What consequences newcomer Caucasian war will have on other neighbors of Russia — Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus?
On these topics in the program "Prague accent" Russian political analyst argue slutszhby our radio Ira Lagunina and political analyst and journalist Alexander Fyaduta.
Drakakhrust"What are the goals in front of him posing Our homeland, continuing combat actions in Georgia, when Georgian troops have already left the midday Ossetia? Our homeland wishes quite separate midday Ossetia from Georgia wants to join her for herself, she wants to occupy Georgia, she wishes to be removed from Misha Saakashvili government, what clearly hinted Russian salting the UN Security Council? Ira Lagunina that your answer? "
Lagunina"I think that the military operation segodnyaschy of — this is essentially a continuation of politics pressure that Our homeland is a couple of years. This is just the continuation of military means, as previously Our homeland tried various means to click on Georgia, first push economically and politically press On the international arena, to revive the current government with a view to remove Misha Saakashvili from power. Indeed, if earlier economic pressure and the blockade, which was organized by Our homeland against Georgia were not so obviously directed against Saakashvili’s personality, then for today, the military phase of this operations, it became clear that the Georgian president is simply unacceptable for Russia. And it was actually said during the open meeting of the Security Council. "
Drakakhrust"Alexander Fyaduta if the goals of the Russian Federation, such as Ira said, does this mean that Moscow will not stop until such time as these will not be achieved until Saakashvili leaves the presidency?"
Fyaduta"If we consider the main goal of Russia in this conflict as the dismissal of Misha Saakashvili from power, I believe that they already have gained their own goals, as it is clear that the control of the country that lost the war, it is still at some point leaves, and goes pretty fast. What we beheld the example of Slobodan Milosevic.
But then there is still one additional caveat. If we consider this conflict as an attempt to increment its RF area by unity 2-Ossetia, then this goal (if it really exists), embody Our homeland fails. Since in this particular case, if the anger against Georgia was not intended to enforce peace, and was particularly aggressive nature of the war, the international community, in my opinion, really try to organize some pressure already on Russia itself. I think that this Our homeland is not very willing. "
Drakakhrust"Ira, do you agree with Alexander that Saakashvili has already doomed to care, as he lost the war? History, it seems to me, does not confirm such eyes. In 1973, Egypt had lost the war, but Sadat further consolidated his power. A Hussain lost in Kuwait in 1991, rules 12 years and was overthrown only modern military organization. "
Lagunina"I would have all the same did not draw parallels between Sadat and Hussein Saakashvili. Saakashvili — a democratically elected favorite. And this could be his strength and his weakness. Weakness is that if at the moment by the Georgians for yourself will assume that reproduced the territory of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, then, of course, his support will weaken. Either they will incriminate him that he provoked the conflict, then weaken his support as well, and he can play at the next election, may even be special elections regardless of how the political situation will develop inside Georgia.
On the other hand, may well be the reverse reaction of the population. Citizens already have seen fully what may exhibit Our homeland and can be much more than before. And before there was a big support to the external course Saakashvili: 73% of the Georgian population surveyed in the referendum process, supported by the country’s eagerness to join NATO. So now he can get more support. So I would not put all the same political situation in Georgia’s dependence on what makes our homeland. "
Drakakhrust"I wish to note that at the moment we look first case in post-Soviet history, when our country their permanent parts, so to speak, with banners unfurled, fighting on foreign soil. But here hard to get rid of analogies: Chechnya, Yugoslavia 1999 Goda Iraq of 2003 … And there are, so to speak, "children’s questions." If Russian in Chechnya can, why Georgia in South Ossetia can not? And on the other hand, if the United States in Yugoslavia and Iraq can why can not the Russian Federation in Georgia? Alexander, you have the answers? Or simply there is no similarity, and so can not talk in general? "
Fyaduta"To think so, in my opinion, it is possible. But we need to go, in my opinion, the fact that anyone who says so, himself, is to elect a certain logical or legal position of the principles of what is more important to you. This is the principle of the indivisibility your country and the country in general or the principle of the right of every people to self-determination of each civilization? If civilization right to self-determination is more important to you means you have to recognize Kosovo’s right to self-determination, the right of South Ossetia, Transnistria same rights. can talk about the aspects. But this is an issue that remains a question.
If you say for himself, which is more important is the right of the country on the indivisibility of its territory, then you must admit that what makes Saakashvili in South Ossetia, what he tried to do and what to do tried Slobodan Milosevic in Kosovo and what to do at first tried to Boris Yeltsin and then Vladimir Putin in Chechnya — all rights.
