Russia loses India

Russia loses India
But Moscow still have a chance to give new impetus to bilateral military-technical cooperation
Artem Ivanovo
Despite the measured temper outside the Russian-Indian relations, the level of the strategic impact of in this naikrupneyshim Eurasian power is on the wane. Russian foreign policy, aimed at the concept of a strategic triangle, decorative designs BRICS and SCO, increasingly not reflect the real picture of the situation in South Asia and the Asia-Pacific region. Because the RF is now before a crucial choice: to continue the stupid multi-vector policy or to take decisive steps to establish military-political axis Moscow — New Delhi.

June 23-24 in India on an official visit U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. Were held in US-India talks on such fundamental issues as the evolution of Asian regional architecture, solution to the crisis in Afghanistan, military-technical cooperation. The main outcome of the talks with the heads of government of Kerry and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India in agreements on expanding cooperation in energy, high technology, and defense and security.

We emphasize that the questions that open a discussion John Kerry in New Delhi, not only of great importance for Russia, and directly affect its strategic interests. And the fact that India prefers to negotiate on these issues with the United States, indicates severe failures of Russian foreign policy in the strategically principled Indian direction.

US-Indian rapprochement

«The United States not only welcomes India’s rise as a world power, and want to promote it in every way» — with such a policy statement made by John Kerry in New Delhi. These are not empty words. During the last 5 years the United States develop alternate course of rapprochement with India. Recall that the July 18, 2009, the then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton South American arrived in the Indian capital and announced: «A new era begins in the relations between India and the United States.» Starting point of this new era was the signing of a bilateral agreement on the supervision of the United States for the introduction of modern weapons in the Indian armed forces. On this day, the volume of bilateral trade exceeded 100 billion dollars, and the South American investment in India eclipsed 25 billion At the same time Kerry stressed that this is not the limit: U.S. seeks to greatly expand their business presence in India, which in the coming 10 years to become the third economy world. For comparison: according to official statistics portal TRADE disk imaging Ministry of Economic Development, in 2012 the Russian-Indian trade reached 11 billion dollars, the amount of accumulated investment in the Russian economy of India — 623.5 million dollars.

Unusual is the problem of incipient in the last four years a tendency to noticeably weaken Russia’s position on the arms market in India. Since June 11, the Indian Air Force made a final decision on the substitution of Russian transport aircraft Il-76 South American C-17. Edition of The Calcutta Telegraph noted in this regard: «The era of leadership of the Russian Federation in Indian transport aircraft begins to wane.» Can recall other examples illustrating this disturbing trend: the loss of the tender Indian MiG-35 combat helicopter Mi-28 transport helicopter Mi-25T2. In general, over the past two years Our motherland India missed contracts with more than 13 billion dollars. With all of this previously unshakable position intercept Russian military equipment the United States and NATO countries.

Reduction in the total volume of arms exports from Russia to India, Russian producers and experts usually explain purely technical neuvvyazkami: appreciation devices products, a significant increase innovatorskih and technological requirements of the Indian side to technology etc.. Coupled with that silence manages the trivial fact that the military technical cooperation is closely interconnected with the political strategy. In other words, if we call India naikrupneyshim market for arms and military equipment, then this in itself implies obligations and appropriate political-military plan. Only some Russian experts separately taken directly called deep background of increasing orientation of India on military-technical cooperation with the U.S. and NATO. Thus, the expert of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST) Ruslan Aliev defines as the main specifically political, not technological reason: «There is a global strategic value of the country. Indians are afraid of growing economic and military power of China, and a string of large orders from the U.S. justified zeal to strengthen the military and political partnership with Washington. » From this perspective, the growing anti-American rhetoric of the Kremlin and continuous gestures toward China as a priority strategic partner summoned to New Delhi at least misunderstanding.

