The last thing that could be cut off from Belarus in exchange for oil and gas — is the position of President

"See, that’s OK with us, and the control has the situation"
Tsigankov: "For what Alexander Lukashenko called journalists and conducted a large-scale press conference with heads of Belarusian mass media? As you know, politicians usually they say what they have to say and not what they have asked. What’s new first wanted to say Lukashenko Belarusian electorate Belarusian population? What mood do you think, prevailed in the statements of the President of Belarus? Please Klaskouski Alexander. "
Klaskouski: "If we talk about any formal grounds, it was exactly a year before the inauguration, started the third period, but I think that this is not about any calendar moments even more so does not sound that summarizes the results of the year.
The main thing is that this year, I think, perfectly changed foreign policy context. And it worked, of course, the situation within the country and first in the economy, in the economic sphere. I mean oil and gas war with Russia. On the other side of the West, the EU has allocated its 12 recognized criteria. Some analysts forhad read about, that Belarus would be possible between the hammer and the anvil.
And in general it must be said that this year became significantly more intense adverse external information flows, in other words the Kremlin as a result of this great quarrel started such a huge public relations campaign began zakidatstsa different versions of different scenarios Kremlin aimed at the replacement of power here. In short, here are all these calls information was necessary to give a response.
But the answer, in my opinion, also initially consisted in such a PR plane, in other words the most important task was to say that everything is fine, all measured, as readaxis control feels pretty comfortable, has the situation. It sounded in the past couple of speeches public official favorite country.
That still regards any conceptual things concerning internal and external policy, then there is nothing fundamentally new has been sounded. In other words, if read very short, short, in the economic field and wholesale privatization of any meaningful reform will not be privatized point, the opposition, they say, is not ready to suggest something is true, and in the media sphere, too, to put it mildly, a large liberalization can not be expected. "
Tsigankov: "You already had read over this period oil and gas war with Russia. Just last month, Alexander Lukashenko gave an interview with Reuters and the Ukrainian and Russian journalists, and now he decided to meet with Belarusian. Maybe it indicates that the internal listener he is more important than the outer? "
Klaskouski: "Certainly, since, in the 1-x, sociological studies show that there has been a new trend in public sentiment. Already no such pro-Soviet optimism and belief in the next day. Lude bristled and waits for the worst.
Later real reasons. Came down wages, on the one hand. On the other hand, an increase in prices, rates utilities. People did it all feels. He is not so much on any promotional abstracts draws attention, but on its own wallet. And here the trends are not the best start. And that’s why you need to clarify the audience to hold such a psychic session here and justify that everything is fine and even comfortable. "
Tsigankov: "Thank you, Alexander. Dynko Andrew, what would you have considered the most basic statements in the current Alexander Lukashenko?"
Dynko "big sensation was really the role of editors of several independent media and their ability to ask questions. Well, the most mysterious phrase was the answer to the question just the editor of" Narodnaya Volya "or preparing a successor. Alexander Lukashenko, when I remember correctly, said: "As a successor, it will prepare itself malehankih. Unique person grows. "I think that this phrase will be the main theme in the" absmoktvannya "media disk imaging, and many will crush for himself over her head.
On the other hand, what was also slightly suddenly in the current press conference that contrasted with a number of past performances, there was a general tons. He was calm, relaxed, even in something, conciliatory. Strongest memory such relaxed, with jokes dialogue, which entered Syaredzich and Joseph Alexander Lukashenko. Of these are not new to contradictory statements that nothing will change much in the country that, for sure, the authorities considered probable for them to maintain an independent press in today abkarnanym isolated form and a couple of years, and that the financial situation is pretty good, not to change the economic course . "
"In a political system in which we exist at the moment, no dialogue, in principle, unworkable"
Tsigankov: "If we say that the number of new claims was not, really was nothing new in relation to the issue of Alexander Lukashenko opposition. There were the same insults and humiliation in the opposition, talking about money, it about the unwillingness of the opposition to work for people and so on. At that moment, when in Vilnius more famous members of the opposition said that the main task of the opposition to fight for free elections, Alexander Lukashenko remains steadfast enough, says the society, that is not going to share power … "
Klaskouski: "Here there is a major world that sounded a little earlier during the performance of the official’s favorite seems to be on a vegetable factory. If there it was on the dialogue, it was said that here"these people, worst people in our society, write me letters. "" These people are the worst of our society "- this is a priori negative attitude, which was now again emphasized that, they say, they do not must be together, because the West will not pay funds.
In short, this set of conventional abstracts, in other words a priori control official is convinced that this opposition can not cook porridge, roughly speaking. And because I think that there will not be any progress. Especially since now that the opposition itself is not in the best condition, not very cohesive. As we know, at the same conference in Vilnius also in the foreground, as they all look the same between a compromise. Naturally, in such a state and the West somehow hard to include opposition to this proposed dialogue. "
Tsigankov: "Andrei Dynko, in the newspaper" Nasha Niva "not once heard such presentation creators, and in the comments that the dangers faced by Belarus as a country, the government and the opposition should continue at each other hand, experience in any matters act together. Answers Alexander Lukashenko and his now former statement or do not show that this idea is not very zhiznestoek? "
Dynko: "You see, while there will be a situation that the Belarusian head of the country on issues of Belarusian answers in Russian, no fundamentally configurations in Belarus will not. And until that time, until every 1st (where they were, in my opinion 17 people asked questions) Representatives of municipal media, local authorities will be pronounced in Russian, no configurations will not.
As for the dialogue, you know, everything, in my opinion, the application of the dialogue with the opposition — it was more tactical steps than real intentions. In brief as a political system in which we exist at the moment, no dialogue in principle impossible. This system does not provide for dialogue. It will fall apart, as the dialogue begins. "
Tsigankov: "A number of questions and the answers now at a press conference Alexander Lukashenko were related to relations with Russia. Alexander Lukashenko reiterated that Belarus will not be any region Russian Federation, no other power. At the same time, some expressed the belief perspektyvnastsi Union of Belarus and Russia. Coupled with the fact he again spoke out sharply enough that Our homeland defected to the m
arket approach in relations with Belarus, and said that the Belarusian government must prepare for the Russian side a list of what our homeland at the moment has to pay Belarus. Alexander, do you think that if it really will be manufactured and Belarus really matured to ensure that the bill in response. "

