Shock and Awe for Assad

Shock and Awe for Assad
Americans are waging war on a template, the template is always different from their
Konstantin Sivkov
U.S. military threats and their allies in Syria adresok sound louder. Barack Obama has declared its readiness to strike even without UN sanction. Manage Turkey with all this is not just focused on a limited impact, and full-scale invasion on the role of the Army. Configured for military anger Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Jordan provided its area to accommodate groups of American troops. For the U.S. invasion have all the necessary military-strategic bridgehead.

Yankees chances to obtain the consent of the Security Council of the UN military operation negligible. In the absence of any international legal justification for their actions America can only rely on its own resources. And despite the fact that the political elite in the United States are harsh and powerful forces that are configured on the rejection of a large-scale military intervention. 12 NATO nations have reported refusal to participate in this campaign. On the background of the brutal Israeli rhetoric of senior management of military-expert community of Israel speaks badly about the ability of the country’s own role in the war against Syria, pointing out that to replace Bashar al-Assad can come Islamic radicals, which would be impossible to agree and Israel will receive the next continuous front.

Yet U.S. military manufacturing last.

United front

To establish control over Syria and seeks control of Turkey, announced a policy of revival majestically ports. At one time, this area came in the Ottoman Empire.

Interested to control Damascus and builders of a new Islamic caliphate Sunni Arab, first in Saudi Arabia, which provides comprehensive assistance to the warring here constructive Islamic groups.

Collage Andrew greyish

That still regard armed enemies of legitimate authority in Syria itself, then you can provide at least three groups — pro-Western, pro-Turkish and constructive Islamist Sunni.

Pro-Western, pro-American mostly aims at domination Damascus western world as a raw material appendage and military-strategic bridgehead to control the Middle East region.

Seeking to revive pro-Turkish Turkish impact in this country.

The purpose of constructive Islamist group — the creation of a new Islamic caliphate Sunni Arab relying on the support of largely Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies.

Now, these groups act as a united front, solving the overall puzzle overthrow the current management of the country.

But if they will perform zagadanoe (now it can only be subject to a military operation), the armed struggle between them for power in Syria is inevitable.

No hope at contenders for control of Damascus and democratic elections to be held in May next year due to the expiration of the presidential possibilities Assad. According to American professionals, will vote for him again, more than 70 percent of the population.

Military operation — the only chance to change the power of external forces.

With different goals

Operation against Syria will neither limited nor the short-term. They say this country’s size, population, relatively high level of combat capability of the Syrian army and the highest morale. The fact that the country will face a rather long and bloody war can be judged by the presence of international support for the existing Syrian control, including the military and Iranian movement «Hezbollah».

Base of the anti-Syrian coalition is likely to make the United States. France also in case of the Yankees’ decision to accept a limited military operation role in attacks on Syria.

May have a role in the war on the side of the U.S. and Israel. But judging by the statements usmotritelnym his administration, the country entered the war, provided that Washington and other Western countries will create a fairly strong group of troops (forces), which will be able to crush guaranteed Syrian armed forces, providing bringing to power pro-Western politicians.

Turkey is also likely to be an active participant in this coalition and can use the majority of their own role in the Air Force for air operations with the U.S. and even perform invasion by land forces.

Ready to support Washington in the war against Syria and Saudi Arabia. But its distance from the Syrian countryside and low level of combat readiness Air Force very limit military efforts in Riyadh.

Qatar, insisting on a military operation, it is also possible party coalition. Participant, in general, quite symbolic due to the insignificance of its armed forces.

England in a military operation fails to take a role in the strength of the respective parliamentary decisions. But diplomatic, political and informational support the U.S. in this matter will be provided every kind, including the provision of intelligence.

Interests possible participants anti-Syrian coalition differ.

The main aim of Washington and Paris will probably be bringing to power the representatives of the liberal wing of the opposition, is closely related to Europe and the United States.

Turkey will try to achieve that, so dependent on her favorite opposition, largely based on the number of currently in the Turkish countryside, entered the Syrian future management and ability to dominate it.

Saudi Arabia will seek to seize power in Syria constructive Islamists groups oriented toward her.

Invasion force

In military operations from Syria will participate virtually all the cash part of its armed forces after full mobilization and deployment. On the side of Damascus likely perform grouping militants «Hezbollah» and militias Kurds living both on the ground of Syria and in neighboring countries, namely Turkey.

In other words, to wage war against Syria should be created quite a powerful group of troops (forces).

Available at the present time in the area likely fighting U.S. forces and France apparently insufficient for applying such harm to the armed forces and military infrastructure of Syria, which could have a significant impact on the vnutrisiriyskogo confrontation.

It is certain that the recent harsh military operations against Damascus unlikely. Available forces its opponents can only be applied selectively for restricted forces strikes in order to kill warehouses of weapons and ammunition, the position of long-range air defense missile systems, command centers and selected military airfields.

These acts may start fighting after the creation of a fairly strong group of Air Force and Navy, capable in rather short time to solve the puzzle defeat the Syrian air defense system and oppression of its aircraft.

To do this, the aggressor must have more than 1,500 aircraft for various purposes (including up to 700 drums) and the same long-range cruise missiles, sea or air.

