Recent activities have shown the dependence of the Kremlin Lukashenko

Talk about these issues, our columnists and Vitaly Tsigankov Valery Karbalevich.
Tsigankov"August was notable for Belarus a number of events and phenomena. Prisoners were released last political prisoners in the Beijing Olympics Belarusian team also achieved the best performances in the history of independent results. And in the harvest, according to official figures, assembled the most highest in the history of Belarus collecting bread — the final figure may be closer to 9 million tons.
Let’s start with the freshest topic — performances of Belarusian athletes at the Beijing Olympics. The Belarusian collection 19 medals, four of them gold — this is the best performance at the Olympics in the history-independent Belarus. Valery, who benefit so successful performance — Belarusian patriotism or the current government? "
"Regardless of the political system of their own people are proud of the victories of athletes"

Karbalevich"These reasons are hard to divide, although we can say that sporting success — the result of development of Belarusian civilization.
The main burden of supporting the sport falls on the state budget and municipal organizations. In other countries, the role of large private capital in the field of sports. In Belarus, the personal capital is still poorly in this area. And when due to rising Russian energy begin economic difficulty, it is very banging on state support for the sport. For example, the same ice rinks very energy intensive facilities. And with the growth of energy prices are unlikely to become self-sustaining.
In the end, as in at least some non-democratic country sport has become an element of ideology, propaganda success is not so much of civilization, as the current regime. Municipal media report that another Olympic medal fundamentally alone for himself, as a consequence of the correctness of state policy. "
Tsigankov"Beijing can not be regarded as the result of a particular success. In a sense, just lucky because the last Olympics had 10 fourth place and 15 medals. Currently 19 medals, so the difference is not very large. On the other hand, it is above than expected. For example, the Olympics bukmekery perceived equal bets on whether Belarus will receive 14 medals. What really amuses fans — that all the favorites — are young people, students already Belarusian sports school, and not Russian heritage.
But we can say that winning in some sports, for example, in the same veslavanni kayaking, acquired not because of, but in spite of the state. Because most of the money goes to football and hockey, and many species that bring Olympic medals, abandoned state attention and keep on entuziyazme. After all, whatever the political regime, there will always be people who zahochut sports, win and set records.
Olympics — it is a time when people everywhere are beginning to worry about their own, and regardless of the political system are proud victories own athletes. This increases the national identity, national pride. For example, at the World Championships or European football, where the Belarusian team does not have, and maybe even for a long time will not — there was ill for Belarusians strangers teams, many of them in Russia. A Belarusian athletes at the Olympics there, and from time to time they are winning, and because most of the Belarusian fans worry about their own, and this, of course, a positive thing for the public consciousness and identity. "
"The biggest yields lower earnings"
Tsigankov"Second topic of the month — it’s a victory in the fields, a record grain harvest …"
Karbalevich"The problem is that in Belarus, in at least some non-market economy, there are many who are interested in the cost of crop progress. Ground creating almost a hundred percent unfavorable and lives on municipal subsidies.
Tsigankov"Valery, but donations are in all European countries. Does it really matter what color the cat, if it still catches mice? Or does not matter, as the successes achieved when agriculture produces record harvests?"
Karbalevich"But there is a difference. Shred the budget that goes to support agriculture, substantially higher than in other countries. Moreover, its just hard to figure out. Here not only wash municipal subsidies, and indirect. Here, for example, potash fertilizers for farms "Belaruskali" unprofitable. programm and stately building of agro-towns — a "dark hole" of the Belarusian budget.
In addition, the government in the West Property subsydirue effective and ineffective owners bankrupt, sell their land more effectively. In Belarus in agriculture no bankruptcies, government helps all kolkhoz. In the end it turns out that exporting meat and dairy products, Belarus subsydirue zabugornogo consumer. "
Tsigankov"It is impossible not to recall what specifically in agriculture in Belarus the lowest wages in the midst of all other industries. Even the official statistics for the June-July, it was 491 thousand — almost twice less than the national average. So the words Alexander Lukashenko on the milkmaids who earn 800 dollars per month, are some legends and izymatelstvam with village workers. "
What can Lukashenko "implement" the West?
Tsigankov"Release of political prisoners — whose victory it can get?"
Karbalevich"It is unclear how the release of political prisoners affects political processes. Nomenclature very astute to even how signals from above. Maybe bureaucrats in the field read this signal in the sense that Lukashenko is not such a strong, because the repression against opponents should be treated more cautiously, because the situation may change.
We have witnessed, in the winter trying to implement such an exchange: the release of political prisoners, to improve relations with the West — failed. As a result, in March began the conflict with the U.S., which was accompanied by a new round of repression. There are new political prisoners.
If the elections are deemed undemocratic, the West will not make concessions, and our homeland nekordinalno raise gas prices, the country can again begin political cooling may seem new political prisoners. "

