Europe’s reaction to concessions to Minsk?
Drakakhrust: "Last week, were released early and Paul Seviarynets Statkevich also Catherine Sadovskaya convicted of insulting the president. This week, members of the" Young Front "contrary to expectations, were sentenced to fines, not imprisonment. Also this week were terminated criminal proceedings against five youth activists.
Namely the West and Europe called the release of political prisoners of mandatory condition to start the dialogue with Minsk, dialogue, intrigued in which Alexander Lukashenko expressed unequivocally first this year, namely, in a interview with Alexander Raru. Official Minsk officially recognizes the existence of political prisoners in the country, at the moment MFA states that these steps — not a concession to the West. But the steps are made. Europe or count them enough to start a dialogue on the issues that worry Minsk? Here is the answer to this question Alexander Rahr. "
Rahr: "We need to wait and see what the EU decides in general. From Belarus management required some steps in this direction. However, it was the release Kozulin, but at the same time, the European Union and the German first starshynyavannya quite clearly said that he is ready to go with Belarus constructive dialogue may even reconsider certain positions, if they are the right signals from the Belarusian leader.
I believe that these signals come. They almost all latecomers, as the German EU starshynyavanne rapidly completed. But they still indicate that the Belarusian side is willing to do business with the EU. We all are aware that during the privatization, which in Belarus at the moment to begin, the Russian capital, Russian oligarchs will have an advantage in Belarus. And I think that Lukashenka wants to balance the effects of RF exposure to the European Union. And for that he needs to go to a certain political warming, which he does. However, not under pressure and rather peculiar, but I think that the EU can recognize these signals. "
Drakakhrust: "Andrei Dynko, do you think that the West considers the steps that I have read enough to at least begin a dialogue with Minsk?"
Dynko: "It is hard to give an answer to this question, since we do not know the precise content of the agreements that have been verbally discussed during a meeting with Pyatkevich Kremer. Here in the margins they say that such arrangements were, namely, it was said that the condition was so Minsk freed all political prisoners before June 10, and in this case, may not be withdrawn trade preferences for Belarus. I also think that the attitude of the U.S. and Europe may be different. U.S. policy is usually more pragmatic, whereas Europeans more importance on moral and humanitarian nuances. "
Drakakhrust: "For I will remind our listeners that David Kramer — senior U.S. State Department. Not so long ago he visited Belarus and met namely, the deputy head of the presidential administration Natalya Pyatkevich.
Vadim Dubnov, and your eyes — Brussels count those couple small steps Minsk enough to start a conversation? Rahr’s sire was that the main condition was the release Kozulin, and he as before behind bars. "
Dubnov: "I do not think it can cause some fundamentally configuration. Believe that the West thinks — Lukashenko only just beginning to rebrand some of Belarus. Perapazytsyyanavats He tries to Belarus in the triangle of Russia-Belarus-West. From a formal point of view, I think, that the West would welcome these samples were sluggish, but will not fundamentally steps. wait West will continue this trend. "
Gingerbread and whips
Drakakhrust: "Oh, so just about the continuing trend. Earlier West Europe faced the problem — what to do if Minsk did not respond to any hard nor Myagenkaya approaches. Currently, this problem has changed shape, Minsk has shown that he is outside impact reacts. And what to do? Continue to press, ensuring implementation of all the preparatory criterion benefit Minsk still susceptible, but risking that the Belarusian authorities will take away all the concessions reversed, arguing that Europe will not be satisfied with anything the least than the overthrow of the regime? worth some reward Minsk "carrot", pointing out that over the next steps towards the gingerbread will be huge? Word Raru Alexander. "
Rahr: "I can only read about the process that was a natural in the EU during the German starshynyavannya. Specifically Germany focused on the latest European Ostpolitik, new approaches to individual countries of post-Soviet space, including Belarus. Yet ruled Union a country such as Germany and the end of June it will still rule, it was not that, that the power to impose democracy in the former Soviet Union.
The EU has started to depart from previous patterns when demands were made and stated — or so, or not at all. Evidence of this latest band we can see the relations with the countries of Central Asia, especially Uzbekistan. Andijan problem obviously has not been removed, but the European Union under the leadership of Germany went on to cancel the sanctions that have been imposed on the country. So Belarus fits into this context.
Here we should add that Germany seeks to maintain a strategic partnership with Russia, as well as certain forms of neighborhood with that state as Belarus, unlike some other countries that such type of agreement with Belarus reject. "
Drakakhrust: "Vadim, and in your eyes, the West will solve this latest problem — keep the pressure, the risk of losing the achievements, or to make some steps forward, which read Rahr sire?"
