Navumchyk: "The other day in Vilnius ended a two-day conference" Positive candidacy Belarus and its people. "The conference was attended not only the leaders of the structures of the Political Council of the democratic forces, and regional activists, NGO representatives and expert public.
Analyzing the Vilnius conference, editor of the analytical bulletin BelaPAN Klaskouski Alexander noted that the opposition shifts the focus from street protests to "evolutionary process" or "peaceful path of modernization."
Vitaly, as such an adjustment strategy will be, in your opinion, the perceived opposition activists? "
Tsigankov: "I think the reaction would be different, and not always positive. Can already guarantee that the relatively negative reaction will be from the young activists of the first activists of" Young Front ", which just conducted unauthorized street protests.
In recent years, we see that the first specifically youth holds these shares, and often senior fellow opposition to them are not connected and do not contribute to holding shares informally from time to time even voiced their displeasure such activity youth.
Of the latter’s own contacts with young activists, I see that they express dissatisfaction with this decision. Many young recollection is that they in their struggle elders left alone with a regime that assistance from senior now they will not wait. "
Navumchyk: "I wish I could still discuss yesterday’s press conference Lukashenko. Recent months to be independent press wrote about turning Tipo Lukashenko — well, maybe not the face, and sideways — to Europe. Say, to make the relationship with Europe, he goes on usmotritelnye concessions to the opposition, even on March 25th, people are beaten or almost beaten. Yesterday’s press conference confirmed or refuted these findings? "
Tsigankov: "It seems that this press conference put such, I would have said, sneeringly point in history with some illusions. First, with the illusion that Lukashenko may take some compromise on a dialogue with the opposition and independent society.
That Lukashenko read this press conference and generally last weeks and months, indicating once again that no compromise will be. Here I can not agree with the views of some analysts that in general in the current political system is not feasible compromise government with the opposition. This system does not provide for a compromise: it just starts to fall apart when the dialogue will start.
Alexander Lukashenko yesterday read about the opposition the same insults that were heard before: no configurations in emphasis did not work. The same, for example, the words of a few hundred fighters, the list of which countries have, or that the opposition just a half thousand of those sympathizing with her. If such a small number, why these "thugs" as Lukashenko likes to say, to find some sort of compromise?
Another illusion was about the ability of a compromise with the West. Here just been speculation that Alexander Lukashenko will be required to go to such a compromise. But at a press conference Lukashenko again confirmed that no configurations in the political system will not allow it. According to Lukashenko, "we can not go on to change its own identity." Identity — is, as I understand, sazhanne political enemies in jail, crackdown on peaceful demonstrations … "
Navumchyk: "… Well, we note that Lukashenko is not desired to answer questions Seredich Belarusian, he again tried Belarusian words mocking context. Now — to the subject of relations with Russia, as it is in line with yesterday’s vymavlevvaetstsa Lukashenka’s press conference.
You need to take for the theorem that the relationship with the adjacent states main defining caveat — it’s not even the economy and security, defense. Specifically on these matters tied many other areas of bilateral relations. Specifically, the protection can bytsprychynayu most acute conflicts. Belarus’ relations with Russia — is no exception. And if you read about these relationships — that Lukashenko yesterday padkreslivv, Belarus remains the military, defense outpost in the western sector of the Russian Federation — not confirmed this, that in all conflicts Minsk still remains priklnny to Moscow? "
Tsigankov: "Of course, confirms. But, on the other hand, this is the last trump card Lukashenko — state that Belarus has never missed through its tanks on the Moscow area (typical in some places — near Paris or near Berlin — already collected columns of tanks).
The strongest Lukashenko bargaining chip in trade wars with Moscow — read that only Belarus guarantees the security of the Russian Federation in the western direction, so that Belarus is fundamental in strategic sense that for it again Our homeland must pay.
I have dual memory of expressions concerning Lukashenko Russia. With one side, Lukashenko once again criticized the Kremlin’s decision to go to market relations with Belarus, but, on the other hand, he is willing to mix, wanted to show that he is willing to negotiate and willing to tolerate a certain sense that he would not stand for any bills or Russian military bases, for anything else. In other words, on Thursday expressions were much softer than, for example, in the same interview today "Reuters" or Political analyst Alexander Raru.
Also it should be noted quite entertaining answer to the never-ending question of whether Lukashenko wants to participate in political life in Russia. This is such a euphemism, in reality it is about whether it wants to be a control of.
Lukashenko responded Our homeland that such a tremendous country, that whatever can manage everything. These words were spoken by Lukashenka’s almost resentfully. As a person who used to assign at least some bureaucrat, even a small level, as it can allow something happened in the country is, what he can not keep under control. Here sounded most natural wonder and disappointment: possible manage such a large state? "