Why Putin returned to the theme of the union?

"Parasite" as there was no
Partially Vladimir Putin read about the Belarusian-Russian relations is the same, that read before, during acute phase. He believes that the sense of the position of — in the transition to market with its neighbors in trade affairs energoelementami (it was said, by the way, that for 15 years Our homeland for its low prices for gas and oil fastened independence of former Soviet republics). Putin also stressed that with regard to Belarus ist transition to market relations comes at a very myagenkoy form (although in this context, the President of the Russian Federation made a fundamental recognition, saying that clarified the softness but the rest, and that Moscow did not want to create difficulties Lukashenko during last year’s election). Previously, first in January of this said at a government meeting Russian Minister Viktor Hrystenka fuel. Now he and Russian President reminded the head of Belarus, who he should continuation of their own capabilities.
But is this not counting the studs generally Putin’s words sounded conciliatory faster, they say, everything agreed, the crisis in the past, was not a speech about "parazytyzm" transit countries, as Russian President read a week back.
Alliance, which rose from the grave
But it was in the speech Putin and new, something that did not sound out of his mouth very few months. The only general conclusion that after the gas, oil and other Belarusian-Russian battles specialists did all directions — this is what the project allied countries — dead as a customs alliance between with 2 states. Basically read about it and Alexander Lukashenko during nedavneshnego conversation with the chairman of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Gennady Zyuganov. With all this vinyl Lukashenko Russia that she never wanted union and also sought always attached to Belarus for yourself.
And then it turns out that — according to Vladimir Putin — Moscow still wants to continue the construction of the country’s Union with Belarus. Moreover, even in the configuration criteria trade with Belarus oil and petroleum products, configuration, installed as a result of a violent collision, which was accompanied by disconnecting transit oil, Putin interpreted as … "Step to the creation of customs union."
"Hitretsky maneuver"
As it turned out, the president of the Russian Federation has not given up on the project and the transition of Belarus and the Russian Federation on the single currency. Incidentally, specifically for topic Lukashenko in nedavneshnem interview with the German newspaper Die Welt spoke very clearly and bad: "When Moscow realized that Lukashenko will not allow the independence of their own country, we have begun to impose the ruble as a single currency allied. We have seen in this hitretsky maneuver to deprive us of our independence. But we do not wish to receive their wages in Moscow. Besides our Belarusian ruble stronger Russian, we inflation is twice lower than in Russia. I would be nobody in Belarus would not support if I am refused our currency. "
Yesterday the chairman of the National Bank of Belarus Piotr Prokopovich said that "the Russian ruble nevvyadenne assist sustain growth in Belarus" and that "the last act of our colleagues has led to the question of introducing a single currency has been postponed indefinitely."
Russian President Tipo heard these statements from Minsk, from his mouth sounded hope that "the Belarusian colleagues in a position to realize the reliability of Russian economy and Russian national currency."
What does this sudden return of President of the Russian Federation to the union threads seemingly completely buried in the end the last trading and information warfare?
Scenario 1: Retreat
One of the possible explanations — the Kremlin retreats, first of political judgment. Dead for the elite thought Union really not dead in the Russian mass consciousness, especially unsafe in public renounce of the phantom in an election year. For that clarification states and mysterious behavior of Russian oil companies that this week agreed, despite the introduction of export duties, not to increase the cost Belarus. Little hard to believe that to assume the additional costs they unanimously decided without advice from the Kremlin.
Scenario 2: The Coming of the Union
But it is possible that Putin’s words — really restore union project so to speak, a position of strength. The crisis has shown the limits of ability to resist the pressure of Belarus, is also very uncertain prospects for Western support of Belarus. And at this point really does not matter there they say about the transition to the Russian ruble or Prokopovych Lukashenko, and the words "Belarusian colleagues in a position to realize the reliability of Russian economy" should be read on the contrary, Belarusian colleagues must recognize the weakness of the economy, which will not stand the new pressure if Minsk does not agree to the union proposal Moscow.
Scenario 3: The Union trap and market coming
In the end, there is a third explanation: Moscow’s goal in fact — market relations with Belarus. A discussion about the union — a trap for Lukashenko, an offer that is made in order to get at her refusal. This scheme Putin has already played out in 2002, during the famous "flies and cutlets." In favor of such interpretations suggest explanations Putin that Belarus does not know what he wants to Union: offer in Russia — is not willing, as in the Soviet Union — is not willing, following the example of the European Union — is not to their liking. Final destruction of species Lukashenko integrator — justification tougher next economic steps of.
That’s what read now Vladimir Putin on the Belarusian-Russian affairs:
Putin: "We do not want to harm the current president of Belarus" (audio)

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