Dubnov: "I think that the answer to these steps Lukashenko West zakonserviruem yourself sluggish favored mode without making any sudden moves. This is justified by the fact that the West has somehow got used to Belarus. Worst situation in Belarus, in the opinion of the West, will be gone. Belarus, in my opinion, is no longer a big problem for the EU. If Lukashenko will really do something sur» seriously, the West will make a couple of small steps forward. But it will be very small steps, and I believe that under the rule of Lukashenko, we do not see any revolutions in relations between the West and Belarus. "
Drakakhrust: "Andrew, do you agree with this opinion, that the West has lost all hopes for Belarus and made sure that it is not possible improvements until Lukashenko will remain in power? Or all the same kind of" carrot ", some" Gingerbread "Belarus will be given?"
Dynko: "Indeed, to Brussels at the moment there is a big problem. Or be by successive end up with Belarus, as Brussels sought to be in the near future, and this means that if you want to cancel trade preferences, as Belarus did not fulfill the criteria for their conservation. But on the other hand, if we remove trade preferences, while Brussels has no more effective method of pressure on Belarus. Leaving trade preferences have something to threaten.
I saw Brussels? He saw that has a very effective measures impact on Belarus. Only in recent years began to notice in Brussels Belarus, hitherto for evrabyurakratav it just was not. How began to notice how to get started, search for instruments of cooperation with civilian society, tools to support freedom of speech in Belarus, went straight reaction.
I suspect that an important impact on the decision of Brussels will also have to change the case of in Europe, parting with illusions about the continuation of Russian transition to democracy. And in this sense I think that the battle for Belarus will increase. "
Addressees charges adresok RF?
Drakakhrust: "This week, Alexander Lukashenko during a meeting with a delegation of Russian Siberian federal neighborhood came up with a set of new charges in the address of, thrown it as an attempt to absorb Belarus and stall union agreements. Whom, as they say, a message addressed to: of, so return or at least to keep the preferences of the West, to show that in Minsk there are other policy options, or to show what a terrible neighbor to the east is Belarus? These charges — are not new, but it is curious that they made against the background of these steps to meet the requirements Europe. Is there a definite link? Vadim ".
Dubnov: "I think they are certainly related. But I would not overestimate any pending vuzkapraktychnyh consequences of all these initiatives. I’ve read — Lukashenko begins to rebrand, change the form of Belarus. This first domestic political event, not calculated nor Moscow or Brussels. "
Drakakhrust: "Vadim, I interrupt you. You already second time used the word -" rebranding. "In your opinion, which brand, type it seeks what brand he wants to change for what?"
Dubnov: "Well, such brand euros Uzbekistan he wishes to change to a more glossy look. This is a common country with pavsuverennay democracy. A country that closer to Europe than to the Russian Federation, which tsaper Europe risks a. What we obviously men from the East we will be friends with Russia, but you do not think that we are as our homeland. We have a democracy, we are ready to play by your rules, we are not going to dictate its will, as it makes our eastern neighbor. Here is a new accommodation in Europe. "
Drakakhrust: "And what’s the point of these new charges in the address of the Russian Federation? This should make memories for Europe?"
Dubnov: "Clearly. Again, this is first done for Belarus itself, so tsaper Belarus itself sees that its president, slightly changing their own style, change the model, at least verbally. And if you look past the sociological data Manaeva, it complies with the sentiments of Belarusians and newcomer Lukashenko, who is currently quite overpowered.
He asserts his authority specifically in this form.
First it mattersetsya for Belarus. The second — for Europe. I do not think it is directly connected with the privatization plans and some economic preferences, since I’m not sure what tomorrow will start Lukashenko real privatization. But sets a certain tendency in the hope that after a while begins to change something — he sets. As for the Russian Federation, then it is done in the third turn. After all, in the 1-x, Our homeland is not very intently listening to Lukashenko, habitually thinking that they weigh little. And in-2-x, y RF pretty problems throughout the CIS and Belarus fits into this node. "
Drakakhrust: "Andrei Dynko as you see, the charges of the address of, uttered by Lukashenko this week — they are either related to these indirect suggestions Europe as the release of prisoners?"
