Yesterday I heard a fascinating phrase that perfectly characterizes the situation: "Our homeland risen from its knees and sat in the tank."
Zharihin"Always you discuss acts of. And the actions of Georgia — not a word, as if it does not exist. But she started the war, bombed the whole city."
Specific effects of war
Karbalevich"Can the war affect the fate of the CIS, NATO expansion to the east?"
Zharihin"Frisky than control of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO is running, run unreal. They say that Georgia and Ukraine do not take into NATO because Europe does not wish to quarrel with Russia. Essentially, Russia’s position here is used only for the view. Indeed, Germany and France are now trying to redistribute forces in NATO. And that’s why these countries do not want the entry of Georgia and Ukraine there. After that Georgia did, or will exchange position radically Germany and France in the direction of the accelerated adoption of its NATO? I think faster opposite. "
Klaskouski"Certain consequences we are already looking. Poland has a South American antirockets. Ukrainian elite only strengthened in their own Euro-Atlantic elections.
I think the silence within the CIS is also very soft-spoken. Since Followers other Commonwealth states figured on this situation. Each also has its problems. Ukraine has a problem of Sevastopol, Crimea, Kazakhstan — many Russian regions. "
Zharihin"I hope they are not going to shoot a volley fire systems for its citizens. A means nothing threatens them."
Klaskouski"The dangers in the world today are more diverse. Think such hazards management feels Belarus. Lukash
enko gave no accident yesterday instructed the minister of foreign affairs to do better things with the European Union and the United States. As a result may occur frisky burial fabulous project allied countries. Obviously, the current management of Belarus does not go to NATO. But I think it will be more to distance themselves from the Russian Federation. " Tags: Our homeland, European Union, USA, Ukraine, war, georgia, NATO