Taras Kuzio recalls that in 2002 Belarus Vladimir Putin’s offer to join the Russian Federation as a 6 province was met with a sharp refusal of Alexander Lukashenko.
According to the creator of the film, that crisis has revealed the full nedeyazdolnasts ideas Slavic union. All of the following years itBelarusian favorite t kept integratsyyanistskuyu rhetoric to provide a cheap Russian Belarus energoelementy but more inclined to defend sovereignty own country. "The West is not able to realize that Lukashenko — the most influential Belarusian Russian nationalist" — says Taras Kuzio.
But you try to connect and support union nationalism dealt a heavy blow Russian rise in gas prices and oil prices. With all of this Belarus, unlike Ukraine, could not ultimately retain their gas and power went to buy a half stake in the Russian Federation "Beltransgaz".
According to the views of the creator of «Kyiv Post», the Russian Federation is not the purpose of regime change in Belarus: Our homeland, unlike in the West, recognized the results of unfair elections 2006, and the requirement to increase the price of gas has come from Moscow only after the announcement of the results of these elections.
Taras Kuzio believes that the Kremlin would prefer substitution Lukashenko more flexible authoritarian favorite, that would be an ally of Russia, but has not sought to exchange the empty rhetoric of the Slavic Union for economic preferences.
Creator «Kyiv Post» believes that Lukashenko is in a more difficult situation than last Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, who balance between the West and Russia. However, Lukashenko has made some proposals to the West after the energy crisis in relations with Russia. West said Taras Kuzio, could make suggestions to meet, but only in exchange for a certain liberalization of the regime, which Lukashenka was unwilling to do.
Coupled with the fact, researcher notes, the current conflict between the Kremlin and Lukashenko does not mean Our homeland that now will support the Belarusian opposition, which it considers as before very westernized. "Our homeland — wrote Kuze — is currently growing more pro-Russian leader among the Belarusian elite, namely in the ranks of the KGB."
"Our homeland Lukashenko seeks to change the post-Soviet pro-Russian favorite, who would have started economic reforms and privatization in Belarus, which would render the possibility of Russian oligarchs get huge pieces of the economy this country"- Says Taras Kuzio South American researcher in the current issue of the newspaper« Kyiv Post ».