We can talk about the aspects of what ways these policies try to achieve their own goals. But the basic principle is that of: the head of the country must protect its integrity. And here is the question. And this approach, in my opinion, should take advantage of the world and society as unrealistic talk about the fact that what makes our homeland in Georgia is very different from what society tries to make the Atlantic in Yugoslavia. "
Drakakhrust"Ira, do you agree with Alexander? What is your response to my" children’s questions? "The British have a saying:" The devil is in the details. "Maybe, in this case in detail, the differences — not only the devil, and the essence? "
Lagunina"I agree that it is necessary to elect a principle. But I would not now talk about the principle of self-determination or the civilization of the inviolability of the sovereignty of the country. Civilization principle of self-determination to the current actions of the Russian Federation has no case. Our homeland does not protect nor Abkhazia nor Ossetia in this case. Our
homeland bombed radar installations in the suburbs of Tbilisi, bombed military bases on the territory of Georgia, gets to the settlements, as the story of the Blaze last weekend. It has no relation to the two separatist regions in Georgia. This relates only to the Russian policy towards Georgia.
Still, if still talk about the details, let’s really compare. Iraq. All the same, no matter what, regardless of the position of Russia dramatically wrong, despite the fact that France at the last moment abruptly changed its policy in relation to the military operation in Iraq, the United States could make the coalition forces. Do not lead the U.S. war in Iraq, there are about 80 of the war, as I remember, at least began to wage war. And it’s quite a lot. This means that in principle, it was approved by the international community.
Kosovo in 1999. In 1-x, not the United States and NATO. This regional block which secures first in Europe. And it was an international solution. Moreover, in Kosovo in 1999, learned the policy of ethnic cleansing 2 million Albanians. This outrage was necessary to suspend. And this chaos braked, including through the NATO operation.
Neither Ossetia or Abkhazia of ethnic cleansing in the near future nobody spent. Moreover, if you look at the history of the conflict in Abkhazia, there was ethnically cleansing the contrary — a small civilization expelled from its territory Georgians who were her most. The same thing happened in practice, and in South Ossetia, but evenly, and not during the conflict. So I would not in this case a policy associate of Milosevic and Saakashvili. "
Drakakhrust"Alexander, you are assured arguments Ira?"
Fyaduta"You know, I do not feel special on the Caucasus, because I’m very hard read what happened there. But, as I understand it, what is happening there now, with all the distinction of which said Ira, has one thing in common with what happened in the Balkans. As I recall, the UN Security Council did not take a decision on military action in Yugoslavia, and it was exactly the solution of one international organization, the opportunities which, incidentally, that Yugoslavia did not recognize, a force that holds the key to peace of mind in the region. You can read anything — about skinny targets of genocide, about how bad was Milosevic — and it will all be right. But still there was a fact of anger, in my opinion.
The same thing happens at the moment and Russia. And the fact that sovereign states Churkin at a meeting of the UN Security Council does not look very impressive for sure. But I think that is not so impressive and looked everything that made NATO forces in Yugoslavia. As if read that now Our homeland bombed foreign country, sorry. What does NATO aircraft in the Balkans? Them! The purpose of a view, but there, too, died peaceful inhabitants. "
Drakakhrust"What was and what will be the reaction to the impending conflict between the West: United States, Europe, NATO? Formally speaking, they have no legal obligations to Georgia. But it seems that in 1991, when Hussein invaded Kuwait, Kuwait to the West also had no formal duties, but went to war for his release. Now, with respect to Georgia, go and what goes? By the way, even if Georgia had been a member of NATO, if the West went on a war with Russia? Ira what do you think? "
Lagunina"Generally, in NATO’s history was only one moment when NATO used so called fifth paragraph ruling own organization. This section says that the government has the right to collective defense and collective defense obligation on members of the organization. And how amazing this only case in which was used the fifth paragraph, concerns not a military operation, and patrol the Bosphorus, which is held together NATO member states. Nevermore collective defense did not apply.
Of course, I do not think that in this case, any military action would be organized excited by the rest of the international community. In addition, before the military action there is always an opportunity to apply economic measures and policies. In this case, as you know, a hundred percent yet did not use political measures pressure. And we generally to economic still no closer. So talk about the military action is still too early. "
Drakakhrust"Ira, and yet the West will do at least some harsh steps to prevent total catastrophe of war in Georgia?"
Lagunina"Well, I think the pressure will increase, and now quite a good deal since we beheld the dynamics of the last days. It began with a very safe applications of surface applications, and now it comes to a rather harsh statements against Russia. Naturally, it is difficult will do something in the UN Security Council, where the Russian Federation has the right to veto. Yet, I believe that the international condemnation through the UN Security Council all the same will be extended. And I think there are a huge number of abilities and click on Russia Russian control do stay in power very awkward.
There are, for example, a ban on tourism activities, there is a ban on flights of control. There are an unlimited number of small leverage, which could be much more effective than any military action. If it read, if read about them. And basically, you know, if we have a look at the history of Georgia next time, remember the Russian flights over the territory of Georgia, when our country is clarified that, in her words, "there are Chechen rebels," and because she prefers to base Chechen bombard on the ground in Georgia. When Shevardnadze could not get it to stop.