Dynko: "In these statements there was nothing new, these statements Belarusians heard already about four years. These statements Lukashenko has long needed. Integration with Russia was its main theme, and now he has to explain why this integration has not happened and is happening. At the same time remains the same need for maintaining economic Lukashenko in donations from Russia. vysokaaplochvanym He wants to remain a vassal of Russia, but with all this insurance against encroachments on their sovereignty.’s this complex needs and follows such a difficult form of explanations that we inhibition of integration should not be, but God forbid us to deepen integration, since then we’ve got a new girl there Chechnya. This message is repeated at the moment Belarusian propaganda very often. "
Drakakhrust: "Andrew, but in the overall context, it sounds like the conversation of the deaf. Lukashenko says — if you connect us, then you will get the latest Chechnya, and a day or two after which Putin answered — we will build a business in the energy sector are equally to all: Ukraine, Belarus and the Caucasus countries. They have that — they do not hear each other? "
Dynko: "Let us in this statement vchytaemsya Putin. Putin states that we treat all countries are equally: Armenia and Georgia to Belarus and Ukraine. But essentially Armenia receives Russian gas at 105 dollars per cubic meter, and Georgia, which closer to the Russian Federation — by twice higher prices. Both Ukraine and Belarus, which are also at a similar distance from the gas fields in Western Siberia, receive gas at very different prices. fact that Putin wants to seem modern politicians for the Western listener, nothing says about the realities. "
Our homeland in the dialogue between Belarus and Europe: 3rd excessive or third, who rejoices?
Drakakhrust: "We have already mentioned a couple of times that today Belarus maneuvers between Russia and Europe take place against the backdrop of significant deterioration of relations between Moscow and Brussels, exacerbations, which are not directly connected with Belarus. Increased or reduced in connection with the official Minsk chances to reach an agreement with Europe? not happen in Europe in this situation be tempted to snatch Belarus, whatever it was, from the Russian sphere of impact? "
Rahr: "There were some arguments strategic disposition in January this year, when between Minsk and Moscow came the oil conflict. But after four months, and everything fell into place. European Union realized that Lukashenko will not completely stop their policy towards the European Union, it almost everything remains committed to pro-Russian course.
In my opinion, now you can read about the brand new reconciliation between Moscow and Minsk. EU and Minsk is not made the necessary strategic steps towards each other, so could talk about the sudden change in the situation or warming. I do not think anyone in the European Union» sur seriously believe which can be oppose Belarus Moscow. Even on Ukraine in the EU many illusions in this respect is gone.
If you do not think strategically, the EU will expect to welcome any configuration in Belarus in the positive direction and, realizing that Lukashenka now firmly holds the power to demonstrate that he is willing to have a dialogue with him, but on condition that he fulfills certain requirements, which distinguishes the European Union.
First assignment, which we have at the moment say — concessions regarding the opposition — in the long term can lead to a dialogue with the opposition. It seems to me probable, provided that steps will be fair and not just tactical. "
Drakakhrust: "Andrew, and what is your outlook? Samara Russia-EU summit began catchy demonstration of worsening relations. Could it increase the temptation to pull out of Europe Belarus Russian sphere of impact? What had previously read about Rahr sovereign Uzbekistan. So Andijan massacre — it nightmare, but the pressure on Tashkent from the West led to the fact that Uzbekistan has entered into a contract on the CIS Collective Security Treaty. And with all this won? "
Dynko: "Such a regime that currently exist in Minsk, can not be integrated into Europe. Snatch Belarus Russian sphere of influence — in other words, change the mode of government in this country, to make democratic Belarus. In this sense, at the moment when the West realized in what direction moves Our homeland and what gegemanistskiya goal for myself to put Moscow in Europe, we can expect in the medium and long term, strengthen the struggle for Belarus. "
Drakakhrust: "Andrew, I interrupt you. You have said that Belarus is not enough democratic and because … She’s not democratic to join the European Union. But in order to fall within the scope the impact of the West, generally speaking, democracy is optional. Same example of Uzbekistan . Nobody is going to take the European Union. But wrest from Russian sphere of its influence, someone is going. In the form in which it is. "
Dynko: "You can not associate Belarus and Uzbekistan. Belarus — this Eastern European country, and Uzbekistan — Asian. Addition of Uzbekistan — a country rich in oil and gas, which in Belarus.
In the West, do not think in terms of "gathering lands", which thought in Russia. Why Lukashenko has huge economic subsidies from Moscow and could not count on huge economic subsidies from Europe in exchange for political loyalty simply? Since Moscow think in terms of "gathering lands." And Brussels is it not necessary.
But the debate is quite abstract. It seems not only in Berlin, but even the European Commission realized that Lukashenko will do exactly as many steps in the game with the West, as he needs to blackmail Moscow. And no more step. That’s why the problem — what to do with Belarus, which step Brussels can alleviate the plight of political prisoners in Belarus in this situation — it is a difficult question. If the Europeans wrong signal Minsk — in bullpen fall another 20 people will be served if successful signal — will wrest from prison under torture snatch two more people. Such a solution is from time to time to take more complicated than a decision on Karimov.
