Significant deterioration in the economic situation is still ahead

Tsigankov"Now, May 11, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko held a meeting" on the results of socio-economic development of the country for the first quarter and the implementation of the 2007 forecast. "Lukashenko admitted that This year the economy began to show bad trend. First, this decrease the effectiveness of management and production growth. Leonid and what your opinion, the most important challenges of the economy now? "
Zlotnikau"The main thing — low production efficiency. For instance, to export their agricultural products to one million dollars for its production of various equipment necessary to import 720 thousand dollars. To support this inefficient economy, banks in the past year increment financing production in half. To find the funds for this lending, they borrowed abroad about 650 million dollars "
Tsigankov"The negative balance of foreign trade products in the first quarter amounted to 659 million dollars, while for the first quarter of last year, the balance was positive. How can you explain?"
Zlotnikau"In 1-x, the growth of imports energoelementov. Vo-2, the upcoming deterioration of competitiveness of our products. For example, decreased income from the export of our TVs, they began to take less than half than a year back, refrigerators, etc. . "
Manyanok"Belarusian management hitherto not determine the economic model, and continues to maintain that the economy, which was created in the Russian era. While continuing to manage the same Russian ways, nothing decent is not expected.
As for the deficit .. Fundamentally changed the conditions of supply of petroleum and petroleum product exports from Belarus. Without looking at any aspirations of government to make suitable rules for tolling oil, this has not yet happened. Increased gas prices, Belarus no longer exporting electricity from already lost $ 100 million. Togo "offshore", which was created last year, is now gone. "
"The ability to maintain current levels of growth and is"
Tsigankov"Our fiscal policies should maintain social orientation," — said Alexander Lukashenko now. Whether it is possible, taking into account the new challenges for the Belarusian economy, preserve the existing standard of living? "
Zlotnikau"The ability to maintain and increase the current level is. This fundamental change in economic policy. Necessary to open up the economy, reduce the supply price (cheapest kind dapustsivshy import supply) to promote investment multinationals make the business environment .."
Tsigankov"Enough liberal program that Lukashenko and it has responded by saying -" I warn the government that these liberal manners, as in Russia, we do not work. "
Zlotnikau"Well then, I see no way out. Belarus has not yet felt the deterioration. Configurations from economic criterion is only the beginning. A year later, the votes of the necessary configuration in economic policy will be more"
"Significant deterioration of the situation has not yet happened, it is yet to come"
Manyanok"Output — this overarching systemic economic reforms. Belarusian bureaucrats almost all already understand, and there are already some suggestions. For example, they say the abolition of long" golden share ".
But here I agree with Leonid Konstantinovich that significant deterioration of the situation has not yet happened, it is still ahead. I recall that for natural gas we pay only 55 percent of the cost, and we rise in price here have not yet felt.
Take beer branch. Parish Russian beer on the Belarusian market increased a couple of times, and bureaucrats understand it must increase the competitiveness of the industry … "
Tsigankov"And just bureaucrats can again raise the duty on Russian beer ..".
Manyanok"No, hardly, keep in mind Belarus requested a loan to the Russian Federation — one and a half billion dollars. In the coming Time will created a joint venture with "Beltransgaz" and Belarus received the first tranche (625 million dollars) for the sold 12.5% stake in "Beltrangaz." And the situation will improve a little budget, and able to conduct the same policy slightly continue. "
"They are trying to respond to new challenges old ways"
Tsigankov"Can these funds management push Belarus to further postpone the idea of the need for reform?"
Manyanok"Belarus should already 2 months for gas supplies about 360 million dollars. For the half it will be about 500 million dollars. So it will be some offset. Wonder Belarus turns to Russia for a loan. Indeed reserves funding there is, you can take loans foreign banks.
But most importantly — no fundamentally configurations in economic policy we are not looking, they try to respond to new challenges old ways. "
Zlotnikau"Oh very worn funds, which gave out the last years. For example, the construction industry, we we see, that in this area impossible to increase production volumes, if not updated production assets, and increased wages to employees who are willing to work abroad for huge amounts of money.
Government can support the standard of living at the expense of foreign loans, privatization of some companies, the growth of purchasing a cheap imported goods from other countries. Management can support the existence of this reform the economy without even one or two years, but later we find ourselves in a worse position — an inefficient economy and many external debt. "

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