Only 23% — or even 23%?
Drakakhrust: "Opposition prepares for March 25 giant share. Entrepreneurs outraged by presidential decree, which allows them to have their own employees only close relatives. Population as a whole is already beginning to feel the first results of the Belarusian-Russian energy crisis, which according to the latest least put in an incredible jump in property prices in Minsk.
With all these reasons — which can be say about the potential of protest in the Belarusian society? How big it is, it has risen in comparison with what it was a month, six months, a year earlier?
In a survey conducted in January this NISEPI, asked: if in your town have been protests against the deterioration of the economic situation, if you have taken in their role? Responded positively to 23%, more negative 2-thirds. Tis only 23% or even 23%? "
Pikulik: "I think that those actions that take place in Belarus in the near future, contribute to the accumulation of the reasons that could potentially lead to a civilian protest and mobilization. It’s like an earthquake — it happens instantaneously, and the reasons that led to it, can accumulate over years and decades. potential protest in Belarus exists and is even increasing, but if it breaks through — is unclear. "
What social mechanisms block the transition from discontent to protest?
Drakakhrust: "In Belarus, there are many people who are dissatisfied with their situation: some level of salaries, someone insults officials, lack of justice, someone — the inability to realize themselves, the lack of freedom. But what criteria dissatisfaction transformed into readiness to protest ? or another pose the question — what are the social mechanisms that block the transition from discontent to protest, then you, Alex, recently released an article on Belarus this topic. What are these all the same mechanisms? "
Pikulik: "Yes, this article came out almost a day or on the web site" Our worldview. "It says that though many may be unhappy with the change of the existing regime would be irrational and possibly sub-optimal even for those segments of the population that the regime almost around a lot and do not like what they do not like. Regime change would be expensive for many social groups than his preservation.
In-2-I agree in Belarus unlikely there is a general collective frame, the standard protest under which can be mobilize different groups, so they went outside. B-3, Belarus really do not have those channels, the institutions through which that protest might embody and express themselves. No strong civilian institutions of society, not a representative of political parties. In this connection should be shared discontent with the regime and the opposition and talk about the inability to translate into reality the protest on quite sur» eznym level.
Based in Italy, I can associate with the Belarusian situation, which occurs in Italy every Friday in public transport in all towns. For this is the law, it has to trade unions, for it has strong interests — and because it’s happening here. In Belarus, I think this will not be the last time. "
Or solidarity with those people who protest?
Drakakhrust: "Belarusian entrepreneurs — is not the most organized and able to protest population group. Entrepreneurial strike — a unique feature of the new Belarusian history in recent years, these performances were not even the most massive in comparison with other protests, but it seems only business came out this method to achieve at least something like it was a foreclosure order VCP 2005. But do not go out so that their protest particularly limited them and even their families, and did not cause the rest of the population no solidarity? Do not leave the same and shares the opposition? "
Pikulik: "I think that is unlikely to protest businessmen entail protest of other groups. During 1-x, what fraction of business in the domestic state product, their role in the economy in general? Small. Vo-2, it should be emphasized that businessmen protest — still more economic protest, is the protection of their own interests, their rights, own contracts, the protection of certain of capitalism and their mobilization occurs specifically on this basis. They really have nothing to lose.
I think that is not quite right to associate, say, a strike in April 1991 and the current situation. The existence of such authoritarianism for a number of years led to the complete deactivation of society, to deactivate their full mobilization that no mobilization is impossible outside the country.
Political analyst Vladimir Podgolov expressed bright outlook that against the deterioration of life as a result of the Belarusian-Russian crisis loudly protested, and even almost the only one who protested — that Alexander Lukashenko. It really is, but it does not happen because he is clever, and so — in Belarus that he is responsible for everything. Increasing prices mean energoelementy violation logic receiving rents due and which holds the Belarusian welfare. And of course, that he first who will be responsible for everything. This is not a neo-liberal model of the country, which have no hands, this government, in which the hands are and do everything. And shall do. In both stumped. "
What can an organized minority?
Drakakhrust: "There is a political science thesis that most of the minority, especially in unfree societies, flimsy notion that everything is decided, in the 1-x, minorities, in-2 — organized minority structure. Suitable whether this judgment to Belarusian current situation? "
Pikulik: "Indeed, in practice it works. Practically it does not matter what kind of democratization, it does not matter what kind of change occurs when a minority, well organized and firmly, forcing the government to include themselves in the decision-making process and give some rights for themselves. This is indeed the case, and more striking example of this — the experience of Latin America.
But here is whether this will happen in Belarus, thanks particularly to business — is unlikely. Entrepreneurs in Belarus — is a special group, which operates on a different logic than large municipal labor collectives. Naturally, they interfere with the general policy of import substitution, which is held from Belarus to maintain "the Belarusian miracle."
Very organized minority can influence the changes, but this minority is really very organized and how their work will make a difference — this is a specific question.
Finally, speaking about the causes of the current protests businessmen, it seems to me that it’s not such a fundamental topic for the country, and it can and make concessions. Go, the question comes off and it will be demonstrated how the government is going to meet different groups that it discriminates normally. "
Whether working on the possibility of protest prepyadstviya in relations with Russia?
Drakakhrust: "To what extent is the mood of the people in including and willingness to protest affects or may affect "ideological confusion" due nedavneshnego Belarusian-Russian crisis and the information war, which it comped. Previously, it was clear something: Our homeland — a friend and brother, the West — the enemy. Suddenly, his brother — the main enemy and there from which the enemy yesterday Belarusians heartily defends. Our homeland again later Tipo brother again, it’s a loan, please. On the other hand, according to the survey, of which I have read, more than half of Belarusians felt that Lukashenko has shown himself d
uring this crisis a strong politician, only every fourth expressed the view that the president showed himself a weak and many succumbed. Because these different ideological reasons related to the Belarusian-Russian crisis, the potential influence of protest? "
Pikulik "mode will last until he is able to pay for itself, yet be able to maintain this logic of redistribution. As for ideology, for it seems to me, the enemy yet — it is not our homeland, the enemy — it’s" Gazprom " enemy — is the Kremlin, the enemy — is Putin. But our homeland, not fraternal Russian people. Here we have the case where ideology adapts to the situation, if it is designed to explain everything to everyone. And I do not think it will cause a strong dissonance , a strong discontinuity, which affects something.
In the end, I would put a swing that ideology and ideological apparatus in Belarus work very well in the near future. I do not think that the municipal ideology fulfilled its puzzle, it seems to me that as soon as its impact is weakened. I do not deny that the occupied media influence on people’s minds. But do not, for sure, to demonize the Belarusian ideology and exaggerate this effect. "