Under Saakashvili succeeded very rapidly eliminate Russian flights. Very swiftly to suspend. The fact that the Georgian troops were transferred to the South American instructors who themselves led operation against possible terrorist camps in the area of Georgia with the Chechen countryside. And Russian flying swiftly over. It is one thing when the case will die Georgian soldier during the bombing, and another thing, when the die or even South American military instructor. And the situation around Pankiskkay Gorges very rapidly calmed down. "
Drakakhrust"Alexander, there are two questions. Will the West to use a wide range of pressure on Russia? And on the other hand, these steps will make the memory on Russia? Either she, as they say, "biting at the bit" and decided that if we got the sword, we will not lower it until you win, then we would not be worth it? "
Fyaduta"I think that the Kremlin must think of something. People who work there have to consider the situation. But I think they take into account the fact that pressure from the international community will continue to grow. Taking into account the fact that military aid to Georgia will not be provided, but that will be some measures taken, including the question may arise about the stay of the Russian Federation in the "small world politburo" (I mean "eight"), that this question can stand up and specifically Currently.
I think that our homeland will continue its pressure on Georgia — now she had no choice, as patrons, trustees selected only in this case, if they are strong. And if Our homeland now depart and pass the South Ossetia or Abkhazia, then, of course, wi
ll continue to a certain chain reaction throughout the Caucasus. Caucasus begins to spin out patronage of.
That’s the question that led, in my opinion, Russia to go to achieve the goal that puts it ahead of myself. And I think that the Russian Federation has control advisers suggested a certain limit beyond which our homeland will be able to withdraw from the current military success, if it can be generally regarded as success in negotiations with the West. "
Drakakhrust"Alexander, do you think, what will be the consequences for the war other neighbors of Russia? I emphasize the first time in post-Soviet history Our homeland openly entered the ball to another area of the country. And not whether this situation has radically changed the psychology of the Kremlin? Earlier discussion that our Crimea, our northern Kazakhstan, Belarus in general our whole were still rhetoric. But this rhetoric can not be a real policy, when the blade is in the hands with the blood of victory? Or can not change Russian policy in respect of all the neighbors? "
Fyaduta"It will change. It certainly will change in this case, since the success of power — this is what provokes a certain mindset among the country’s elite, who once defeated with a gun in his hands. A desire to overcome, and the second and third times . I think that at the moment is intensyfikavany process of Ukraine’s entry into the North Atlantic community. This will certainly. Our homeland in here have nothing to do fails. "
Drakakhrust"Alexander, and Georgia?"
Fyaduta"And Georgia — I do not know, in fact. What remains after the occupation of Georgia almost half of its territory or slightly less than the Russian troops — this one will not take into NATO. Well, maybe I’m wrong. And certainly perceive Ukraine . Kazakhstan, in my opinion, will strengthen consular Western companies in its territory. And it will be quite a strong factor for the protection of the sovereignty of Kazakhstan. And the West is perceived as more effective steps. A Belarusian management should clap and thank Saakashvili and sovereign and sovereign Putin not Medvedev and Putin in particular, for what happened. Since at the moment the West not to him, but he was in front of the Russian Federation is very, very necessary. "
Drakakhrust"Ira, and any answers to your questions? How to change the policy of Moscow, as they say, relatively near abroad, as this will change the policy of the countries?"
Lagunina"In fact, I agree with Alexander that it will give birth to a greater appetite and maybe play more zeal. Not in an effort to use military force — I do not think that our homeland somewhere else can use military force, not counting maybe Crimea — and more in an effort to fill any contradictions, bureaucracy, public thoughts on disagreement.
That Ukraine. Well, maybe this trend to accelerate Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the zeal of the country to the European Union. But, on the other hand, public opinion in Ukraine split. And no one bothers to RF after cope with Georgia, more public play this idea. Including using the Crimea. On the other hand, I also agree with Alexander, I see no other reaction inside the CIS, not counting the centrifugal. "
Drakakhrust"Ira, Alexander said that Alexander Lukashenko can get some dividends from this war. Allegedly, as the only true ally of Russia. But it seems that there will be the short-term gain. And what about longer terms … Lukashenko during the" gas wars "behaved with Russia, speak out so is risky. Would not that after the war, after the August 2008 behaves in relation to the Russian Federation, even in economic matters because behaved Lukashenko earlier, will be even more unsafe?"
Lagunina"It will be not only more insecure, and will more difficult, as there is for you showed what the Kremlin is ready. And the Kremlin is ready for anything. Turned out that the Kremlin is prepared fully to all, including the bombing of cities.
Naturally behave because previously behaved Lukashenko, he no longer could. But I do not think that will be made against Belarus any military operation. No, this is not necessary. Pretty quite turn off gas, then the expression Lukashenko, "I’m sitting on the tube," turnover totally against him. "Tags: Our homeland, Lukashenko, Fyaduta, Ukraine, Ossetia, Lagunina, Georgia, Abkhazia, NATO