This grouping can be created after the arrival in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea U.S. Navy forces with 4 — 6 aircraft carriers, surface warships 50-60, 10-12 submarines.

Several wings of tactical aircraft the United States need to deploy to the area of ​​Turkey, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

With air bases in the Indian Ocean, on the ground in Europe and England, and with the continental United States can be applied from 15-20 to 30-40 strategic bombers B-52 and B-2.

Maybe for a role in the military operation will be able to put France aircraft carrier «Charles de Gaulle» aircraft with 40 on board (including about 30 drums) with escort ships and several squadrons of tactical aircraft from the airbase «Al-Dahr» (UAE).

Turkey and Israel can use to strike at Syria the main part of their tactical aircraft.

Air War

In the criteria of disagreement UNSC coalition aggressors will seek to achieve its goals in a very rather short time to deliver a world society with a fait accompli, as it did in Iraq in 2003.

Military action aggressor begin in a moment of massive air-missile attacks on the plan offensive air operations. Its total duration may be three — five days, during which will be applied from 5 to 7 such strikes. The purpose of the operation — the conquest of the air.

Judging from the experience of similar operations, the aggressor may turn out to crush and kill a large part of the stationary SAMs first long-range air defense missile systems S-200 «Vega», part of the air surveillance and control system of air defense. In general, the air defense system will be disorganized and Syria will lose a large extent possible resistance to air enemy.

But to ensure its complete oppression and kill aviation airfields Syria is unlikely to succeed.

Will be relatively small and the loss of ground forces in Syria. Trying to avoid the need for a ground operation, the aggressor is likely to pass management of the air campaign, during which will seek to defeat the main elements of the military infrastructure of Syria, the main grouping suppress its ground forces and ability to kill Syrian favorites, first Bashar Assad.

Immediately from the territory of Jordan and Turkey to Syria will focus new contingents militants.

Taking into account the experience of other countries which have appeared under such attacks, the Syrian army is likely to be able to maintain the combat capability (as in Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya in the midst of parts, which have not changed commanders own country). Mobile Connection Syrian army, covered autonomous mobile AIA army air defense, using operational measures and new methods of concealment warfare able assistance of the militants «Hezbollah» and Kurdish militias inflict severe defeat of the opposition fighters.

Immediately you can expect with this fighting intensified paramilitary PKK on Turkish countryside. Activated and protest activity of the Shiite majority in Saudi Arabia. Rise sharply antimilitarist mood in the United States and European countries — allies of Washington. Aggravated on the background of large military costs economic crisis in Europe and the USA.

In the end, it becomes clear that without a ground invasion, only by militants, and even supported by strong air strikes, to solve the puzzle overthrow the Syrian government will not work. Moreover, having no real result, control the U.S. and its allies will face the need to minimize air strikes. And this is a political defeat.

It turns out that large-scale ground operation without political aims of the war out of reach. This will mean the end of the war the original pitch, which duration can be from 2-to 4 months.

Land invasion and guerrilla

Base ground forces of the aggressor may make connections 1st Field Army of Turkey, several armored and infantry brigades of the Israeli army, 2nd Marine Division Forwarding, armored and mechanized divisions and other compounds of the U.S. armed forces. The total strength of the invasion could 150-200 thousand.

Enforced land invasion to the Syrian countryside herald the coming of a new step of the war — land operations. Judging from the experience of similar wars, they will last a relatively short time. Within the boundaries of one or two months the main factions of the armed forces of Syria will be destroyed due to overwhelming military-technological and numerical advantages of the enemy. By formal authority in the country comes a puppet government consisting of representatives of the main pro-Western opposition. On the Syrian occupation regime established areas, similar to that which took place in Iraq. But in this war will not end.

She goes into the next phase — a guerrilla. In the fight against the most diverse groups will merge. Guerrilla forces base amount opponents foreign occupation and its allies, namely the militants «Hezbollah» and Kurdish militias. These over time can join the militants and constructive Islamist organizations. Just as is happening now in Libya, they will fight against the Western puppets, trying to seize power.

We can safely assume that the guerrilla movement will get pretty grim outside support. National liberation movement support Iran also different Shiite and Alawite groups. Saudi Arabia will help design Sunni Islamists. Unlikely to remain on the sidelines and China is well aware that the likely right behind Syria defeat Iran would deprive him of the 1st of the most important sources of energy.

Ultimately, the guerrilla war will drag on for many years. Judging by the experience of Iraq, 5 — seven years or more. In the end result is the same — the occupying forces will be forced to leave the country and come to power forces minded towards the West is very bad.

General loss in the midst of the coalition forces may make five or six thousand people. The death toll in the midst of the Syrian army can get the experience of other similar conflicts several 10’s of thousands. Victims in the midst of the civilian population of several hundred thousand lives.

The war will be spent big money. Imminent loss against the general opposition to the war of the USA population can lead to a sharp increase in social impermanence and other bad events in the coalition. In particular, if we consider the factor of external influence on these processes.

Konstantin Sivkov,
First vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical problems, Doctor of Military Sciences

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