P.Sheremet Belarusian revolution will take place in two steps

Drakakhrust: "In late May, was arrested the chairman of" Belneftekhim "Alexander Borovsky. First May Alexander Lukashenko has sent retired manager of the Minsk region Nikolai Domashkevich. Eventually, almost a few days back the information appeared on the arrest of high-ranking officials of the KGB. Interesting to note that Information about these arrests was publicly announced Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs, and later the KGB also publicly denied it the deputy head of the Interior Ministry.
What do these do? Or their coincidence in time — usually casual, and they have essentially routine nature: Borovsky — not first arrested director Domashkevich — not the first filmed "vertikalschik." Either of these actions — an indicator of any significant configurations in the Belarusian peremptory class or component attempts to prevent these changes? "
"Arrest Borowski directly, in my opinion, is associated with Kanaplyou"
Sheremet: "I would not be treated to the latest arrests as something extraordinary. And statements that" ice is broken "seem to me very brave. Though we can not exclude that we look to the period of heightened tension inside the Belarusian authorities. I think a loss of balance surrounded by Lukashenko, and at the moment through the Belarusian president’s own security forces trying to balance this somehow return. Was obvious bias towards Konopleva, while in the cash part because arrest Borowski directly, in my opinion, is associated with Kanaplyou.

"Kanaplyou really increased in the last year or two … and it obviously did not like the" siloviki ".

Kanaplyou really increased in the last year or two. He does not hide its own commercial projects and does not hide that lobbied some strong business proposal. And it obviously does not like the "siloviki" and Naumov, and Sukharenka and even Shejman that are also associated with certain business groups, are sitting quietly under a broom, bayachysya anger Lukashenko. A Kanaplyou of a personal relationship with him, has permitted himself to overstep certain limits. These arrests — the result of what was broken inside the balance of the Belarusian authorities. "
Drakakhrust: "It is surprising enough that the purpose for the post vacated by Domashkevich Leonid Krupets, Lukashenko said that while the situation and asks Myagenkaya more control." I proceeded from the fact that Krupets — an ordinary man after a hard style Nikolai Fedorovich. Krupets — more Myagenkaya but assertive. "As I recall, there were never softness in Belarus positive quality control. Why such language?"
"The system loses its ability to influence the situation"
Sheremet: "It seems to me that the system loses its elasticity. This is the main feature of the present moment. Though what effect that makes Lukashenko causes unpredictable consequences. And in the economy and in politics system starts strasatstsa even rumors about any configurations. For example , what we would not have sent a note several years ago — the resignation of the 1st of governors, is now a raging torrent of different interpretations from what Domashkevich — specific soldier with the Lukashenko regime, to the fact that the villain has long been necessary to remove this office. It says about excessive nervousness inside peremptory elite.

"And maybe the Kremlin made a bet on anyone near Lukashenko? And so begins zandavanne inner circle."

Where to go? With Moscow? But Moscow is something not very willing to conduct dialogue with Lukashenko. Or maybe, the Kremlin made a bid for someone close to him? And so begins zandavanne this inner circle. And suddenly it Kanaplyou — successor, which relies on Moscow?
And can we turn from Moscow to Europe? Let’s here a little pashantazhuem Moscow and create some nice moves for Europe.
System loses its ability to influence the situation and rapidly rebuilt in accordance with the configuration of the test. That is the main feature of the current moment. And in this case it does not matter what a surprise can lead to sur eznaga» crisis» sur eznaga to the conflict. "
"There is no default in Belarus can not be"
Drakakhrust: "During the presentation said Leonid Krupets head of state made a rather unusual and fascinating statement." The worst problem — it is not the opposition, the worst — that the destabilization of the money market. "Moreover, Lukashenko referred to the economic crisis in Russia at the end of the last century. "Remember the 1998 default in Russia and as we came out of it seriously. God forbid prevent it our country. And to this we can say, going to the end of the last — earlier this year, when there was not enough resources, and if we threw our homeland known prepyadstviya "- said Lukashenko. Though these words Tipo indicated that the most risky step Belarusians by managing, experienced, Lukashenko said: "If we sell fewer products than imported into the country, then at some point we will collapse."
I know that the Belarusian bureaucrats are very painful when journalists or experts they say about the probability of default. Immediately in response to begin discussions about the lack of patriotism, provocation, etc. And some bureaucrats have rights here. Have since at least some money has crash except rest and mental base prediction model works here, which promotes self-realization. When millions of people believe that the banking system collapses or is about to fall and rush to remove deposits, it really falls. And here by the head of the country, the guarantor of the Constitution, the monetary system and the rest of the word says it. Why? "
Sheremet, "Lukashenko’s statement about the default incorrect terminology explained the Belarusian president. He feels that something nasty to happen, but it correctly describes. Any default in Belarus can not be, because the default — is the inability of the country to make their cash loan commitments on the outer or inner market. Belarus did not let any of the securities in which to invest for foreign investors or Belarusian citizens. So it will not default. That may be, it’s devaluation, while the precipitous devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, which has stood at the same level for a long time. And almost all of these stability — artificial.

"Lukashenko is preparing people to the fact that it promises to make payroll 500-600 bucks unworkable."

Financial situation of the last 2 years did not encourage the Belarusian ruble appreciated. Lukashenko, having lost a significant portion of revenues from the resale of oil Lukashenko, who is preparing for the privatization of their own company to get some money (and in my opinion, these funds can only be obtained from the Russian Federation), Alexander Lukashenko, who now wants to take a large loan from the Russian country — such Lukashenko prepares people to the fact that his social obligations, it promises to make payroll 500-600 bucks infeasible. He prepares an ideological base for stock sell nationality, the opposite of what he has always advocated.
But inwardly he feared this and unwilling to do so. This is what I read — the system has lost elasticity. If you save today’s economic management, then after some time the collapse is inevitable. If we begin from the liberalization in Lukashenko’s version and sell some pieces of state property, say, the Russians, or to borrow, hoping not to return them later — is also cause social tension and pressure from these investors.
So he sits and thinks that he did do, and what he read. Hence these contradictory statements and acts weird. "
"I do not believe in a palace coup in its purest form"
Drakakhrust: "Again, back to the wording of Lukashenka" The worst thing is not the opposition. " And in general, it is terrible for the government, according to its present state? And not perastseragaetstsa power that in a crisis situation and monasteries against the government will conduct its own factions, people like Borowski, Damashkevich, Semashko Sidorsky? "
Sheremet: "The situation is very difficult. Consider and even more so predict future actions — it nepriznatelnoe. It seems to me that the Belarusian revolution will take place in two steps.
I do not believe in a palace coup in Belarus in its pure form because the security forces since a leaked all spheres of life, they are subject to so aggressively will Lukashenko that none nomenklatura will not be able to hold a few days and if he goes into a state of real komplota. Because impetus to the revolution will be given across the street. Segodnyaschy elite that wishes to change Lukashenko will use the opposition — this marginal street opposition as a battering ram for the change of power.

"The impetus for the revolution will be given across the street. Segodnyaschy elite who wishes change Lukashenko will use the opposition as a battering ram to the change of power. "

And on the second step, it is clear that neither Milinkevich nor Lebedko, still less Vyachorka — none of them will not receive this power. It will again be in the hands of traditional Belarusian clan who ruled the country all these years.
How effective will this ram, as will be behave street opposition — it’s almost all is dependent on the forthcoming during this crisis. Whether it will overcome this crisis inside the Belarusian opposition, a new face instead Milinkevich Milinkevich himself or will change — there are many reasons and much difficult to make predictions. "

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