Klaskouski: "I think it is unlikely to be, as it sounded thesis now in a very reduced form. We remember the times when there were an interview with Reuters, the German journalist Rahr. Then more sharply is all praklyamavalasya. Currently, I seems foreign policy pendulum went in the other direction. supertask And presently little to appease the case with Russia, since in-1’s, it became clear that the West is not in a hurry to engage in dialogue without making at least the minimum of any criterion that democratization.
On the other hand, the search for other sources of energy — it is also very difficult task. Anyway, it will be more expensive than getting from Russia oil and gas. In short, you need to somehow be reconciled, we have to somehow pacify the situation. And there are a couple good reasons. In 1-x, coming one, later another electoral campaign in Russia and plus, as usual, treacherous imperialism benefits — Americans are willing to put their missiles in the Czech Republic and Poland. And on this, too, can play. And naturally, the Belarusian side is also a chance to raise their quotes again in the sight of Russian elites as a strategic bridgehead. "
Tsigankov: "That’s about it and read Alexander Lukashenko, saying that we do not miss any tanks through its countryside, and Belarus — the only way to protect Russia from the West. Andrew, do you think, what are the next steps in the official Belarusian relations with Russia? Indeed if, as Alexander said Klaskouski happen if mitigation Alexander Lukashenko will exhibit the economic expense of, the political and the other? "
"The last thing could would destroy in Belarus in exchange for oil and gas — is the position of the president "
Dynko: "If it was for that show, then surely, this account has already been exposed to. I think that there is nothing in particular to expose us. Belarus in recent decades, as the philosopher wrote Valery Bulgakov, was such as" whore , "she sold her freedom, independence in exchange for Russian oil and gas. Russian subsidies virtually guaranteed that the Belarusian government will be destroyed culture. But in return for this Russification, for liquidation of state identity Our homeland generously thanked gas. And here at the moment Belarus gets to the point where almost nothing to eradicate. Subsequent, the only thing that could destroy in Belarus in exchange for oil and gas — is the position of President. Well, I do not think that someone in Belarus on it goes. "
Klaskouski: "I still wish to emphasize that not realize the aspirations of some politicians and analysts that will start a dialogue with the West. Since this issue is of course that the Belarusian president stands firmly on its own. It completely heartily states that perform Western demands — it hurt today’s political system, to which he would never go.
And here the strategy of waiting and hoping that the West will work some pragmatic preconditions, and there are also representatives of the respective bands it must decide how to strengthen energy security, confrontation of in this regard. Here’s hope that will work in Brussels in other Western capitals diplomatic, so to speak, reason. "
Dynko: "Please note that Lukashenko tried his best not to allocate the poor economic condition of the country, the lack of new problems and that the results of price increases energoelementy already overcome. Interestingly enough, to justify this, he cited the numbers that certainly do not correspond reality. So he, for example, stated that we have 55% of our turnover zabugornogo falls on EU countries. While this figure was less than in the past year, and this year in the first quarter, it still fell sharply because fell sharply oil exports.
In-2, he stated that we have a hundred percent loaded oil factory, but it is at odds with the last steps of the government, which desperately tries to force Russian tolling give oil refining, and contrary to what "Belorusneft" finished with start this year ulasnazdabytay oil exports in order to provide our oil factory. Had the impression that it’s mostly propaganda than a statement of facts. "

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