Castles in the air Russian strategy

Not so long ago Russian Chinese edition of «China Star» published a gigantic article entitled: «Strategic Triangle Our motherland — China — India: Reality configuration.» The article begins with incense wisest outer Moscow’s policy: «In December 1998, Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov during his official visit to India expressed opinion about the desirability of forming a» strategic triangle Moscow — New Delhi — Beijing. » The words of the then manager of the Russian government were, though sudden, but very logical. Spoken in New Delhi, they emphasized intrigued of in strengthening ties between India and China in the criteria expressed dissatisfaction when Moscow bombing planes South American country of Iraq. » The whole tone of the article leaves no hesitation as to whom in reality profitable idea of ​​a strategic triangle. Yet treatment Primakov resigned this first doomed idea continued to serve as the subject of harsh foreign policy plans of the Kremlin. You may recall how, in June 2002 the South American newspaper Christian Science Monitor stated: «The Kremlin builds a strategic triangle with China and India.» Next, in 2008, on the pages of some Russian publications still flickered festive toast in honor of the decade strategic triangle. Ultimately a decade appeared lost for the sake of building castle in the air.

Moreover, the obsession thought 1st castle in the air led to the creation of other castles in the air, outside reminding myself if I may say so, the principle of nesting dolls, where excellent geopolitical projects of a series of strategic triangle alternately inserted into one another. Specifically, should be regarded as projects such as the SCO (BRIC). Currently, the main problem is that such projects were created in relation to the conditions of the military-political situation in the world that are now irrelevant and have undergone very significant changes. If you recall the adventurous, openly anti-Russian policy of the Bush administration, it should be recognized that the concept of the creation of counterweight to the U.S. and NATO SCO means, of course, correct. But now, along with the configuration of external threats appeared temper specific evaluation of the project the SCO. So, June 7, 2012 President of the Institute for Public Strategies Misha Remizov in an interview with the online edition of «Km. Ru «made subsequent perceptible statement:» The development of our relations with China is a concern. SCO, in my opinion, is more of a Chinese project and its title reflects the essence of the matter. Impact of China’s dominant here. «

So Makar, began losing the position of Russia in India, both political and economic — it until the first fruits of castles in the air Russian strategy. Even worse consequences can continue the course of so-called multi-vector policy.

Multi-vector policy deadlock

Adopted May 12, 2009 national security strategy includes Russian Federation subsequent statement: «The transition from bloc confrontation to the principles of multi-vector policy». At the theoretical level, this seems like a good position. But if you apply it to real practical steps of in relation to India and China, we get the following picture.

September 27, 2010. Moscow and Beijing signed a joint statement on the comprehensive deepening of Sino-Russian strategic partnership. Also, an agreement was signed between Russia and China on cooperation in the fight against terrorism, separatism and extremism.

December 21, 2010. Our homeland and India signed an agreement to jointly combat terrorism and intelligence sharing. Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov said that Russian-Indian strategic partnership involves not only a high level of mutual trust, the comparability of indigenous public interest, a convergence of goals and objectives for 2-states, similar approaches to the most burning problems of our time, and the scope and prospects of cooperation.

May 28, 2013. Decided on the Russian-Chinese counterterrorism exercises Chebarkul. «From 1 to 15 August Our homeland and China will hold joint counterterrorism exercises in Chebarkulsky landfill» — told the head of the press service of the Central Military Area Colonel Jaroslav Roschupkin.

June 11, 2013. Agreed Russian-Indian exercise «Indra-2013», in which the role of the military will accept the Eastern Military Area. This year, these maneuvers counterterrorism orientation held in October at the site «Mahajan» on the ground in India.

At first glance, nothing special. But in a matter of weeks before the decision of the Russian Federation to conduct joint military exercises with China on the Indian-Chinese border incident occurred stern. Recall that on April 15 the PLA unit defected section of the border with India in Ladakh, which for fifty years is a zone of smoldering border conflict. Towards the Chinese border guards were Indian. Settlement incident took place May 5: Military both sides moved to the initial position. We emphasize that the Indian experts predict the outbreak of war between with 2 leading Asian powers in the coming decades perspective. De facto India is currently in the process of formation of a military-political alliances in order to deter a potential aggressor. Because multi-vector policy of the Russian Federation is not the best means of strengthening relations with India.

To complete the picture make out through the prism of a multi-vector policy of Russian arms exports.