Tsigankov"Belarusian history in recent years — is, unfortunately, really alternation of 2-periods, which skillfully controlled from above — alternating thaws with cooling. If now is a sense of euphoria about the release of political prisoners, it is worth recalling that in the political system there is nothing not changed.
On the other hand, the West is not currently can not see this step Belarusian control, can not respond to it. Maybe Lukashenko can repeat a favorite way of Libyan Muammar Gaddafi, who made certain concessions to the West (renounced support for terrorism), but retained the political system intact. And this step sought understanding from the West, Libyan favorite was forgiven much, but again — no way he loosened his autocratic power. "
Karbalevich"But I wish to make an objection … Failure to support international terrorism — that the West was very fundamentally, and this product is a good value for Gaddafi" sold "the West. Favorite North Korean Kim Jong Il has sold its own failure to create an atomic bomb. What Lukashenko "implement" the West? "
Tsigankov"For example, at the moment there are discussions (read about it Surikov Russian salting), which may be setting on the terrain of Belarus missiles" Iskander "or strategic bombers. Here’s what you can implement the West, saying that if you lend me your shoulder, help — I would not have it in our area. "
Karbalevich"But the problem is
that such a" product "Lukashenko implements and Russia. One and the" implement "to two buyers who are interested in the reverse order, unreal. Indeed, selling one, you cause the aggravation of relations with the other party."
"It was a public humiliation Belarusian favorite"
Tsigankov"The last topic of our conversation — Lukashenko talks in Sochi."
Karbalevich"Lukashenko decided that the Caucasian war suddenly gave him into the hands of a new tool, a new product for bargaining with Russia. Belarusian I mean support the Russian position. Earlier, during the past international crises, such support has a gun, a gun was produced as a subsidy for Belarus due to a cheap energy resources, at the moment the situation has changed. Lukashenko realized that such support can be traded profitably implement.
Because such a position of weird Belarusian government. Week and a half since the war began a sudden silence that has changed even after shouting Russian ambassador. But during a meeting with Medvedev Lukashenko made such a somersault and so suddenly spoke praises Russia that was all embarrassed. "
Tsigankov"Watching the political style of Lukashenko 15 years, we have learned, it seems, to distinguish when and how he says that is called from the heart, and when through the teeth. Fact that he had read about the" wise and beautiful "- it was at least through the teeth. If you do not state that it was hidden irony.
But Russian media power, no TV drama did not see — did not want to see. Fully demonstrated the serious stories about how Lukashenko heartily and faithfully support Russia.
Recent activities around Caucasian war showed how still dependent on the Kremlin, Alexander Lukashenko. It is not only his support for Moscow’s actions, but such unnecessary step as a meeting with the favorites of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The meeting, of course, was not planned, and of course, exactly what Russian control led Lukashenko to this meeting. And this was a public humiliation Belarusian favorite demonstration him the place that he should occupy in the geopolitical situation. "
Karbalevich"Plus agreement with Belarus to make Russia a unified air defense system. In other words, if the decision is implemented, the air defense command Belarus is a Russian general. This loss of the country’s sovereignty. And what in return? Publicly Russian side has promised nothing . Because this round went to the Russian side, but bargaining lasts. "Tags: Tsygankov Karbalevich

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