Yet there is one thing. In Belarus, a powerful democratic opposition. In Belarus, bold, extensive civilian society that stubbornly b» etsya for a democratic European choice of Belarus. And what we have in Uzbekistan — Karimov and Islamist forces that oppose him, and no civilian society. In Belarus, hitherto once a year for street demonstrations go 10s thousand people. And in Uzbekistan — 12 people. "
Drakakhrust: "Vadim, and what is your outlook: against bad relations with Russia or the EU will try to conduct business with Belarus as well as he tries to maintain its relatively Uzbekistan?"
Dubnov: "No, I think that the EU action game will not keep. And it is justified knowledge that what game is Lukashenko himself. This game is painfully simple to construct, but very hard to implement. This is to try to overcome the risk of political dependence on Moscow at full economic dependence. At the time of worsening relations with Russia Lukashenko gives a signal to the West that with all that we almost all dependent on the Russian Federation, we are ready to be an independent state. But I do not think the West will play intensely, it will just follow as dystantsyyuetstsa Minsk from Moscow.
In my opinion, the West ran into standby mode that will be after Lukashenko. I think it’s in a strategic sense and the West cares most interested. That transformation after Lukashenko was smooth, without excesses that can be fully. In this sense, I agree with the employee Dynko that Belarus — Uzbekistan is not in all respects for you-no gas, no real Karimov. This is a completely different story. In economic terms, it can motivate the West only as a part of a large transit area, while not the only and not exclusive, but quite fascinating. And the West will be at certain moments to fill transit issues in terms of the problems that they do Moscow. But it will not fundamentally character. Belarus will be the same tranzytseram which was previously — excellent. Will not — will find other ways. The West has a lot of options, unlike Russia and Belarus, and he can afford for themselves passively waiting. "
Lost chance, which was not
Drakakhrust: "Interview Raru Lukashenko was perhaps the peak demonstration of readiness of the Belarusian ruler closer to Europe. Is there memories that point to it at all is lost, regardless of the concessions that are ready to go to Minsk?" Word Raru sovereign. "
Rahr: "You remembered the interview with Alexander Lukashenko. I think it’s an interview that I took fits while in January this year, when there was an unexpected confrontation between Belarus and Russia if the EU moved brains that Europe will severe energy crisis, when made extraordinary measures to diversify energy supply flows.
At the moment, the situation calmed down. Lukashenko saw that in order to absolutely go to the West, he will have even more serious quarrel with Russia, he is not ready due to economic dependence on Russia and due to the fact that it is contrary to the interests of the elite and much of the population that would not welcome such a sharp move away from Russia. On the other hand it obviously undermined hopes the second part of the self same elite and opposition circles that just pinned their hopes on the fact that the conflict with Russia will help the country, Lukashenko constructively alter the course of foreign policy and bring the country to the European Union.
We beheld certain steps towards the creation of in the direction of new forms of cooperation in the energy sphere. Our homeland in this won on which it pinned its hopes in January. A Belarus braked half way in their own quest to make the case with Brussels and establish new strategic neighborly affairs with the European Union. This chance was during the German EU starshynyavannya. German starshynyavanne was ready for a huge compromise, it seems to me, and to different forms of dialogue even with Lukashenko. "
Drakakhrust: "Vadim, you agree with the sovereign Rahr, the chance to improve relations between Minsk and Brussels lost regardless of the fact that Minsk will do?"
Dubnov: "It seems to me that such did not have a chance. Was some game in anticipation of such a chance. Both the West and Belarus were interested in, so that such an illusion persisted. But the character models such Lukashenko chance excluded. And even Currently, when it seems that Lukashenko is ready for some warming, convergence and constructive dialogue with Europe, the chance that neither increased nor decreased, a game that Lukashenko is only in their own interests and their own political purposes. ‘Cause I did not overestimate waiting sur» no serious configurations and even retrospective evaluation of this chance. It states only that the West and Lukashenko signed an agreement on certain non-aggression until the era when Lukashenko in Belarus completed. "
Drakakhrust: "Andrew’s sovereign Rahr Vadim and they say that the chance to improve relations not. Then" baby "question: Why then Lukashenko releases prisoners and softens adjudications? He relies on something."
Dynko: "With regard to Belarus’ rapprochement with Europe, no one at the moment — either in Minsk or in Brussels, has no illusions about this. Minsk talking only about whether to remain in the country a few 10’s of millions of dollars that country earns due to the presence of trade preferences. And in Europe the maximum of Brussels that counts — it’s a symbolic dialogue on the opportunity to meet and talk to the Belarusian bureaucrats on the one hand and, on the other hand — somehow ease the condition of civilian society in Belarus . Indeed it is only about whether or turn in Belarus 3-5 more people to wrest from the bullpen to freedom, or alternatively get in jail for 5-10 people. Here are a few human destinies here at the moment is at stake. "