January: The growth in demand for the currency — 85%
For management of disk imaging State Bank of Belarus in January people and enterprises of various forms of accessories have acquired banks cash foreign currency by 85% more than the same time last year. Since the beginning of the year sold the equivalent of about 470 million dollars. In the last month of 2006 the currency was sold even more — nearly half a billion dollars on.
Rakov economist Lena believes that the peak of activity coincided with the time of uncertainty in Russian-Belarusian relations and the threat of a possible collapse after the sharp increase in prices for energoelementy.
Rakov: "Here, with one side, oil and gas war with Russia. On the other hand, rumors denomination devaluation. All this, of course, does not contribute to a decrease in demand for the currency. "
Devaluation will not, but do not envy the National Bank
However, according to the professional situation stabilizes uniformly. According to the State Bank, over half the population in February zopoluchilo banks a little more than 200 million dollars and impartial reason to break the record of past months, no. Meanwhile, as stated Lena Rakov, from banking systems requires maximum effort to maintain the stability of the Belarusian ruble at the same level. In another case, the control of the country will face a possible problem.
Rakov: "Either increase the external debt of the country, or prevent devaluation. But devaluation would cause panic and collapse all. Because, I believe, the commercial banks, the State Bank will delay until the last course. I think in This year they have enough reserves to contain.
Another thing is that in the future will have to repay these loans, in other words, again, this is a Short-term policy. But devaluation is likely, will not. Who will be one by one application and slowly stir this will decrease. The course is held, will take place a month or two, and people again start making ruble deposits. But still the situation closely track down because small differences (even depreciate by 5 rubles) a wave would lift again, that is not enough not find it. Because the National Bank was in hostage situations. Do not envy the National Bank. "
1.5 billion dollars loan — to maintain the stability of the Belarusian ruble?
Also experts they say that supplies strength in the Belarusian monetary sphere is not boundless. Specifically, they associate with this request of the Belarusian government to Russian side to provide a stabilization loan of 1.5 billion dollars. The main argument named energoelementy rise in imports from Russia. But another prerequisite for many refer just the need to maintain the myth of the stability of the Belarusian ruble.
Meanwhile Russian Economic Development Minister German Gref said on Those Days, Our homeland that can see the question of stabilization loan for Belarus. Bureaucrat is not directly said that the issue can be resolved quickly, but said that "it has the right to exist."
Recall that since the beginning of 2007, Belarus receives energy from Russia at the new prices. Thus, the cost of Russian gas Belarus in 2007 was increased from $ 46.68 to $ 100 bucks for a thousand cubic meters. Essentially a huge expense at the moment is pulling oil supplies.
Belarusians are buying the currency and do not believe in "magic Belarusian"