December 24, 2012 Moscow signed an agreement with New Delhi, several agreements in the sphere of military-technical cooperation totaling 2.9 billion dollars. Namely, the Russian defense industry will deliver to India technological kits for licensed assembly of 42 Su-30MKI fighters.

June 17, 2013 in the Russian mass media reports surfaced that China Our homeland put the latest batch of functional Su-35 fighters. The question of supplying China Su-35, as air and naval equipment, open a discussion in March during the visit to Moscow of Chinese state delegation headed by President Xi Jinping.

Note that Su-35S — deeply modernized functional maneuverable fighter of «4 + +», in their tactical and technical characteristics significantly superior Su-30MKI. In addition, India lips Chief of General Staff of the Navy Admiral Devendra Kumar Joshi just announced that China buildup of naval power is a major concern in India. With all this in the framework of multi-vector policy Moscow is trying to do export guns another possible opponent Indian — Pakistan. Even Russian experts consider a similar course wrong. For example, special issues of foreign policy and diplomacy Sergey Lunev on pages publication «International Trends» stated: «The significant strengthening of relationships with Pakistan, especially in the military-political sphere, it seems hopeless. Delivery of military equipment can only have negative consequences. Pakistan is not so much lust strengthen its defense capabilities as trying to disrupt the Russian-Indian military and political ties. Our homeland in 2011 was displeased with losing the tender to supply India 126 fighter jets and functional New Delhi attempts to procure spare parts for Russian weapons from third countries. But the zeal to «punish» their own partner selling weapons to Pakistan will cause a sharp reaction from India only. Even in commercial terms, taking into account the low solvency of Pakistan losses will be high. «

Taking into account all these «costs» multi-vector policy, it is not surprising gradual decline Russian impact in India and militarily, politically and economically.

Axis Moscow — New Delhi

May 31 in Tokyo held talks Prime Minister Japan Shinzo Abe and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. On the outcome of these negotiations can be judged by leading news agencies reported: «Japan and India do the latest axis in Asia.» Special mention should be the official point of view of Indian media: India and Japan raised the level of its strategic partnership on the latest stage of, pledged to work together in the interests of stability in the Asia-Pacific region, where is increasingly flexing its muscles China. Namely, the subject of the agreement is the expansion of military-technical cooperation. India and Japan have agreed to conduct joint maneuvers Navy, Japanese companies will be able to supply the Indian Air Force military aircraft and nuclear reactors. Superfluous to read that from that moment on Russian exporters has another stern opponent.

Interesting to note that Russian officials did not once criticized Ukraine for conducting a multi-vector policy and the Ukrainian authorities to justify its hopelessness. But what is the real future of the Russian policy in the same format? Of course, that such a course has a very limited efficiency actions. And its only result will be a progressive displacement of the Russian Federation from India United States, Japan and other stakeholders. Meanwhile, taking into account the constantly growing importance of New Delhi in the international arena and in the global economy, it’s time to peel the alarm and take immediate corrective measures errors. Moreover, one of the main problems is that the Russian Federation is now virtually no reliable, strong militarily and economically allies. Given the constantly rising level of tension in international relations and the increasingly clear danger recent world war, the question of the political-military alliance with India becoming a critical principle.

In this situation, the only solution is to turn an immediate Russian foreign policy in the direction of axis formation Moscow — New Delhi. How to read the classics, like the death of procrastination. Potential of Russian-Indian cooperation is a very significant amount. If we talk about the position of India itself, it continues to show readiness for the steps. Since March 21, the official New Delhi announced its intention to discuss with Russia the possibility of signing an agreement on comprehensive economic cooperation with the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Head of the Eurasian Department of the Foreign Ministry of India Ajay Bisariya said: «The Free Trade Agreement TC and India to a large extent will allow to increment the volume of trade between India and Russia.» So Makarov, our country has a unique opportunity to reinvigorate the Russian-Indian cooperation. If this first step will stand true strategic plan developed by the creation of the axis of Moscow — New Delhi, the alliance itself 2-historically and politically close to the majestic powers will have a direct impact on the entire history of the world coming.

Artem Ivanovo

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