What are the prospects for resolving the Russian-American conflict on missile defense?

U.S. plans to locate in Poland and the Czech Republic elements of a missile defense system caused a sharp reaction from Russia. What is the meaning of this confrontation?
Likely a tough response to the role of Russia in Belarus on South American plans? What is the possibility of compromise between the merits of the U.S. and Russia this dilemma?
Valery Karbalevich: "All experts come to the conclusion that the Russian-American affairs soon aggravated. And the main factor of this aggravation is positioned U.S. zeal in Poland and the Czech Republic elements of a missile defense system (NMD).
In this issue faced different geopolitical interests, done a lot of PR moves smokescreen diplomatic measures. What is the real meaning of the deployment in Europe of U.S. missile parts? Why it caused such a reaction of the Russian Federation? "
Andrei Fedorov: "Indeed, the issue of missile defense is a major contradiction between the middle of other Russian and U.S..
Fact, that Americans, frightened by the possibility of the creation of the Iran nuclear weapons and delivery systems (at their already has missiles with a range up to 1300 km), try to protect themselves from terrorist, as they believe the country.
Obviously, one can argue, as this danger severe. But do not think that the U.S. it mattersare specifically. Simply, they were very scared September 11, 2001.
For the sake of the United States made a series of missile defense facilities in California, Alaska. And now going to put a radar in the Czech Republic and 10 interceptor missiles in Poland.
Our homeland is suggested that it makes specific military threat to its interests, and responds to the moment the best way. In my opinion, the Russian reaction is not entirely adequate.
After 10 missiles can not resist tyscham Russian warheads. And Russian missiles if they launch against the United States, do not fly through Europe and across the North Pole. And these South American interceptor missiles will move followed suit. But in order to intercept, their lacks speed.
It seems that the reaction control RF focused more on the domestic audience, to show the power of the Russian population. "
Karbalevich: "See that Moscow does not believe the U.S. argument, allegedly missile directed against Iran. Essentially, according to the Kremlin, it is aimed against Russia."
Kirill Koktysh: "In my opinion, both the United States and the Russian Federation this question is not in the military, and economic character. The United States is necessary for the sake of the military-industrial complex.
For RF main danger is not in the interceptors and radar using which can be receive Russian secrets. Putin noted that Russia will have to translate all radyeperamovy secrecy until the Urals. It asks a few billion dollars. Remember, what was the problem for the U.S. radar near Krasnoyarsk in the last years of the USSR.
This explains the answer of. It seeks to draw in cash loss Europe. Moscow threatens to withdraw from the contract on ordinary weapons. Then Europe will have to pay in order to monitor Russia’s actions in this area.
If the U.S. behold the danger posed by Iran, the profitable use of facilities in Azerbaijan. Because it is faster, the financial competitiveness, which took this form. "
Likely harsh response of Russia (with the role of Belarus) on South American plans?
Karbalevich: "Indeed, the reaction of the Russian Federation to the United States, these plans was tough. Can only mention Putin’s statement about peranatselvanne Russian missiles in the direction of European states.
And in the case of implementation of the hard option in the geopolitical field increases the role of Belarus. We are talking about here is hypothetical possibility of placing intermediate-range missiles, which were in the Belarusian countryside in Russian time.
And Lukashenka not once read about the readiness of Belarus together with Russia to the U.S. response. It is clear that as a reward Belarusian ruler expects to return economic preferences. As possible such a scenario? "
Fedorov: "To the nearest time, this option seemed more possible, if you look at Putin’s statement. Here Our homeland could be positioned intermediate-and lower range. Strategic missiles in Belarus have no sense.
But direct note that all proper statements about the readiness to defend Russia, he did not say that he is ready to arrange missiles here. In other words, it retains some caution, though tends to return economic preferences. "
Koktyish: "I see an option for accommodation in Belarus Russian missiles as essentially zero. If it comes earlier, it is better to place missiles in Kaliningrad. If question about economic losses, the missiles in Kaliningrad will seek from the West huge funds.
But I hope it will not come earlier. After all, the U.S. Congress has blocked the initial funding for these plans. And "old" Europe is very unhappy with these South American steps. "
Likely a compromise between Russia and the U.S.?
Karbalevich: "But it seems that in the near future and increases the possibility of a compromise resolution of contradictions. U.S. offer to join Russian missile defense system.
And Putin has brought a proposal to use its own military facility in Azerbaijan. What is the feasibility of this idea? And what is the role of Belarus in this compromise version? "
Fedorov: "The United States from the outset offered fighters to track the construction of these facilities in the Czech Republic and Poland. But managing the RF does not agree.
Following statements by Putin in Europe rose powerful wave of criticism of. And he began to unscrew the back. Putin proposed the use of Russian Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan for control of Iran.
But this idea has flaws. Not convinced that it will support Azerbaijan — because it borders with Iran, beware it is not so involved in the anti-Iranian and U.S. companies.
And the next moment. If Our homeland has not believed in the sincerity of the U.S. plans (construction ABM), that they will believe the U.S. Ministry to zadeynichannya Russian radar station? But perfectly that seek out a compromise.
In the case of a compromise draft Belarus fails to use the confrontation of Russia and the United States for their own purposes. "
Karbalevich: "And those Russian military facilities, which are in Belarus, may be involved in this compromise version? "
Fedorov: "No, they are aimed at a different direction, the North Atlantic Ocean. On their speech was never in This is the meaninge ".
Koktyish "highest possible compromise. After all, we are not dealing with a true confrontation, and that game theory is called" Game tsyplyatok. "Title went from the U.S., where the children amused themselves by riding on the highway towards one another by car. Who first folded, and one chicken.
When the radar in Gabala radar station will be under Russian control, then Moscow will not need to rebuild their communications infrastructure.
As regards the role of Belarus, in this controversy it is not observed in any form. Even with a confrontational scenario will not happen RF response from Belarus and from the Kaliningrad region. Because involved in this game have no prospects Lukashenko. "

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