Will the Minsk agree with Brussels?

Participants: Deputy Minister of the last foreign minister of Belarus Andrei Sannikov and political analyst Andrei Fedorov.
Valery Karbalevich, "Alexander Lukashenko shortly stated many times that we are ready to engage in dialogue with the European Union, but without showing us any criterion — no pressure from Europe is unacceptable to make any concessions on the issue of democracy and human rights, we will not go.
But for the disk imaging, which unveiled the sovereign Sannikov, returning from Brussels Forum, in relations between Minsk and Brussels something is up.
How it can be called: dialogue, secret negotiations, political bargaining? And how does this fit with the official statements Lukashenko? That offer the Belarusian authorities, and that they wish to get for it? "
Andrei Sannikov: "It can not be called a dialogue. Surely there conditions put forward by the EU and Belarus have any suggestions aimed at, so consider these conditions. Would I referred this process clarifying the position. For a democratic society it is bad that it happens behind the scenes asking.
Economic situation in Belarus has not improved — in this case, prospects here are unfavorable. And the EU could assist in economic development and reforms. Brussels is interested in configurations in Belarus. But it is hampered by the political regime in Belarus.
And hard to impose that the EU can begin full-scale dialogue with the Belarusian authorities and renounce its principles. While in Europe there are certain individuals or even groups who are interested in such a dialogue. But Lukashenko policy for many years has made strong barriers along the way. "
Andrei Fedorov: "What that at the moment occurs in relations between Belarus and the EU, I would have referred to intelligence. Fact, that at the moment as before in Minsk develop not very good business with Moscow. Although Lukashenko made gestures toward Russia, but, apparently, without much result. Because you need to find the exit in the West.
In relations between Minsk and Brussels will be tough bargaining. Belarus seeks not relinquish their positions, but instead to get the win. I doubt that the Belarusian management will mitigate the political situation.
In this case, the main task of the Belarusian diplomacy at the moment is not how to achieve business improvement with the EU on a broad front, and all just agree, that Brussels did not exclude Belarus from the Generalized System of Preferences and lifted sanctions against Belarusian officials. Besides control of Belarus is not ready for market reforms. Because I do not expect breakthroughs. "
Concessions can go official Minsk in negotiations with the EU?
Karbalevich: "It seems the Belarusian authorities have a certain margin of maneuver. Soon ends the sentence some political prisoners — namely Statkevich Sevyarinets. Their release can declare step towards the West. Electoral legislation can and do change.
You could also just be a moratorium on the death penalty, to introduce the post of the Commissioner for Human Rights to appoint, for example, Kastsyan. How far in terms of concessions ready to go official Minsk in negotiations with the EU? "
Sannikov: "Time is working at the moment against Belarus management. Because an attempt to engage in games of which you says instead of real democracy does not lead to an improvement in relations with the EU. Asks Europe to release all political prisoners and stop political repression. Perfectly She sees these maneuvers, used them for many years.
There are forces in the EU who are considering the ability to lift restrictions on communication with the Lukashenko regime. This first in Lithuania, Latvia and Poland also.
But there are other forces that are more stringent actions against the Lukashenko regime. For example, to show determination in Europe, there are proposals to impose sanctions on not a few 10’s, and several thousand of Belarusian officials who are guilty of human rights violations. "
Fedorov: "The concessions on human rights contrary to the nature of today’s Belarusian authorities. Because Minsk will do samples to fool the European public, do cosmetic steps. Because it would be great, that management has made the EU a small structure that would stalking situation in Belarus. "
How very interested Brussels in normalizing relations with Belarus?
Karbalevich: "And can it happen that in order to remove Belarus from the field of geopolitical impact of, the EU can close your eyes to violations Human Rights in the country? Is he ready to take the simulation for real democratization democratization? "
Sannikov: "This is a danger. Belarusian authorities on this and pinned their hopes. But the EU position during oil and gas crisis was different. Befriending undemocratic regime — is not only renounce the principles, and to create a task based on the beliefs of international security.
But the EU believes that at this point the prospects for configurations in Belarus is better than before. Europe needs a democratic neighbor. "
Fedorov: "I think quite a close eye on human rights challenges the EU can not. After all, it would be a betrayal of the principles on which the European Alliance built.
But there is another danger. Strong pressure from the West can push Lukashenka to a union with Russia. Because the EU needs to find some middle ground.
Opening the office of the European Commission in Minsk will allow the EU to do unchanging monitoring the situation in Belarus. If Minsk give any promises, but will not follow them, then again can be sanctioned.
Probable recovery turn-based strategy. Step one side, step on the other side. Thus, these steps may be shallow. "

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