Alexander Rahr: Lukashenko wants to balance the effects of RF exposure to the European Union

Drakakhrust"Last week, were released early and Paul Seviarynets Statkevich also Catherine Sadovskaya convicted of insulting the president. This week, members of the" Young Front "contrary to expectations, were sentenced to fines, not imprisonment. Also on this week were discontinued criminal proceedings against five youth activists.
Namely the West and Europe called the release of political prisoners of mandatory condition to start the dialogue with Minsk, dialogue, intrigued in which Alexander Lukashenko clearly expressed first of this year, namely, in a interview with Alexander Raru. Official Minsk does not recognize the existence in the country palitzekav, presently MFA states that these steps — not a concession to the West. But the steps are made. Europe or count these steps enough to start a dialogue on the issues that worry Minsk? "
Rahr"You have to wait and see what the EU decides in general. From Belarus management required some steps in this direction. However, it was the release Kozulin, but at the same time, the European Union and the German first starshynyavannya quite clearly said that he is ready to go with Belarus constructive dialogue may even reconsider certain positions, if they are the right signals from the Belarusian leader.
I believe that these signals come. They almost all latecomers, as the German EU starshynyavanne rapidly completed. But they still indicate that the Belarusian side is willing to do business with the EU. We all are aware that during the privatization, which in Belarus at the moment to begin, the Russian capital, Russian oligarchs will have an advantage in Belarus. And I think that Lukashenka wants to balance the effects of RF exposure to the European Union. And for that he needs to go to a certain political warming, which he does. However, not under pressure and rather peculiar, but I think that the EU can recognize these signals. "
Drakakhrust"Earlier, West Europe faced the problem — what to do, if Minsk did not respond to any hard nor Myagenkaya approaches. At the moment, this problem has changed shape, Minsk showed that he reacts to external impact. And what to do? Continue to put pressure, ensuring implementation of all the preparatory criterion benefit Minsk still susceptible, but risking that the Belarusian authorities will take away all the concessions reversed, arguing that Europe will not be satisfied with anything the least than the overthrow of the regime? Minsk reward worth some "carrot", pointing out that over the next steps towards the gingerbread will be huge? "
Rahr"I can only read about that process, which was a natural in the EU during the German starshynyavannya. Germany specifically focused on the latest European Ostpolitik, new approaches to individual countries of post-Soviet space, including Belarus. While Union ran a country such as Germany and the end of June it will still rule, it was not that, that the power to impose democracy in the former Soviet Union.
The EU has started to depart from previous patterns when demands were made and stated — or so, or not at all. Evidence of this latest band we can see the relations with the countries of Central Asia, especially Uzbekistan. Andijan problem obviously has not been removed, but the European Union under the leadership of Germany went on to cancel the sanctions that have been imposed on this country. So Belarus fits into this context.
Here we should add that Germany seeks to maintain a strategic partnership with Russia, as well as certain forms of neighborhood with that state as Belarus, unlike some other countries that such type of agreement with Belarus reject. "
Drakakhrust"Today Belarus maneuvers between Russia and Europe occur against significant deterioration of relations between Moscow and Brussels, exacerbations, which are not directly connected with Belarus. Increased or reduced in connection with the official Minsk chances to reach an agreement with Europe? Not happen in Europe in this situation be tempted to snatch Belarus, whatever it was, from the Russian sphere of impact? "
Rahr"There were some arguments strategic disposition in January this year, when between Minsk and Moscow came the oil conflict. But it took four months, and everything fell into place. European Union realized that Lukashenko will not absolutely stop their policy towards the European Union, it is almost everything remains committed to pro-Russian course.
In my opinion, now you can read about the brand new reconciliation between Moscow and Minsk. EU and Minsk is not made the necessary strategic steps towards each other, so could talk about the sudden change in the situation or warming. I do not think anyone in the European Union» sur seriously believe which can be oppose Belarus Moscow. Even on Ukraine in the EU many illusions in this respect is gone.
If you do not think strategically, the EU will expect to welcome any configuration in Belarus in the positive direction and, realizing that Lukashenka now firmly holds the power to demonstrate that he is willing to have a dialogue with him, but on condition that he fulfills certain requirements, which distinguishes the European Union.
First assignment, which we have at the moment say — concessions regarding the opposition — in the long term can lead to a dialogue with the opposition. It seems to me probable, provided that steps will be fair and not just tactical. "
Drakakhrust"Interview Raru Lukashenko was perhaps the peak demonstration of readiness of the Belarusian ruler closer to Europe. Is there memories that point to this general already lost, regardless of the concessions that are ready to go Minsk?"
Rahr"You remember the interview with Alexander Lukashenko. I think it’s an interview that I took fits while January this year, when it was an unexpected confrontation between Belarus and Russia if the EU ponder that Europe will harsh energy crisis When things are extraordinary measures to diversify energy supply flows.
At the moment, the situation calmed down. Lukashenko saw that in order to go one hundred percent to the West, he will have even more serious quarrel with Russia, he is not ready due to economic dependence on Russia and due to the fact that it is contrary to the interests of the elite and more part of the population that would not welcome such a sharp move away from Russia. On the other hand it obviously undermined hopes the second part of the self same elite and opposition circles that just pinned their hopes on the fact that the conflict with Russia will help the country, Lukashenko constructively alter the course of foreign policy and bring the country to the European Union.
We beheld certain steps towards the creation of in the direction of new forms of cooperation in the energy sphere. Our homeland in this won on which it pinned its hopes in January. A Belarus braked half way in their own quest to make the case with Brussels and establish new strategic neighborly affairs with the European Union. This chance was during the German EU starshynyavannya. German starshynyavanne was ready for a huge compromise, it seems to me, and to different forms of dialogue even with Lukashenko. "

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