Why is there so fast economic difficulties?

Valery Karbalevich: "Earlier this year, when our country has made strong steps to enter satsunkah with Belarus on market relations, Alexander Lukashenko, other Belarusian officials reassured the population — were that everything is fine, our economy vitality, people will not feel problems.
Prime Sidorsky in January referred digit growth — 13%. And are independent economists have also argued that this year the economy of Belarus should not feel huge problems. Especially since, that there were certain provisions — for example, the budget surplus for the past year, the Foundation created the state of development.
Yet already in the first two months there have been signs of economic problems. It was reported that the government is going to ask the Russian loan of 1.5 billion dollars. Also this topic negotiations with Switzerland. In Minsk, the prices for food consumption by 10-15% due to the sales tax.
Here at the meeting on the situation in the TV plant Lukashenko noted that they do not have the ability to continue to help the budget. Decreased export of petroleum products, reduced supplies and other currencies. So why is there so fast economic difficulties? "
Yaroslav Romanchuk, "can lead to the same economic problems other examples. Increased storage supplies products. Banks ended loans in Belarusian rubles. Ministry of Statistics does not reflect one hundred percent of such problems.
In short, if the first step transition to market relations with Russia has led to such results, it means that the Belarusian model does not have the strength of supplies, which they say authorities. Belarus is not enough currency to inflation and devaluation without even six months to live.
Currently early state that the economy entered a crisis. There are funds in the budget, the accounts of companies. But there is a transition to a different step of the business cycle. In 2002-2006, there was a step climb through the aid of. Currently recession will begin. And the rate of fall will depend on the policy of the authorities. "
Alexander Chubrik: "Indeed, those suitable external conditions that enabled the Belarusian economy to grow without reforms ended. But the transition to the new conditions will take place slowly. Speaking of numbers. Sidorsky stated that 13% — a growth industry in January. A gross domestic product grew by about 9%.
About the Russian loan. Forecasts-independent professionals for this year came from the fact that the lack of funds that will arise from the transition in energy trade with Russia to a market economy, must be refunded or loans or foreign investment. That loan of 1.5 billion dollars will allow to avoid devaluation.
At the end of the past — the beginning of this year, the outflow of deposits from the banking system. There was panic. National Bank was obliged to implement some of the cash reserves. Such a situation may occur again. Because the National Bank strives to insure and take the credit.
Increased the prices of utilities (heating and electricity became more expensive) and imported products from other countries. This causes the pressure decrease in the money market. After all, people will less money, so take currency.
This year planned to increase the average wage to 340 bucks, in other words, in terms of money growth is a little more than 9%. And according to the official forecast of inflation should be around 8%. It turns out that the growth in real wages will be only about 1.5%. This will be another factor that will reduce the pressure on the money market and will be an obstacle to the devaluation of the ruble. "
Karbalevich: "How true is valid in these countries control criteria? Can find some logic, some trend, the direction of the actions of the authorities?"
Romanchuk: "This logic does not extend beyond the boundaries of the planned economy, which exists in the country. Raise taxes (for example, a tax on land).
These criteria borrow unsafe. If Belarus had a good credit rating, it could raise loans by 5%. But if you borrow 15-20%, then you can soon be in debt.
So Makar, two or three years we will get subsequent, significant oil and gas flows will bypass Belarus; huge debt to Russia; closed Russian market for our products because our homeland to join the World Trade company, and Belarus — no. Because, I think, at the end of this year will be more drastic liberalization requirements from companies and businessmen. "
Chubrik: "I agree that if this policy will last, it will lead the country into a serious crisis. Rising debt will not lead to nothing great.
But this year the Belarusian administration steps completely logical and correct. Indeed, in the past years, the government did not use the appropriate external environment to prepare the economy to problems. And then the only correct step could be market-oriented reforms. Since no other way for a five-year term, no. "
Karbalevich: "As for the fact that no other way. I remember says so all the politicians and experts in 1994 after the election of President Lukashenko. But soon be thirteen years old, as he goes by a different method. Market reforms is always a candidate. For example path of North Korea.
But at the moment I ask about something else. What can wait in the second half, the end of the year? Or economic difficulties will continue to grow? Perhaps the situation is normalized? "
Romanchuk: "What would the government now do — either liberalization or zatsiskanne nuts — it fails to prevent the crisis. We tend to deteriorating trade balance in almost all positions. ‘Cause I predict devaluation this year, real inflation 15-20% end of the year. If we do not liberalize at the moment, then the subsequent year will be more languid. Only through the adoption of directives these problems can not be solved. "
Chubrik: "I do not agree with the sovereign Romanchuk and I believe that this year will keep the devaluation of less than 1-2%. After devaluation even 5-10% would be a huge blow to the banking system and put an end to the policy of the National Bank last five or six years.
Prospects of the Belarusian economy is bad, because it loses those suitable external conditions that she past years. It is suitable for imported energoelementy prices, and rising prices for petroleum products.
How many years the Belarusian products lose competitiveness in the Russian market. As profits and Russian people and companies grow. As a result, they more get foreign products and technologies over the highest property. So makarom Belarus loses external sources of growth. But these problems can be the smallest, if elected path of liberalization. "
Karbalevich: "So Makar, the transition to market relations with Russia has caused economic difficulties already in the first months of the year. This figure inefficiency of the Belarusian economic model. My interlocutors believe that the end of the year these difficulties will only increase. But any fundamentally configurations in economic policy management in Belarus is not seen. "

Like this post? Please share to your friends: