Scenario Ukrainian coup — a novelty for the post-Soviet space: so far in any of the CIS states similar coups occurred. Usually inhabitants fraternal republics perceive «color revolution» as massive (and in some cases, peaceful) protests confined to another election. But the coup took place in Kiev does not a pattern: it seems Ukraine successfully tested one of the options of the «Arab Spring», adapted to the former Russian Union. Is a similar scenario in other CIS countries, and if so, how the West will try to destabilize the former Soviet Union?
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan: maidan with a dash of Islamism
According to the views of political scientists, more vulnerable to foreign-inspired coups country located in Central Asia. Ability to control the Central Asian republics are limited to financial difficulties. In addition, the Central Asia — one of the important areas of American foreign policy, the region secured minerals and capable of becoming a springboard for coming to China and Russia.
More possible candidates for destabilization are Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. From Kyrgyzstan everything is clear: the economy is in the doldrums, most of the population lives below the poverty line, municipal coups have long become part of everyday life. Another rebellion, as it was in 2005 and 2010, no one will amaze. By the way, next year in Kyrgyzstan completes current five-year political cycle, and perhaps will happen after the coup.
The U.S. is likely to perform in support of the Kyrgyz rebels, because today the republic’s authorities require from Washington as soon as possible to evacuate South American military base «Manas». But the United States wants to stay in Central Asia: Plans U.S. officials — conversion of the military base, but not its elimination.
With Kazakhstan harder: the republic’s economy is developing steadily, the country is located on the ground a huge amount of oil and gas fields. To produce destabilizing the country, foreign sponsors have to make some effort. At least some random reason to revolt, as in Kyrgyzstan, will not be enough: in order to achieve a suitable result, have deliberately «handle» Kazakh society in a couple of years.
Such work is carried out intensively. In Kazakhstan there are small cells of Islamist groups that organize the attacks and with the introduction of methods of disinformation trying to sow panic in the big cities. Fundamentalist organizations exhibit unusual activity in southern Kazakhstan, where most of the population are Muslims. In the north, on the contrary, Christians live, and many of their nationality — Russian.
Because of its consequences coup in Kazakhstan will be much worse than in Ukraine, because if the power will come in Astana constructive Islamists (or will command Kazakh bureaucrats, as do the Ukrainian Bandera), persecution of people of Kazakhstan will start not only on the national, and on religious grounds.
Overview of Central Asia — not to show weakness!
Also in the queue are destabilizing Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Uzbekistan — prepyadstviya with continuity of power: President Islam Karimov of the Republic so far not found a decent substitute for itself though is in honor of age. In the ruling elite has matured severe conflict and bureaucrats involved in the backstage confrontation with the country for the right to inherit.
Against this background, the republic may return «Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan» — an influential group of Islamic fundamentalists, who found refuge in the area of Afghanistan. During the war against the American occupiers IMU militants have acquired experience and provided many have found allies — such as obezbashennoy Islamist internationalists.
The situation in Turkmenistan is also unstable. New favorite Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov — not such a tough and confident within himself ruler, as was his predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov. Very considerable danger that the president of Turkmenistan does not cope with internal and external challenges, especially in the criteria when the country observes neutrality and serious, as a consequence, the Allies did not have enough, while the Turkmen oil — a lure for many.
In Tajikistan, the maidan though what for him is like a death. Republic has experienced war civilians, and so plunge it into chaos, rather just a few massacred the inhabitants of a provincial town, which in the 90s was in opposition to the central government. For example, a similar scenario just was not implemented in the Gorno-Badakhshan autonomous region in 2012.
Chance whether the «Square»?
Belarus in Europe is often seen as a further candidate for «revolution.» But, According to experts, such speculation is not conditioned. Alexander Lukashenko and he understands it, he accurately described the real background of the Ukrainian crisis, when he said that the collapse of the economy in Ukraine was due to rampant corruption and serious confrontation between politicians. Also the president of Belarus gave not a good valuation of the business eldest son, Viktor Yanukovych.
Unlike the disgraced favorite of Ukraine, Alexander Lukashenko can boast that his country is measured and it does not expect such a sad end, as well as the southern neighbor. Economy operates normally, being effective fight against corruption, the sons of officials do not own business empire. For all businessmen have a level playing field, «holes» in the budget is not. And this criteria sanctions from Euro Union!
Belarusians to own Maidan not ready: popular discontent is unlikely to reach such a level where the inhabitants of Belarus will take to the streets en masse capital and regional centers. Those small groups of militants who are trained in special camps, will not be the deciding factor, as it was in the Ukraine, due to the small number of possible demonstrations in Kiev Holding barricades strategy is unlikely to work.
Yet, on the eve of the presidential elections in 2015, Alexander Lukashenko, has prepared a bill on time «On Martial Law» and gave it to the parliament. The new law significantly extends the capabilities of the country at the head of the armed suppression of rebellions, riots and other anti-government protests.
Best antimaydannaya graft
Belarus — one of the links of strongest post-Soviet space, but it has little strategic importance, and its destabilization will likely only enjoyable prize for the West, but not the main goal.
The main task for the United States and Europe, of course, is the overthrow of the constitutional order in Russia. Make it through Belarus impossible for the usual reason that Alexander Lukashenko in the Kremlin’s backing easily restore order at home. Easiest to get close to the borders of Russia through Kazakhstan: if this country is on the verge of a split, will need to make nesusvetnye efforts to extinguish the flames of war.
Kazakhstan — key to Russia. In turn, the key to Kazakhstan — Kyrgyzstan, one of the more vulnerable of the fraternal republics. If there happens coup, it is not excluded the Middle East scenario, when for a little chat Tunisia rebelled big Algeria, Egypt, Syria.
Our homeland decides measures aimed at strengthening the military presence in Kyrgyzstan. Thus, Russian diplomats uniformly «squeezed» from this South American country airbase «Manas», and instead gone foreigners in the country plans to increase the Russian military forces. Thanks to this Moscow will warn another stupid and bloody uprising, while this does not necessarily shoot someone or rather slightly flex his muscles. The presence of Russian troops in the post-Soviet space any state — significant mental factor, even if the soldiers remain neutral.
Increasingly important political and financial integration in the post-Soviet space. Revival Union structures — only candidate «maydanizatsii.» In practice, the inhabitants of the CIS states must make a choice between economic stability, prosperity and confidence in the next day with one hand and serious destabilization under the guise of «democratization» — on the other. Crimeans first realized this and made their own choice of civilization. Have to wait for others.
Created by Artem Wit