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Map of NASA, the satellite surveillance of Americans the dynamics of plowing the land in 2004-2009.
Yellow marked "long-term arable land", brown — the territories are experiencing drought on record.
Expansion of arable land in the world stopped, and population growth continues. The most severely food shortages in the coming years will be felt in China — there is a person on account of all on 0.08 hectares of arable land. The only major reserve land is preserved only in Russia.
The largest area of arable land in the world are in the U.S. — 179 million hectares. Next are India (170 million hectares), China (135 million hectares) and Russia (130 million hectares). Not surprisingly, the leader in the collection of grains and legumes are the USA — 500-550 million tons per year (of which 300-350 million are corn, wheat — up to 70 million tons, the rest — barley, oats, soybeans, etc. ) It allows America to export up to 100 million tons of grain annually.
However, a more correct to take into account not only the area of arable land, but also how much arable land accounts for 1 person in a particular country, as well as the yield of grain per capita. The worst performance in the world of security arable land — from China and Japan: of 0.08 and 0.03 hectares per person (or more familiar to Russians measure — 8 and 3 weave, respectively). This is about 10-20 times smaller than in developed countries.
Meanwhile, China is rapidly losing ground, and the few that he has.
So, in the world there were two large hearth eroding soils. First — in the north-west of China, the second — in Central Africa. Satellite images show the constant emergence of dust storms in these areas. This has already led to the fact that in North China in recent years has been abandoned 24,000 villages and millions of hectares of former pastures have turned to desert.
Another trend in China — the conversion of arable land for non-agricultural purposes. For example, in China over the past 10 years, the city seized about 800,000 hectares of former arable land, about 100,000 acres were in industrial plants, warehouses and distribution centers.
In 2011, new car sales in China are projected to reach 20 million units — a record for any country. For every 5,000,000 new cars should fall 1 million hectares of land — under roads, parking lots, gas stations, technical centers, etc.
In general, the world has exhausted almost all the reserves to build agricultural production. Stopped even extensive development of agriculture: for example, from 1995 to 2005 the world's population has increased by 14%, and arable land — only 0.4%.
In the last decade we have witnessed the emergence of yet another limitation on the increase in global agricultural production: in most countries reached the limit of yield growth. Thus, the yield of rice in Japan since 2005, and remains at the same level — about 52 tons per hectare. The situation is similar to the yield of wheat in Europe — its main producers. In France, this cereal yield stood at the level of 70-72 quintals per hectare, and in Germany it did drop slightly (2-3% per year, up to 68 quintals).
In the developed countries in the last 5-7 years has also made a "ceiling" on the milk yield, the speed gain of pigs, chickens for egg production. All it means is that Europe, North America, Japan and Australia will no longer be able to rapidly increase agricultural production — in the best case, it will stabilize at current levels.
The potential yield growth is in developing countries. But there it is limited or lack of water, or the rising cost of fertilizers and plant protection products (2 times in the last 5 years).
In the world there is only one state that can relatively quickly ramp up agricultural production — is Russia.
We also have an extensive reserve — the years of reform in Russia was abandoned 41 million hectares of planted area. If the land put into circulation and gather from them the average yield (about 2 tons per hectare), the grain yield can be increased by 80 million tons.
Also, 40 million hectares of arable land for 20 years, did not get a single gram of fertilizer. That is, at their normal feeding potentially from these lands can increase the yield of 0.5-0.7 tonnes per hectare. And that's 20-28 million tons of grain.
Thus, under normal agricultural policy can potentially increase the Russian grain harvest from the current 80-95 million tons to 180 or even 200 million tons. And it is 1.4 tons of grain per person — quite a U.S. level. Russia then export opportunities will increase from the current 18-25 million tonnes to 50-60 million tonnes. And this despite the fact that tens of millions of tons of grain will go even further in poultry and livestock.
Source — http://dgz.livejournal.com/3467107.html